It is a holiday-stricken week in markets and even with it being a busier December than usual this year, the final trading week of the year should be a quiet one with little to work with in general. There’s not much use trying to pinpoint anything to be a factor during this time as flows are thin across all asset classes.

This is more of a period to reflect back on things and get yourself prepared for the new year. So, even with there being some expiries on the board for later this week, don’t be too fussed about it. Liquidity conditions are thin so that is the more pertinent factor at play for the next few days.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

I’d like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and happy holidays! Have a wonderful festive period and rest up well for 2024. 🙂

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• We cannot pre-set timing of future policy change
• But would like to make appropriate decision while scrutinising economic developments
• In an economy where positive inflation is sustained, nominal rates will be high
• Will patiently maintain monetary easing to ensure that conditions are right for such cycle to be sustained

Once again, all of this just points towards the fact that they are pushing all the anticipation and attention to next year’s spring wage negotiations. The question then will be, can the BOJ follow through to normalise policy?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

I was expecting something quieter last week but it was busy and volatile all week. Stats agencies tend to rush out December releases so they don’t have to release as much between Christmas and New Years.

For Monday, all major western markets are closed but the FX market is open as always.

The lone releases on the calendar are from Japan, which will release November unemployment data.

Merry Christmas.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

In a recent push of back-channel diplomacy, Russian President Vlad Putin has been sending a message: He is ready to make a deal for a Ukraine ceasefire. The New York Times made the report yesterday, saying that he’s been signaling through intermediaries since at least Sept that he is open to a cease-fire that freeze the fighting along the current lines.

They cite „two former senior Russian officials close to the Kremlin and American and international officials“ who have received the message.

The report also says that some American officials say it could be a Kremlin attempt at
misdirection and a Kremlin official said the reporting is incorrect. One timeline to be aware of is the March Russian election, as Putin may want a deal beforehand.

Whenever I see a report like this, I wonder who leaked it and why. The days of real ‚journalism‘ of long over and anything like this is planted by someone, for some reason. After reading this report, I wonder if a message is being sent to Kyiv.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The global shipping market is certainly top of mind as we celebrate a holiday weekend. Yemen continues to threaten the Red Sea but now there are worries about a wider threat to shipping. Iran said it could shut down the Gibraltar Strait, which is something that most people doubt. At the same time, the latest attack defies belief.

„The motor vessel CHEM PLUTO, a Liberia-flagged, Japanese-owned, and Netherlands-operated chemical tanker was struck at approximately 10 a.m. local time (6 a.m. GMT) yesterday in the Indian Ocean, 200 nautical miles from the coast of India, by a one-way attack drone fired from Iran,“ a Pentagon spokesperson told Reuters.

Either Iran had some very bad intel, the Pentagon is playing games or Iran is playing an incredibly stupid game.

In any case, the stakes for global shipping and the oil market continue to rise. I’ll be interested to see how crude trades in the next few days.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.