The following video shows my opion and bitcoin price forecast with some trade ideas

• Current Position: Bitcoin hovers around $51,615, facing double resistance. 🚫📈
• Market Movement: Recent break from a bullish pattern, now at a pivotal bearish juncture. 📉🐻
• Trade Strategy: Bearish bias with a stop-loss above $54,300 for risk management. 🛑💡
• Position Sizing: Adjust size for an optimal reward-to-risk ratio; aim for meaningful profits. ⚖️💼
• Profit Targets: First partial profit at a cautious 1.32 reward-to-risk, with a long-term aim below $50,000. 🎯💵
• Adjustments: Refine stop-loss and targets for a potential average ratio of 1.65, enhancing trade viability. 🔧📊
• Risk Mitigation: For non-traders, consider reducing exposure to mitigate risk at this uncertain juncture. 🛡️👀

This snapshot provides a strategic outlook for navigating Bitcoin’s volatility. Remember, trade wisely and at your own risk. For more detailed guidance and updates, as well as other views, follow ForexLive.com. 🌐💡

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• US January PPI +0.9% vs +0.6% expected
• US February UMich prelim consumer sentiment 79.6 vs 80.0 expected
• US January housing starts 1.331 million versus 1.460 million estimate
• SF Fed Pres.Mary Daly: More work to do on inflation
• Daly Q&A: None of the recent data was surprising
• BOE’s Pill: Getting to the point of reducing Bank Rates „still some way off“
• Joe Manchin won’t run for President – report
• Trump fined $364 million in fraud case
• Fed’s Bostic says he was a little surprised by CPI report
• Baker Hughes rig count -2 in the current week.
• Fed’s Barr: Supervisors closely focused on commercial real estate risks
• Fed’s Barkin: January economic data has been messy, not that good
• Canada December wholesale sales +0.3% vs +0.8% expected

Markets:

• Gold up $9 to $2013
• US 10-year yields up 4.3 bps to 4.28%
• WTI crude oil up $1.20 to $79.23
• S&P 500 down 0.5%
• NZD leads, JPY lags

The hot PPI reading initially looked like it would kick off something like CPI did earlier in the week, albeit at a smaller scale. The dollar initially sold off, stocks fell and yields popped but it didn’t last. The dollar highs for the day were immediately after the release and then the questions started.

As I highlighted before the release, there might be seasonal adjustment factors at play in January BLS inflation data. CPI and import/export prices were both surprisingly high and now PPI has joined in to complete the trio. Those are three different data sets but all are seasonally adjusted so maybe there is something going on? January is particularly hard to adjust for because of turn-of-the-year price resets.

Or maybe I’m overthinking it. Fed officials today again brushed off the high inflation numbers, highlighting instead that the trend remains down. The big turn in the markets this week came after the Powell leak on Tuesday and that has grown into the consensus.

In any case, the dollar gave back all its PPI gains in about 90 minutes and then continued even lower against the euro, pound and Australian dollar. However those overshoots were later faded as stocks were hit by late selling. I’m not sure if those late moves in stocks were on options expiration, Middle East worries or the long weekend but the moves accelerated late. The air also came out of SMCI so maybe that’s a sign that the bubble is deflating in AI (though I doubt it’s bursting).

Ultimately, most FX levels finished close to flat. I’ll be watching on Sunday for news out of the PBOC on rates and I suspect some of the buying in Chinese stocks, copper and antipodeans on Friday were related to rate cut hopes/signals, or some other kind of stimulus.

Commodities were notable outperformers across the board with gold quickly rebounding from the PPI number and oil bouncing around before finishing just below the January high That will be an interesting spot to watch in the week ahead.

