Just some token remarks there by Panetta. As things stand, the ECB is waiting on wages data in May before firming up their conviction for a move in June.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones is
trading inside a rising channel and continues to diverge with the
MACD, which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, it should be a signal for a pullback into the lower
bound of the channel where we will also find the red 21 moving average for confluence.
Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that from
a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to
reward setup around the lower bound of the channel where we can find the
confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level and the daily 21 moving average. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to confirm
the reversal and position for a bigger correction into the base of the channel
at 37128.
Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have
a minor support zone
around the 39450 level where we can find the confluence of the red 21 moving
average, the trendline and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This is where
the buyers are likely to step in with a defined risk below the support zone to
position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop into the lower
bound of the channel.
Upcoming Events
This week is going to be shortened by the US Holiday on
Friday. Tomorrow, we have the US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence reports.
On Wednesday we have Fed’s Waller speaking. On Thursday, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude with the US PCE report and
Fed Chair Powell.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
The pair is flat on the day now at 151.42 as it continues to hang near multi-year highs since last week. The 2022 and 2023 highs of 151.90-94 is the key resistance region in play at the moment for USD/JPY. Hold below and sellers can look to build off that ceiling to push price back lower. But break above and the sky is the limit for the pair as there is little technical resistance left until above 160.
As such, the only thing that can rein in any USD/JPY breakout from here is intervention by Tokyo. And the warnings are growing louder in the last few days. Earlier today, Japan’s top currency diplomat Kanda was rather vocal about the situation. He said that the yen’s weakness did not reflect fundamentals and warned against the recent „big slide“.
Kanda noted that the latest yen moves were „speculative“, adding that „I feel something strange about it“.
That’s a suggestion that Tokyo could look to get more involved if the one-sided move continues. And it comes despite the BOJ putting an end to negative rates and scrapping its yield curve control policy last week.
Looking at the situation, I reckon Tokyo won’t look to intervene so long as the technical ceiling above holds. A break higher will tilt the balance of risks for the yen, which could lead to a much sharper decline in the currency next. As such, the potential lines for USD/JPY intervention look to be closer towards 154 to 155 in my view.
For now, the bond market will remain a key spot to pay attention to. 10-year Treasury yields are at 4.225% and so long as they stay underpinned, chances are USD/JPY will follow as well.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Der zweitgrößte deutsche Autozulieferer greift ins Tafelsilber: Der hochverschuldete Konzern will die Eigenständigkeit der rentablen Sparte betonen und damit Interessenten anlocken.
Will Deutschland die Klimaziele einhalten, muss weniger mit Erdgas geheizt werden. Erste Kunden bekommen langfristige Kündigungen. Dahinter steckt auch ein Kostenproblem mit den Gasnetzen.