• Dollar continues to get checked back to start the week
• BOE’s Mann: Markets are pricing in too many rate cuts
• ECB’s Muller: We are closer to the point to start cutting rates
• BOJ notes that core inflation measures were lower in February than in the month before
• Germany April GfK consumer sentiment -27.4 vs -27.9 expected
• Spain Q4 final GDP +0.6% vs +0.6% q/q prelim
• Large ship collides with Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, causing it to collapse
• China president Xi reportedly to meet with US business executives later this week
• North Korea shuns proposed summit with Japan

Markets:

• NZD leads, CHF lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
• US 10-year yields down 1.3 bps to 4.239%
• Gold up 1.1% to $2,196.42
• WTI crude up 0.2% to $81.56
• Bitcoin down 0.4% to $70,655

It was a slow session in terms of headlines but there were some decent market moves overall.

The dollar continues to be checked back as it slips a little further to start the new week. And that comes as the risk mood is faring better after the sluggish showing yesterday.

EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0860 although large option expiries are keeping a lid on the pair for now. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is also up 0.2% to 1.2660 as buyers contest the 100-hour moving average at 1.2667 on the session. USD/JPY was more muted though, holding little changed at 151.35 in a mere 25 pips range today.

The Swiss franc is the laggard as USD/CHF keeps above 0.9000, with the SNB rate cut still reverberating. As for commodity currencies, they are taking advantage of the better mood in equities for now. USD/CAD is down 0.2% to 1.3560 while AUD/USD is up 0.2% to 0.6553 on the day.

In the equities space, things got off to a lackluster start but we are seeing some quiet optimism seep through now. S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% and European indices are pushing higher as well, not letting up on the gains in the last few weeks.

In other markets, gold is also ripping higher as the bulls eye another attempt at the $2,200 level. The precious metal is up over 1% to sit around $2,196 currently. Meanwhile, Bitcoin saw a brief surge up to $71,569 before pulling back a little in volatile trading so far today.

Outside of markets, there was a tragic accident in Baltimore as a large ship collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge and caused a portion of the bridge to collapse. Thoughts and prayers to those affected by the incident.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed
  three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth
  and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.
• Fed Chair Powell
  maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was premature to react to the
  recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way to their 2% target.
• The US CPI and
  the US PPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month.
• The US Jobless Claims beat
  expectations across the board.
• The latest US Manufacturing
  PMI
  beat expectations while the Services PMI missed slightly. Both the measures
  remain in expansion though.
• The market expects the first rate cut in June.

EUR

• The ECB left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting revising inflation and growth expectations
  downwards and maintaining the usual data dependent language.
• The recent Eurozone CPI beat
  expectations.
• The labour market remains historically
  tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.
• The latest Eurozone PMIs beat
  expectations on the Services side while the Manufacturing one missed dropping
  further in contraction.
• The market expects the ECB to cut rates in June.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD sold off
into the weekend as the US data surprised once again to the upside. The trend
might have changed as the price continues to print lower lows and lower highs
with the moving averages being
crossed to the downside. The price bounced on the 1.08 handle as the selloff
got a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving
average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving
average or some consolidation before the next move.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair
bounced on a key support around
the 1.08 handle and it’s now at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above
the Fibonacci level to position for a drop back into the 1.08 support targeting
a break below it. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.10 handle.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the key levels marked on the chart. We now have a counter-trendline and
the red 21 moving average giving support for the buyers. If we were to get a
pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline to position for a rally
into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the US Durable Goods Orders and the US
Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow, we have Fed’s Waller speaking. On
Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude with the US PCE and Fed Chair Powell.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 futures are now seen up 0.4% with tech shares leading the way once again. Nasdaq futures are up 0.6% and that is underpinning the overall risk mood in European morning trade. In Europe itself, regional indices are climbing after a more tentative start. And that is putting a slight drag on the dollar as seen here.

The DAX is now up 0.5% with the CAC 40 up 0.2% on the day. UK stocks are the laggard but even the FTSE 100 is now flat on the session after a slow start.

In other markets, gold is surging once again as the precious metal is up 0.9% to above $2,190 while Bitcoin is also slightly higher to and nudging just above $71,000. The latter is returning to its highest levels since 15 March currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The moves are relatively light but it continues from the slight drop in the dollar from yesterday. And that follows from the stronger gains at the end of last week for the greenback. As such, it is looking to be a case of the dollar getting checked back so far to start the new week. EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0855 but continues to sit just under its 100-day moving average for now:

There are also some large option expiries at 1.0860-70 that are likely to limit any further gains. However, buyers are starting to contest a break above the 100-hour moving average of 1.0853 now. Push above that and the near-term bias switches to being more neutral. But the 100-day moving average at 1.0873 remains a key ceiling to watch in the bigger picture.

Elsewhere, USD/JPY is down slightly by 0.1% to 151.28 but trapped in a relatively narrow range under 25 pips today. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is up 0.2% to 1.2660 as it pushes back past its own 100-day moving average of 1.2636 currently. But there is some near-term resistance from the 100-hour moving average at 1.2667 next.

Besides that, USD/CAD is backing away from the 1.3600 mark to 1.3568 at the moment while AUD/USD is up 0.2% to 0.6550 on the day. The latter is testing its own 200-day moving average at 0.6550 as well as its 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 0.6548-55. Push above those levels and buyers will seize more control in trying to return to an upside bias.

The dollar’s slight weakness on the day comes as equities are slowly nudging higher during the session. S&P 500 futures are at the highs now, up 0.4% on the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Data may confirm inflation trend going into June meeting

As mentioned before, the ECB is waiting on wages data that will be released later in May before firming up any language on a rate cut in June. Until then, one can expect them to stick with the current narrative for the time being. Carry on as you will.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.