At 14:00 we are expecting the march release of the ISM services PMI.

Markets will be paying additional attention to this one following the upside surprise in the manufacturing data on Monday.

With the last print, majority of measures stayed in expansion, while employment was the only sub-index that remained below 50.

I think markets will be paying particular attention to the prices paid component after the solid jump we had in manufacturing prices.

It goes without saying, but when analyzing ISM releases, don’t just focus on the headline number itself.

That usually get the first initial reaction, but markets soon digest the rest of the sub-indexes to get a better sense of how good or how bad the data was.

Make sure to include all of the components into your analysis.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US mortgage applications data:

• MBA mortgage applications: -0.6% (prior -0.7%)
• Mortgage market index: 195.6 (prior 196.8)
• MBA purchase index: 145.6 (prior 145.7)
• MBA refinancing index: 4536.5 (prior 460.9)
• MBA 30-year mortgage rate: 6.91% (prior 6.93%)

Notes on mortgage application data:

Indexes are adjusted for seasonal variations. The changes in percentages for these indexes and the
difference in the mortgage rate are compared with the previous week. The
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) survey, which has been done every week since
1990, includes more than 75% of all home loan applications in the U.S. People
who take part in this survey include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and
savings institutions

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Crude Oil recently broke
through the key $83 resistance following the strong US ISM Manufacturing PMI and some geopolitical risk in the
Middle East after Israel killed an Iranian general. For now, the fundamentals support
more upside for Crude Oil as we are seeing a reacceleration in economic
activity and the pickup in China’s performance seems to be gathering steam.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Crude Oil broke
through the key $83 resistance where we
had also the upper bound of the channel as an extra barrier. This breakout
should point to further gains ahead with the $89 level as the next target. If
the price were to pull back to retest the resistance now turned support, the
buyers should step in with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into
the $89 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the
lower bound of the channel around the $78 level.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we can find
some more confluence around
the $83 support as we can find the red 21 moving average and the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
If the price were to extend the pullback though, the buyers will have the trendline and the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level as the last line of defence. Below the
trendline, the sellers will regain control and we could see a selloff back into
the $78 level.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
latest leg higher diverged with
the MACD which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, it should signal a pullback into the minor trendline
where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence.
All these setups will be dip-buying opportunities for the buyers but depending
on the strength of the momentum and the economic data, the price might bounce
from either level. For this reason, the buyers might want to split their orders
or wait for a catalyst to pile in.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the US ADP and the US ISM Services
PMI. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while on Friday we
conclude the week with the US NFP report. Weak data is likely to weigh on Crude
Oil in the short term, while strong figures should give it a boost.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Below is a handy table that shows what type of interest rate changes are expected for the major central banks over their next few policy decisions.

Markets have certainly come a long way in pricing out some of the aggressive cuts we saw at the start of the year.

There was a lot of chatter on Monday about the first rate cut for the Fed being pushed back to September.

I don’t think that tells the whole story though.

Yes, technically the first cut is fully priced in for September, but there is still 24 basis points of cuts implied for July, which is just a whisker away from 25.

Other pricing that I’m keeping an eye on this week is for the SNB. Markets are currently pricing a 71% probability of a cut in June.

Which means Thursday’s inflation data will be important for how that view evolves.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite opened the day lower
but traded mostly higher into the close. The market got pressured by the strong
US ISM Manufacturing PMI report
on Monday which gave a boost to the US Dollar and Treasury yields. Inflation is
gradually becoming again the threat for further gains and the expectations for
rate cuts continue to dwindle with the market now being much less certain on a
rate cut in June. These fears might end up in some general profit-taking into
the US CPI report next week as another hot release could really spook the
market and trigger a change in the Fed’s stance.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite has
been diverging with
the MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. The price yesterday broke out of the rising wedge and
bounced on the key 16206 level where we have also the red 21 moving average for confluence. This
is a critical support zone as a continuation to the downside should trigger a
major correction with the 14500 level as the ultimate target.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the
price bounced on the 16206 level where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence. The buyers should
step in around this level with a defined risk below it to position for a rally
into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action with the big negative gap yesterday and the
bounce on the critical support zone.
We now have a resistance zone around the 16300 level where we can find the
confluence of the red 21 moving average and the two trendlines. This
is where the sellers are likely to step in with a defined risk above the top
trendline to position for a break of the support with a better risk to reward
setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above
the top trendline to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets
into new highs.

Upcoming
Events

Today the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow,
we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while on Friday we conclude the
week with the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.