Gold prices have been reigned in after the massive push to another new all-time high. However, recent price action and a stronger dollar suggest more cooling to come
Archiv für den Monat: März 2024
British Pound Weekly Forecast – GBP, Gilt Yields Slide, FTSE 100 Rallies Further
The holiday-shortened week ahead has little in the way of important data or events to move Sterling assets. Sterling remains under short-term pressure.
What are the technical saying for the major currency pairs going into the new trading week
EURUSD:
USDJPY:
USDCHF:
USDCAD:
AUDUSD:
NZDUSD:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 22 Mar. USD moves higher while yield move lower.
- Nasdaq index closes at a new record high. S&P and Nasdaq close lower today
- US crude futures settle at $80.63
- ECB Centeno: Policy must, and will follow the inflation reality
- Reports of a terrorist attack in Moscow
- ECB’s Scicluna: A rate cut as soon as April could be warranted
- Scotiabank sees two reasons for further gold gains
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 509 vs 510 prior
- European indices close the day mostly higher
- Italy targeted GDP and 1% for 2024
- GOP squabbles: Rep Marjorie Taylor Green files motion to oust Speaker Mike Johnson
- Bitcoin downtrend triggers technical support pursuit
- US Secretary of State Blinken warned is Israeli PM Netanyahu and his war cabinet
- What did Nike, Lululemon and FedEx said about the global economy
- Kickstart your FX trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD
- Canada January retail sales -0.3% vs -0.4% expected
- The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins
- ForexLive European FX news wrap: The dollar rebound gathers pace
- Is there another BOJ rate hike on the cards for this year?
The USD is ending the day mostly higher with gains vs all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY and CHF (-0.16% and -0.06 respectively).
The greenback rose the most vs the AUD (+0.84%), NZD (+0.79%) and CAD (+0.59%). Solid gains on the day (near 0.50%) were made vs the EUR and the GBP as well.
For the trading week, the USD moved higher vs ALL the major currencies. Below is those gains:
- EUR: +0.72%
- JPY: +1.59%
- GBP: +1.03%
- CHF: +1.46%
- CAD: +0.50%
- AUD: +0.71%
- NZD: +1.52%
The gains in the greenback came despite declines in US yields this week indicative of either an oversold USD, an overbought condition in foreign currencies or simply a head-scratching move. It may also be a fundamental feeling that the US economy is stronger than the others. Fundamentally, the SNB did cut rates by surprise, but the BOJ raised rates for the first time in 17 years.
The RBA and BOE kept rates unchanged this week as did the Fed. The Fed did keep the dot plot at 3 cuts in 2024, BUT it did raise GDP estimates, and lowered the end of year unemployment rate.
- 2-year yield -13.7 basis points
- 5-year yield -14.0 basis points
- 10-year yield -10.6 basis points
- 30-year yield -5.0 basis points
For the trading day, yields moved lower despite the dollar rise.
- 2-year yield 4.595%, -3.6 basis points
- 5-year yield 4.191%, -6.2 basis points
- 10-year yield 4.204%, -6.7 basis points
- 30-year yield 4.381%, -6.1 basis points
US stocks today were mixed with the Dow and the S&P closing lower for the day, but still higher for the week. The Nasdaq closed at a new record high today
- Dow fell -0.77%, but was up 1.97% for the week
- S&P fell -0.14%, but was up 2.29% for the week (largest gains since December)
- Nasdaq rose 0.16%, and was up 2.85% (largest gain since 2nd week in January)
Next week, Friday is a holiday in Australian, New Zealand, and Europe for Good Friday. Core PCE will be released on Friday in the US. Fed’s Powell will also speak on Friday, giving him a chance to comment on the Fed’s favored inflation gauge.
Australia CPI will be released on Wednesday (Tuesday night in the US). Advance US durable goods will be released on Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET.
