10-year yields may be down slightly on the day but at 4.31%, they are over 25 bps higher from the lows seen on Monday last week. Traders are more wary amid the slew of US data in the week before, as the rates market also no longer prices in a full Fed rate cut for June. The odds of that have dropped to ~63% currently.

But what stands out more on the chart above is that we are seeing 10-year yields push past its 100-day moving average (purple line). There was a bit of a struggle in February for yields to move beyond that. But now, bond sellers are starting to take charge and they could do with some help from the Fed to confirm that break.

For now, the February high near 4.35% is likely to keep yields at bay until we get to the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Is June still on the table or has last week’s data changed that view somewhat? That is going to be the key question.

And amid the dot plots and Fed chair Powell’s speech, we might be in for a bit of a ride during the main event. The former is going to be heavily scrutinised to see if there are any changes to the 75 bps worth of rate cuts penciled in for this year. But if Powell keeps the door open for June, it is best to hold the Fed to that until the next set of key data releases at the very least.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin technical analysis: I’m eyeing a possible bounce up at $61k-$62k double support

In the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrency, observing and interpreting market trends is paramount for anyone engaged in trading or investing. In my latest analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USD), I’ve captured a pivotal movement indicating a potential shift in its market trajectory. This analysis leverages the most current data and technical indicators to shed light on what might be on the horizon for Bitcoin.

Recent performance and observations for BTCUSD on the 4 hourly chart 📉

Bitcoin has recently undergone a significant downturn, with a decrease of approximately 6.23% from its previous highs. This trend is noteworthy, especially considering my earlier forecast, which anticipated a range between $65k to $69k. Bitcoin almost reached the upper echelon of this prediction, peaking at $68,933 on Coinbase.

However, the scenario has since shifted, marking an 8.68% decline from the $69k threshold. This movement has resulted in Bitcoin breaching below an intermediate support level, an essential observation for those tracking the BTC/USD pair closely.

Anticipating the next critical phase 🧐

1. Technical analysis insights… see video above: The analysis suggests a critical juncture lies ahead within the $61k to $62k range. This prediction isn’t solely based on the recent candlestick patterns but also encompasses a thorough examination of 4-hourly candles and supplementary technical charts. This zone is identified as a pivotal support area that could significantly influence Bitcoin’s immediate market behavior.

2. Bear flag formation: A bear flag pattern has been identified, indicating a bearish outlook as Bitcoin exited downwards from this configuration. This development signals a potential approach towards the lows at the double support area, marking the inception of the current bearish channel.

The importance of the $61k-$62k support 🛡️

The support level between $61k and $62k is meticulously chosen based on a consolidation period that previously catalyzed a bullish momentum. This area is poised to be a vital watchpoint for traders, potentially acting as a robust double support influencing Bitcoin’s forthcoming movements.

Bitcoin price forecast

• Looking ahead for bitcoin: The $61k-$62k support level stands out as a significant potential turning point for Bitcoin. It emanates from a period of consolidation that had earlier served as a bullish springboard.

• Forecasting bitcoin price: Given the current patterns and the bear flag breakout, my analysis leans towards a revisit to this double support zone. It represents a critical area of interest that could dictate the short-term direction of Bitcoin.

Conclusion and trading guidance ⚠️

While my analysis offers a speculative glimpse into Bitcoin’s potential trajectory, it’s crucial for traders and investors to tread carefully. The volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market demands informed decision-making and robust risk management strategies.

For continuous updates, comprehensive analyses, and diverse perspectives on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, ensure to check back on my platform. Trading involves inherent risks, and it’s imperative to conduct thorough research and consider various viewpoints before engaging in investment activities.

Thank you for engaging with my analysis. Stay tuned for more insights and updates at www.ForexLive.com in the cryptocurrency market.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting and dropped the tightening bias in the statement.
• The US CPI and
  the US PPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month.
• The NFP report beat
  expectations on the headline number, but the unemployment rate and the average
  hourly earnings missed notably. Moreover, the US Jobless Claims beat
  expectations across the board with a big positive revision to Continuing
  Claims.
• The latest US ISM
  Manufacturing PMI missed expectations by a big margin
  remaining in contraction with the US ISM Services
  PMI
  following suit but holding on in expansion.
• The US Retail Sales missed
  expectations across the board although the data improved from the prior month.
• The market sees basically a 50/50 chance of a hike
  in June now.

CAD

• The BoC left interest rates unchanged at
  5.00% as expected stating that further easing in underlying inflation is needed.
• The latest Canadian CPI missed expectations across the
  board with the underlying inflation measures falling.
• On the labour market side, the latest report beat
  expectations but we saw a fall in wage growth which is something that the BoC
  is watching closely.
• The Canadian PMIs improved in
  January although they remain both in contractionary territory.
• The market expects the first rate
  cut in June.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD broke
through the key resistance level at
1.3540 and extended the rally into new highs. The buyers piled in on the
breakout and will now target the 1.3620 level. That’s where we can expect to
find the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for
a drop into the 1.3359 level.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
recently consolidated around the 1.3540 level before moving up as the buyers
piled in around the red 21 moving average. From a
risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward
setup around the trendline,
although this looks like a story for another time as the current bullish
momentum seems strong enough to reach the 1.3620 level first. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to
invalidate the bullish setup and increase the bearish bets into the 1.3359
level.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
latest leg higher is diverging with
the MACD, which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for a pullback into the minor
black trendline where we will also find the 4-hour 21 moving average for confluence. This
is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the
trendline to position for a rally into the 1.3620 level with a better risk to
reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the major trendline around the 1.35
handle.

Upcoming Events

Today we get the Canadian CPI figures. Tomorrow, we
have the FOMC rate decision on the agenda where the central bank is expected to
keep rates unchanged. On Thursday, we get the latest US PMIs and Jobless Claims
figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the Canadian Retail
Sales data.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

As for the hourly labour costs in total, that increased by 3.4% in the euro area as compared to the same quarter last year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -81.7
• Expectations 31.7 vs 20.5 expected
• Prior 19.9

German investor morale improved as economic expectations pick up ahead of the ECB’s anticipated first rate cut. Current conditions also got better but the overall economic situation remains at a very low level, notes ZEW.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.