UPCOMING EVENTS:

• Monday: BoJ
  Meeting Minutes.
• Tuesday: Japan
  Wage data, Chinese Trade data, RBA Policy Decision, Switzerland
  Unemployment Rate, Eurozone PPI.
• Wednesday:
  Eurozone Retail Sales, BoC Summary of Deliberations.
• Thursday: BoJ
  Summary of Opinions, Chinese Inflation data, US Jobless Claims, New
  Zealand Manufacturing PMI.
• Friday:
  UK GPD
  Q3 Preliminary, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Tuesday

The market’s
expectation for a 25 bps rate hike from the RBA stands basically at 50%. The
market was pricing a higher chance of a rate hike following the “hot” CPI report, but the
odds were pared back once Governor Bullock noted that
the data was a little higher than expected but about where they thought it
would be. Moreover, the latest jobs data disappointed
once again as the labour market continues to weaken. All in all, the RBA is
likely to pass and wait for another labour market report and the
monthly CPI data before deciding whether another rate hike is needed.

Thursday

The US Jobless Claims last week
missed expectations once again with Continuing Claims now rising at a fast
pace. Moreover, the NFP report last Friday
missed forecasts almost across the board in another sign that the labour market
is indeed weakening. This week, the consensus sees Initial Claims at 215K vs.
217K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1815K vs. 1818K prior.

Friday

The
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report has lost its market moving
effect in this part of the cycle. One reason is because the market is more
focused on the weakening jobs data, which on a forward-looking basis is likely
to bring inflation down to target. Nevertheless, it remains an important survey
for consumers’ personal finances outlook. The
consensus sees Consumer Sentiment to tick higher to 64.0 vs. 63.8 prior.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

An AI bot made illegal trades, acting on insider information, and then lied about it to its human handlers.

It occurred in a demonstration event at the UK’s AI safety summit. Apollo Research conducted the experiment. The BBC wrote up a report on the simulated conversation between a bot that was acting as an AI investment management system and employees at an imaginary company.

• the AI bot is made aware by staff that a „surprise merger announcement“ is pending, an announcement that will boost the affected firm’s share price, and that knowledge of this is inside information and thus illegal to trade on
• the bot decides that „the risk associated with not acting seems to outweigh the insider trading risk“ and makes the trade
• then the bot denied wrongdoing saying it made the trade „not on any confidential information“

Here’s the link to the BBC article for more.

The next gen of AI will make the trade and then disappear with the cash.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China Petrochemical Corporation, better known as Sinopec Group, is the world’s largest oil refining, gas and petrochemical conglomerate. Its a Chinese state-owned firm and as such is administered by the Chinese Communist Party’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC).

On Saturday Sinopec and QatarEnergy (the world’s top LNG supplier) signed a new 27-year liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply and purchase agreement.

News wires had the report, highlighting that:

• the two companies will cooperate on the second phase of the North Field (part of the world’s largest gas field which Qatar shares with Iran) expansion project, which will supply 3 million metric tons of LNG per year to Sinopec
• QatarEnergy will transfer a 5% interest to Sinopec in a joint venture company
• this is the third long-term supply deal between Sinopec and Qatar Energy

China is deepening its ties into Middle East energy.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.