• One more, likely last rate hike, still needed
• The alternative option would be to hike in October or December
• Inflation remains stubbornly high, price growth expectations too far above 2%

As we move closer to the decision next week, it looks like maybe ECB policymakers are starting to break rank. This is one of the more direct and hawkish takes as compared to the others, which are just alluding to a rate hike being a mere „possibility“.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +2.3%
• Market index 183.6 vs 189.0 prior
• Purchase index 141.9 vs 144.9 prior
• Refinance index 388.1 vs 407.1 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.21% vs 7.31% prior

Mortgage applications declined once again in the past week with both purchase and refinancing activities falling. It adds to the strain in the housing market amid higher interest rates.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Last
week, Bitcoin jumped following the news that Greyscale won the lawsuit against
the SEC as the D.C. court ruled that the SEC improperly rejected the Bitcoin
spot ETF. This was seen as a positive news as Greyscale will have to reapply
for a spot ETF but that an ETF is actually coming. The market started to
“selling the fact” and eventually returned to the key support level. Looking at
the bigger picture, we have some bearish news all around as CryptoQuant reported
that Bitcoin trading volume is at its lowest in more than four years and on the
macro side we have more and more deteriorating economic data that point to a
possible recession in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024. On top of that, the central banks are
expected to keep monetary conditions tight even if we start to see more
weakness creeping in, which should ultimately make the economic conditions and
the risk sentiment worse.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin rallied
into the resistance zone
around the 28200 area where we had also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
but got rejected soon after as the market “sold the fact” on the positive
Bitcoin news. The price is now trading again at the key 25231 support. If we
see a break to the downside, Bitcoin is likely to fall all way to the 21509
level.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the buyers had
a good support zone around the 26800 level where there was also the 61.8%
Fibonacci retracement level but the price fell through it like nothing
confirming the bearish bias. We are now in a consolidation after two weeks of high
volatility, but these are generally just rests before the big moves.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a range inside the orange box. A break to the upside should see the buyers
piling in to target the 26750 level and eventually the 28200 one. On the other
hand, a break to the downside should see more sellers piling in and extend the
selloff into the 21509 level.

Upcoming Events

This week is a bit empty on the data front with just the
US ISM Services PMI today and the US Jobless Claims tomorrow being the main
highlights. If we see strong data, the market is unlikely to price an imminent
recession and thus it shouldn’t affect Bitcoin too much. On the other hand,
weak data should bring back recessionary fears and likely trigger some risk
aversion in the markets eventually weighing on Bitcoin.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.