The policy decision later should be a more straightforward one. There will be no changes in the key rates and the language and forward guidance will be similar to what we have gotten in December last month. There will not be any surprises on that front and that means the focus and attention will be on Lagarde’s press conference instead. So, what can we look forward to?

To keep things short, I only see two likelihoods in which there will be a notable reaction in markets.

The first would be Lagarde going on record to rule out rate cuts for March and April. As things stand, traders are not eyeing a move in March but are pricing in ~71% odds of a 25 bps cut in April.

Lagarde can point to a number of factors here such as developments in the Red Sea, wanting to wait on the outlook for wage pressures, and even just alluding to the fact that they’re not satisfied with the disinflation narrative just yet. On the final point, it will mostly come down to her tone.

What makes this an option and arguably the best outcome for the euro currency and for higher yields, is that Lagarde has to be rather explicit about it. Any ways in which she is viewed to be more timid would quickly withdraw the above playbook.

The second likelihood will be Lagarde deciding to be vague and leave open the door for a rate cut in March or April. I wouldn’t put it past her to do so but that will definitely knock the euro lower and give traders a reason to look to fully price in a move for April once again. Risk assets should also get a slight lift if Lagarde does decide to pursue this route.

All that being said, the most likely scenario is one that sees a rather dull reaction in markets. It is the case where Lagarde just mostly talks about being data-dependent and offers some light pushback to the current market pricing. She won’t explicitly rule out a rate cut as early as April but is likely to say that such a move could be fitting „by the summer“.

At the same time, she is to acknowledge better inflation developments in recent months but will argue that the job is not done and price pressures could be a bit more resistant for the time being.

That will maintain the status quo that we’re seeing and force traders to wait on the March meeting before taking stock of the ECB outlook again.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

That’s a big drop in the headline reading as UK retail sales fall at its fastest pace in 3 years this January. Adding to the worrying picture is that the volume of sales for this time of the year is seen at -47, the lowest reading since May 2020. CBI notes that:

„Looking ahead, demand conditions will remain challenging as higher interest rates continue to feed through to mortgage payments and household incomes.“

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, the Dow Jones dropped following the big
beat in the US PMIs as the
rise in Treasury yields weighed on the market. The data was still in support of
the soft-landing narrative with the commentary in the PMI report citing fastest
output growth in seven months and sharp cooling in inflation. Given the
resilience of the labour market and consumer spending, the rate cuts continue
to be pushed back a little, but as long as the disinflationary trend remains
intact, we can expect the Fed to proceed with the “insurance” cuts anyway.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones yesterday
fell into the close with the price now standing right around the previous high
and the blue 8 moving average. This is
where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level
to position for a rally into another all-time high. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to target a bigger correction
into the 37066 level.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we
have a good support zone around the previous high as there’s also the confluence with
the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and the moving averages. A break
below the support should give the sellers even more conviction for a drop into
the 37066 level.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
recent price action formed what looks like a double top with
the support zone around the previous high being the neckline. What happens
around this level will likely decide where the price will go in the next few
weeks. A bounce should lead to a rally while a breakout is likely to trigger a
selloff into the 37066 level.

Upcoming Events

Today we will see the Advance US Q4 GDP and the
latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US
PCE report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Digital pound would enhance user choice by complementing, not replacing cash transactions
• There would be further public consultation on a digital pound prior to introduction of any primary legislation by the government
• Upon completion of design phase around the middle of the decade, BOE and the government will decide on whether to proceed to create a digital pound
• Digital pound would only be introduced once both houses of parliament had passes the relevant legislation
• The legislation introduced would guarantee users‘ privacy
• Digital pound would be a claim on the BOE, unlike unbacked cryptocurrency assets

I wouldn’t expect them to rush or push too hard on this matter. As things stand, no major central bank is committing too keenly on this project. China was among the first big names to try and pioneer it but the take up has been rather underwhelming to say the least.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Is TSLA stock a but after its big earnings drop?

The recent earnings announcement from Tesla, last night on 24 Jan 2024, has resulted in a notable 7% to 8% decline in its stock price so far, sparking discussions among investors about potential buying opportunities. This situation has brought to light a unique investment strategy that introduces a staggering 12 to 1 reward-to-risk ratio, particularly appealing to long-term investors looking to capitalize on Tesla’s current market position.

A patience-rewarding tade strategy for TSLA stock
Itai Levitan at ForexLive.com suggests to consider, at your own risk, a strategic approach for investors eyeing Tesla’s stock. The identified trading range for Tesla, spanning from $100 to $400, has been consistent since August 2020. This range is characterized by significant trading activity and is anchored by two pivotal price levels: the value area high at $162.50 and the value area low at $142.78.

The strategy is based on patience and precision, recommending buy orders at key points. The initial buy order is set at $163.77, with subsequent buy orders at $157.73, $142.78, and $131.76. These points target the lower ends of the identified range, aiming for an advantageous entry into the market.

TSLA STOCK TECHNICAL ANALYSIS VIDEO, PRICE FORCAST AND LONG TERM TRADE PLAN WITH A 12 TO 1 REWAR VS RISK POTENTIAL

• Averaging out an attractive entry price for this Tesla stock trade plan
  If the market fills all these orders, the average entry price consolidates at $148.82. This average reflects the comprehensive cost per share across the entire investment, offering a balanced entry point.
• Always have a stop, in ths case sell your TSLA Long position close to 141
  To manage potential risks, a stop-loss order is advised at 5% below the average entry price, at $141.38 . This tactic is crucial for limiting losses in case of unexpected market downturns.

Unlocking high reward potential for this long-term TSLA trade plan
The strategy’s strength lies in its extremely high reward-to-risk ratio. Two profit-taking levels are identified: $197.13 and $238.00. The first level offers a 6 to 1 ratio, where traders would sell a third of third Long position, while the second a 12 to 1, fo selling another third of the position, an the third profit target at 18 to 1, thus averages the potential to an impressive 12 to 1.

Effective risk management and profit taking, a third at each profit target
It is recommended to liquidate one-third of the position at each profit-taking level. This method allows for securing gains while also mitigating the risk of market reversals.

This investment approach is tailored for those who are patient and willing to wait for the market to align with the identified price ranges. It’s a strategy more suited for long-term investors rather than those looking for immediate returns. Do return to ForexLive.com for future updates and various views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.