• Rates likely to need to remain around current levels
• We remain vigilant to financial stability risks that might arise

He is commenting alongside the release of the financial stability report earlier here. So far, the above isn’t anything new as they continue to preach the higher for longer narrative considering where inflation is at.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• The BoE kept interest rates
  unchanged as expected at the last meeting.
• The central bank is leaning towards
  keeping interest rates “higher for longer”, although it keeps a door open for
  further tightening if inflationary pressures were to be more persistent.
• The BoE members continue to repeat
  that they will keep rates high for long enough to get inflation back to target.
• The latest employment report beat
  expectations with wage growth remaining at elevated levels.
• The recent UK CPI missed
  expectations across the board, which was a welcome development for the BoE.
• The UK PMIs beat expectations on
  both the Manufacturing and Services measures, with the Services sector crawling
  back in expansion.
• The latest UK Retail Sales missed
  expectations across the board by a big margin as consumer spending remains
  weak.
• The market expects the BoE to start
  cutting rates in Q3 2024

JPY

• The BoJ kept its monetary policy basically
  unchanged at the last meeting but formally widened the YCC to 1% on the 10-year
  JGBs stating that it will be a reference cap.
• Governor Ueda repeated once again
  that they won’t hesitate to take easing measures if needed and that they are
  not foreseeing sustainable price increases.
• The Japanese CPIshowed that inflation pressures are easing although
  they remain well above the BoJ’s 2% target.
• The latest Unemployment Rate
  remained unchanged near cycle lows.
• The Japanese Manufacturing PMI fell
  further into contraction, but the Services PMI ticked higher remaining in
  expansion.
• The latest Japanese wage data beat
  expectations and as a reminder the BoJ is focusing on wage growth to decide
  whether to tweak its monetary policy.
• The market expects the BoJ to hike
  rates in Q2 2024.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that GBPJPY is now
near the key trendline where we have also the confluence with the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level. This is where the buyers should step in with a defined risk
below the trendline to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish
bets into the 178.00 handle.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the
bearish setup around the trendline and the Fibonacci level. If we do get a
bounce on the trendline, the buyers will then need to break above the
counter-trendline and the 186.30 resistance to confirm a rally into new highs.
The sellers, on the other hand, will lean on the counter-trendline to try again
a break below the major trendline.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price is starting to diverge with the MACD right near the key trendline. This
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the sellers will need a break below the trendline to
confirm the reversal and invalidate the bullish setup, while the buyers will
need a break above the counter-trendline to confirm the reversal and increase
the bullish bets into new highs.

Upcoming Events

Today we have another US
labour market report with the release of the US ADP data. Tomorrow, it will be
the time for the US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the
week with the NFP report. Weak US data is likely to weigh on global yields and
favour the JPY, while strong figures might keep the pair supported.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• Risk environment remains challenging
• Some risky asset valuations continue to appear stretched
• Banking system is well capitalised, some evidence to net interest margins have peaked
• Vulnerabilities in market-based finance remain significant
• Full report

The key thing to note is that they say that businesses and households are still able to cope so far with higher interest rates. While there are risks to that in the short-to-medium term, the central bank is not quite in a mode to urgently scale back on tighter policy just yet.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The major currencies bloc is showing little change for the most part, with just some minor extensions to the narrow ranges from earlier. EUR/USD continues to sit flattish near 1.0800, with large option expiries also in play while USD/JPY is up by just 0.1% to 147.30 levels.

The commodity currencies are holding a slender lead against the dollar, amid a slightly better risk mood. That being said, the gains in stocks are not really overwhelming as of yet so that is keeping traders on their toes for now. AUD/USD is up just 0.3% to 0.6570, a slight drop from around 0.6590 earlier in the session.

In the bond market, yields are a touch higher but we still have the US ADP employment data to work through so that will be one to watch in case it leads to any broader market moves later in the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.