In other markets at week end:
- Crude oil is trading down $0.20 on the day. For the week, the price fell -$0.21 or -0.17%
- Gold rose $9.97 or 0.45%
- Silver fell -$0.50 or -2.03%
- Bitcoin fell -$4869 or -7.1% on the week.
Thank you for your support this week. Have a great weekend.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Nasdaq index closes at a new record high. S&P and Nasdaq close lower today
The major US indices are closing with mixed results today. The Dow industrial average and S&P index both closed lower. No record closes for those indices on the last trading day of the week. The NASDAQ index did close in positive territory and at a new record.
A summary of the closing levels shows:
- Dow industrial average -305.49 points for -0.77% at 39475.91
- S&P index-7.37.4 -0.14% at 5234.17
- NASDAQ index rose 26.97 points or 0.16% at 16428.81.
The small-cap Russell 2012-26.56 points or -1.27% at 2071.99.
For the trading week, the major indices (and the Russell 2000) all closed higher:
- Dow industrial average rose 1.602%
- S&P index rose 2.29%, its best week since December.
- NASDAQ index rose 2.85%, its best week since January 8 week
- Russell 2000 rose 1.60%.
The NASDAQ and S&P indices has only had four down trading weeks in 2024. For the trading year:
- Dow industrial average is up 4.74%
- S&P index is up 9.74%
- NASDAQ index is up 9.44%
- Russell 2000 is up 2.216%
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Breakout or Reversal? USDJPY tests 3-Year highs and triggers sellers
The USDJPY bumped against three-year highs this week on both Wednesday and Friday, and found willing sellers each time. The high on Wednesday reached 151.81. The high today reached 151.85. That compares to the 2022 high at 151.95, and the 2023 high at 151.91. So over the last three years, the swing highs are within 10 pips of each other. That’s a ceiling.
Having said that ceilings are meant to be broken. If it happens, it would take the USDJPY to the highest level since 1990 over 30+ years ago.
What would give the sellers more confidence?
The swing highs from February into early March peaked between 150.71 and 150.88. If the sellers are to take more control, getting and staying below that lower ceiling would be needed to increase the bearish bias. Absent that and the sellers are not winning. The buyers are still in firm control.
In the video above, I outline the technicals for the USDJPY in more detail as you prepare for the new trading week.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
US crude futures settle at $80.63
Crude oil futures are settling at $80.63. That is down $0.44 or -0.54%.
The low for the day reached $80.42. The high was up at $81.45. For the trading week, the price is down -0.51% on a decline of $0.41. At session highs this week, the price was up $2.08. At session lows, the price was down $0.74.
Looking at the weekly chart below, the high price this week at $83.12 briefly moved above its 100-week moving average at $83.27 before rotating back to the downside. Buyers had a shot. They missed.
The low for the week was reached yesterday at $80.30.
The price is back below its 50% midpoint of the 2023 trading range at $81.37. Getting back above that midpoint level is needed – along with a break of the 100-week moving average -to increase the bullish bias on the weekly chart.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Luftfahrt : „Der Stolz ist gewichen“: Pannenserie entsetzt Boeing-Belegschaft – Airlines verlieren Vertrauen
Das Chaos beim US-Flugzeugbauer verunsichert nicht nur Passagiere. Kontrolleure fanden Dutzende Mängel. Nun will Boeing einen alten Fehler zurückdrehen. Experten zweifeln, ob das reicht.Sponsoring-Deal: Nike feiert, Politik zürnt: Bruch des DFB mit Adidas schlägt hohe Wellen
Der überraschende 800-Millionen-Coup des Verbands mit dem US-Sportartikelkonzern sorgt in der Politik für empörte Reaktionen. Auch die Börsen reagieren – Adidas-Chef Gulden hält sich bedeckt.Lebensmittel: Lieferdienst Getir verhandelt um Übernahme von Konkurrent Flink
Ein Zusammenschluss würde einen klaren Marktführer schaffen, nur eine Marke soll übrig bleiben. Für Getir drängt die Zeit – Creditreform warnt bereits vor Geschäften.