• Tuesday: Japan
  CPI, US Durable Goods Orders, US Consumer Confidence.
• Wednesday:
  Australia Monthly CPI, RBNZ Policy Decision, US Q4 GDP 2nd
  Estimate.
• Thursday: Japan
  Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Australia Retail Sales, Switzerland
  Q4 GDP, Canada GDP, US PCE, US Jobless Claims.
• Friday: Japan
  Unemployment Rate, Chinese PMIs, Switzerland Retail Sales, Eurozone CPI
  and Unemployment Rate, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Tuesday

The Japanese Core CPI Y/Y is expected at
1.8% vs. 2.3% prior while there’s no consensus on the other measures although
the prior Headline CPI Y/Y printed at 2.6% and the Core-Core CPI Y/Y came at
3.7%. The Tokyo
CPI, which is seen as a
leading indicator for national inflation, surprised recently falling much more
than expected with almost all the measures dropping below the BoJ’s 2% target.
Even if the BoJ decides to exit the NIRP, it looks like it’s going to be just a
one and done.

The US Consumer Confidence has been rising
in the past couple of months. The present situation index increased
substantially the last
time, which might have been a hint for
the strong January NFP report released a week later. In fact, compared to the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which shows more how the consumers
see their personal finances, the Consumer Confidence shows how the consumers
see the labour market.
The consensus sees the index remaining unchanged at 114.8 in February.

Wednesday

The Australian Monthly CPI Y/Y is expected
at 3.5% vs. 3.4% prior. The RBA focuses more on the quarterly CPI readings,
but the monthly indicator is timelier and can be a guide for the trend, especially
at turning points. The Core measures will be more important but overall, this
report is unlikely to change much for the central bank.

The RBNZ is expected to keep the OCR
unchanged at 5.50%. There is a very slight chance of a hike with the ANZ bank
recently forecasting the central bank to raise rates to 6.00%. The data
though doesn’t call for such a move at the moment with the last GDP
reading surprisingly showing a strong contraction and the disinflationary
trend remaining intact. The unemployment
rate has also been rising steadily, so
there’s no real indication for a rate hike.

Thursday

The US PCE Y/Y is expected at 2.4% vs.
2.6% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.2% prior. The Core PCE
Y/Y is expected at 2.8% vs. 2.9% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.4%
vs. 0.2% prior. Forecasters can reliably estimate the PCE once the CPI and
PPI are out, so the market already knows what to expect. Therefore, we are
unlikely to see big reactions unless the data surprises on either side.

The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the
state of the labour market. Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle
lows, while Continuing Claims remain firm around cycle highs. This week the
consensus sees Initial Claims at 210K vs. 201K prior,
while there’s no consensus for Continuing Claims at the time of writing
although the last week’s data showed a decrease to 1862K vs. 1889K prior.

Friday

The Eurozone CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.5%
vs. 2.8% prior, while the Core Y/Y measure is seen at 2.9% vs. 3.3% prior. The
Core 3-month and 6-month annualised rates are already below the ECB’s 2%
target, but the central bank is adamant on its patience stance and some
members, including President Lagarde, stated that they want to see the Q1 2024
wage data before considering a rate cut. The market is fully pricing a 25 bps
rate cut in June and despite the ECB’s message, the market will likely price
back in an April cut if the data misses expectations.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected
at 49.5 vs. 49.1 prior. The expectations are skewed to the upside as the S&P
Global Manufacturing PMI showed another
increase in February to 51.5 vs. 50.7 in the prior month. The generally
commentary was upbeat as the sector is experiencing a rebound from the
recessionary phase in the last 2 years.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

In the dynamic world of stock trading, the NASDAQ Composite Index remains a focal point for investors and traders alike. With markets fluctuating based on a myriad of factors, understanding the technical landscape is crucial for those looking to navigate the waters of investment successfully. In this article, we distill the complex world of NASDAQ technical analysis into key insights, drawing on the expertise of Itai Levitan from ForexLive.com, to prepare you for the market opening this Monday.

Understanding the Current NASDAQ Landscape

• Ascending Wedge and Trading Range: Recent NASDAQ movements have showcased an ascending wedge, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics. This pattern also represents a trading range, with prices oscillating within a defined area before the observed breakdown.
• Critical Price Movements
  • The market witnessed a significant retest, where prices attempted to re-enter the trading range, touching upon the previous all-time high of 18,121.5 before experiencing a sharp decline.
  • The week concluded with prices failing to re-enter the channel or test its upper boundaries, hinting at a bearish sentiment.

Key Technical Indicators and What They Signify

• The Importance of the Blue Line in the above Nasdaq technical analysis video: As long as prices remain below this crucial level, the bullish case loses its momentum, signaling caution among traders.
• Regression Channel and Range Identification: A closer look at the regression channel from a recent low suggests the presence of a trading range, providing insights into potential price movements.
• Anchored VWAP Analysis: Utilizing the anchored VWAP from a significant low offers a deeper understanding of buyer sentiment and potential support levels, marking the 17,450 – 17,460 zone as a critical area for observation.

Strategies and Expectations for Traders

• Bearish vs. Bullish Scenarios: The analysis suggests a shift towards a bearish perspective, with the failure to cross above the pivotal 18,050-18,100 zone. However, traders should also be prepared for potential bullish signals, should prices clear key resistance levels.
• The Role of the VWAP and Trend Lines: The VWAP acts as the lower boundary of the current trading range, with trend lines indicating the upper limits. This structure provides traders with a framework for assessing market direction and potential entry or exit points.

Conclusion and Trading Tips

Navigating the NASDAQ’s technical terrain requires a blend of analytical prowess and strategic foresight. By breaking down complex patterns into actionable insights, traders can approach the market with a clearer understanding and a strategic edge.

• Trade with Caution: Always be mindful of the inherent risks in trading, making decisions based on a comprehensive analysis and your risk tolerance.
• Stay Informed: For those looking to deepen their market knowledge, returning to reputable sources like ForexLive.com can offer additional perspectives and updates.

As we approach the upcoming trading week, keeping these technical analysis insights in mind can help traders align their strategies with the current market dynamics. Remember, success in the trading world is often a result of informed decision-making and strategic planning that you can find at ForexLive.com. Happy trading!

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.