Enjoy the long weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing lower on the day and for the trading week. The declines for the weeks snap a 5-week winning streak. The declines on the day come after two days of higher closes. The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 were the biggest losers as rates moved higher, and some of the high flyers saw profit-taking.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average fell -145.15 points or -0.37% at 38627.98
• S&P index fell -24.16 points or -0.48% at 5005.56
• NASDAQ index fell -130.53 points or -0.82% at 15775.64

For the Russell 2000 it fell -28.73 points or -1.39% at 2032.74

For the trading week:

• Dow Industrial Average fell -0.11%
• S&P index fell -0.42%
• NASDAQ index fell -1.34%

For the Russell 2000 and actually rose 1.132% this week.

Looking at some of the big movers:

• Super Micro Computers after extending up to a high $1077, tumbled and closed at $803 down $201 or -20.02%.. Despite the tumbled the shares still rose 8.51% this week
• Adobe tumbled $-43.78 or -7.41% to $546.66. Shares of Adobe fell -12.84% this week.
• Meta fell $-10.70 or -2.21% at $473.33. For the week who rose 1.11%
• Alphabet fell $-2.25 or -1.58% at $140.52. For the week shares tumbled -5.69%
• Microsoft fell $-2.50 or -0.61% at $404.06. For the week the shares fell -3.92%
• Arm Holdings fell $-5.34 or -3.99% at $128.34. For the week, the shares still rose 11.4%.
• Broadcom fell $-19.59 or -1.55% at 1245.48. For the week, the shares fell -2.96%
• Micron fell $-2.13 or -2.61% at $79.50. For the week, the shares fell -7.08%
• Apple fell $-1.56 or -0.85% at $182.24. For the week, shares-5.69%
• Nvidia shares fell $-0.45 or -0.06% at $726.13. For the week, shares rose 0.66%. Nvidia reports its earnings next week.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Here’s the latest from the New York Times:

Israel carried out covert attacks on two major gas pipelines inside Iran
this week, disrupting the flow of heat and cooking gas to provinces
with millions of people, according to two Western officials and a
military strategist affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Now I don’t know if that’s true or false. Earlier blame was placed groups in Saudi Arabia and other enemies in Iran. A chemical factory explosion was also done by Israel, according to the report.

What I can’t figure out is why this was leaked. To be clear, there are no ‚old fashioned‘ leaks on stuff like this except in extraordinary cases like Edward Snowden. When leaks like this happen — especially to the New York Times — it’s deliberate.

The ‚two Western officials‘ is vague but rules out Iran but it’s an odd thing for US officials to leak because it would seemingly escalate things towards a war that they seem to be trying to avoid.

Maybe this is a clue:

One Western official called it a major symbolic strike that was fairly
easy for Iran to repair and caused relatively little harm to civilians.
But, the official said, it sent a stark warning of the damage that
Israel could inflict, as conflict spreads across the Middle East and
tensions rise between Iran and its adversaries, notably Israel and the
United States

For me, that doesn’t add up because Iran would obviously know Israel is capable of sabotaging a pipeline, which is a trivial thing to do at the state level. Israel has sabotaged nuclear facilities in Iran and killed people, which are obviously tougher tasks.

Your guess is as good as mine as to what’s going on here. These are the three reporters behind the story:

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Likely Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump will have to write another big check after he lost a civil fraud case in New York. A judge fined him $364 million and barred him from running any business in the state for three years.

During the three-month trial he was accused of inflating asset values in order to get better terms on loans.

“In order to borrow more and at lower rates, defendants submitted
blatantly false financial data to the accountants, resulting in
fraudulent financial statements,” presiding judge Arthur Engoron wrote. “When confronted at
trial with the statements, defendants’ fact and expert witnesses simply
denied reality, and defendants failed to accept responsibility or to
impose internal controls to prevent future recurrences.”

The case was littered with legal mistakes from Trump’s team.

He will surely appeal but under New York law he will be required to put up a large chunk of the damages in escrow.

In a separate case last year of sexual assault and defamation he lost and was fined $88.3 million.

He remains the betting favourite to be in the White House at this time next year.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.