Headlines:

• Sterling climbs on slightly stronger UK inflation data
• US futures pare losses as risk mood holds up for now
• Japan chief Cabinet secretary says closely watching FX moves, prepared for full measures
• UK March CPI +3.2% vs +3.1% y/y expected
• Eurozone March final CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 12 April +3.3% vs +0.1% prior
• NZ statistics office owns up to inflation data release error
• Japan monthly visitors hit a record high in March, crosses 3 million for first time ever

Markets:

• NZD leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
• US 10-year yields flat at 4.655%
• Gold up 0.3% to $2,388.80
• WTI crude down 0.7% to $84.77
• Bitcoin flat at $63,053

The dollar is taking a bit of a breather today as it slacks against the rest of the major currencies bloc. That said, it is still in a solid position as traders are still digesting the events so far in April.

The pound was a decent mover, helped by a slightly stronger UK inflation report. GBP/USD nudged up from 1.2420 to 1.2480 but failed to clear the 100-hour moving average. The key technical hurdle is where sellers are holding, with price now back down slightly to 1.2455 on the day.

Besides that, EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0640 with USD/CHF down 0.2% to 0.9107 currently. The moves are relatively light, not really suggesting much of a turnaround in the recent dollar momentum.

AUD/USD is seen up 0.4% to 0.6425 with NZD/USD up 0.5% to 0.5908 after the NZ inflation data earlier in the day. A better risk mood is also helping as US futures pared early losses to sit a little higher now. European indices are also looking to bounce back from yesterday’s fall, with French stocks leading the way. The CAC 40 is up a little over 1% with the DAX up 0.5%.

Other than that, there’s not much else to really scrutinise in markets so far today. It’s a pause in the dollar momentum and that’s the main takeaway.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Copper continues to be
supported by favourable fundamentals although the latest rally is starting to
look a bit exhausted. The supporting factors include the recent beat in the Chinese PMIs and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, with the latter jumping into
expansion for the first time since 2022. Moreover, we have the PBoC expected to
deliver more policy support this year while the other central banks continue to
foresee rate cuts at some point although they are willing to keep rates higher
for longer if needed. The current environment should be good for growth, so the
things to watch will be signs of marked deceleration in growth indicators or
increased risks of rate hikes.

Copper Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Copper has been
struggling to break the key 4.35 level. From a risk management perspective, the
buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 4.18 level where
we can also find the confluence of the 50%
Fibonacci retracement level,
the red 21 moving average and the trendline. The
sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around these levels to position
for a drop into the trendline and eventually target a break below it.

Copper Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been diverging with the
MACD, which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the target for the pullback would come right around
the base of the divergent formation near the 4.18 support,
although the price will need first to break below the black minor trendline to
confirm it.

Copper Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price rejected the 4.35 level and it’s now falling back to the minor trendline.
The buyers will have another opportunity to step in around the trendline to
position for a break above the 4.35 resistance. If the price were to break lower
though, the sellers will gain control and take the price into the 4.18 support.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.