Die CDU plant nach Worten ihres Parteichefs keinen Widerstand gegen die Pläne des Finanzministers. Deutliche Kritik kommt derweil aus Bayern.
In einem Interview fordert Rainer Dulger die Bundesregierung auf, ihre Klimapläne zurückzufahren. Die Unternehmen könnten die verlangten Investitionen nicht leisten.
Wirtschaftsministerin Badenoch kündigt Investitionen in die Autobranche und die Luft- und Raumfahrt an. Großbritannien will mit dem Geld private Investoren anlocken.
Bei seinen Angriffen zielt Russland immer wieder auf wichtige ukrainische Hafenanlagen. Jetzt gibt es EU-Aufbauhilfen. Russland will in der Nacht derweil zehn ukrainische Drohnen abgewehrt haben.The CAD is ending the day as the strongest of the major currencies while the USD is the weakest.
Canada retail sales came in much stronger than expected with a gain of 0.6% for the month. That was much higher than the 0.0% gain expected. The ex-auto came in at 0.2% vs -0.2% est, while ex-auto and gas did show a -0.3% decline. The September advance „guesstimate“ had growth at 0.0%. So the number was quite a surprise.
Contributing to the strong CAD was that the advance estimate for October came in at 0.8%.
The data helped to push the USDCAD lower (higher CAD) with the pair testing the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the July low at 1.35908. The price bounced off of that target and is trading at 1.3611 as the market winds down for the holiday-shortened week.
The fall in the USD came despite a rise in yields that saw the US 10-year yield move up 5.4 basis points at 4.470%. The divergence could be explained by the technical breaks. For the US 10 year yield, it moved away from support at 4.34%. For the USD, it had its own breaks in some of the major currency pairs today which propelled the greenback lower.
For a technical review of the dynamics, click on video below:
The bond market closed early today with the final numbers showing:
In the US stock market, the price action was limited with the Dow closing higher, the S&P near unchanged and the Nasdaq down marginally:
For the trading week, the major indices closed higher for the 4th consecutive week gain:
Next week, the RBNZ will announce their latest decision on rates with expectations for no change (8 PM ET on Tuesday) at 5.50%. The RBNZ has kept rates unchanged since May and plans to keep them steady for the foreseeable future. The central bank views the current rate as restrictive and believes it needs to remain at this level throughout the next year. The RBNZ sees interest rates as constraining economic activity and reducing inflationary pressure, with inflation expected to decline to target levels by the second half of 2024. Recent data, including softer-than-expected CPI and Labor Cost Index figures in Q3, supports the central bank’s current approach, and the decline in employment is likely seen as progress in its restrictive policy goals.
German preliminary CPI will be announced on Wednesday with the expectations for a decline of -0.1% vs 0.0% last month.
US PCE and Core PCE data will be released on Thursday. The headline PCE price index remained unchanged at 0.0% month-on-month (MoM) in October, compared to the previous month’s increase of 0.4%. Meanwhile, the Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.2% MoM, slightly cooling from the 0.3% pace seen in September. This data is crucial in confirming the trend of easing inflation, as indicated by the October CPI report. Recall, the October CPI showed a decline from 3.7% to 3.2% in headline inflation and from 4.1% to 4.0% in core inflation, both falling below consensus expectations. These trends have led to diminished expectations for an interest rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in December. Markets believe that further declines in inflation may prompt discussions about potential interest rate cuts in 2024. Currently, the market fully priced in a rate cut for June.
ON Friday, US ISM PMI for November will be released (at 10 AM ET). The expectations are for an increase to 47.7, compared to the previous reading of 46.7. A reading below 50 is indicative of contracting manufacturing.
Also on tap next week is the OPEC+ meeting on November 30. The JMMC meeting for OPEC+ that was originally scheduled for November 26th was rescheduled to November 30th as members debated production cuts. The meeting is not expected to bring policy changes, but there are discussions about Saudi Arabia and Russia potentially extending or deepening their voluntary production cuts. Saudi Arabia has expressed dissatisfaction with the production levels of certain members, particularly Angola and Nigeria, and compliance among members is expected to be a point of emphasis. Possible scenarios for the meeting include an extension of current cuts, deeper production cuts, or maintaining the status quo. Currently, Saudi Arabia and Russia, along with other OPEC+ members, have collectively committed to reducing oil production by approximately 5.2 million barrels per day (BPD), with additional voluntary reductions from Saudi Arabia and Russia. These cuts account for around 5% of the world’s daily oil demand, and the commitment to these reductions has been extended into 2023.
Wishing you all a great and healthy weekend.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The final numbers are showing:
The Russell 2000 closed the day up 11.95 points or 0.67% at 1807.50.
For the trading week, the major indices are closing higher for the 4th consecutive week:
The Russell 2000 rose 0.54% for its 3rd increase in the last 4 weeks for the small cap index.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
ECB’s Muller is chatting late on Friday in Europe saying:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Job cuts beget job cuts. Banks and financial institutions tend to march to the same drum when they hire (the competition for deals is intense) and also when they get over their skis with too many hires.
Major U.S. banks have been quietly downsizing their workforces throughout this year, despite the economy’s unexpected resilience, and some of the most significant layoffs are yet to come. JPMorgan Chase stands out as an exception among the largest banks, as it has not announced any layoffs and has even expanded its workforce. However, the next five largest U.S. banks have collectively cut around 20,000 jobs in 2023. These job reductions have been driven by various factors, including the impact of higher interest rates on the mortgage business, reduced Wall Street deal-making, and higher funding costs.
Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs have made significant reductions in their workforces, with each cutting about 5% of their employees this year. While Goldman Sachs has already gone through several rounds of cuts.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The major European indices are closing the day marginally higher:
For the trading week, Spain’s Ibex led the upside, while the UK FTSE 100 and Italy’s FTSE MIB closed lower for the week. :
As London/European traders head for the exit, the CAD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. THe USD is also lower with the greenback falling 0.62% vs the CAD, 0.56% vs the NZD, and 0.57% vs the GBP. The Canada retail sales data came in stronger than expected helping to send that currency higher today.
US stocks are muddling along with the S&P above and below unchanged. The Dow is higher. The Nasdaq is lower.
Crude oil is down -$0.84 at $76.26. OPEC+ is reportedly close to a deal to resolve African oil quota dispute. They will meet on November 30th.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.