• The nerves are starting to show again in USD/JPY
• What are the main events for today?
• Weekly update on interest rates expectations
• Germany June Ifo business climate index 88.6 vs 89.7 expected
• UK June CBI trends total orders -18 vs -25 expected
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 21 June CHF 451.8 bn vs CHF 453.5 bn prior
• China calls for EU to scrap tariffs on EVs by 4 July

Markets:

• EUR leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 0.8 bps to 4.265%
• Gold up 0.2% to $2,325.58
• WTI crude up 0.3% to $80.97
• Bitcoin down 4.9% to $61,023

It was a quiet session as markets are slowly easing into the final trading week of June.

There’s not much on the agenda today, so that explains the lack of major headlines in European morning trade. The German Ifo business climate missed on estimates but fits with the stutter from the PMI data last week.

That didn’t do much to dent the euro though, as the single currency nudged higher alongside regional stocks. EUR/USD is seeing a bump higher from 1.0700 to 1.0730, with European equities also up modestly across the board.

The first round of the French election will be coming later this weekend, so do be wary of that.

Looking to other major currencies, the yen was a bit nervy as well earlier amid some light profit-taking. USD/JPY fell from 159.60 in a quick drop to 158.75 before holding back around 159.50 currently.

The dollar itself is a touch softer but little changed against the rest of the major currencies bloc.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin is a notable mover as it is dragged down to $61,000 again with the low earlier touching $60,605.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Despite good data on the inflation
and growth
front, Bitcoin couldn’t find a sustained bid amid the generally positive risk
sentiment. There was no real catalyst for the drop other than a key technical
support getting breached. We got a quick drop into a key
support zone today which will likely attract more buyers looking to buy the dip at
better levels.

Bitcoin
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoin dropped all the way back to the key 60000 support
zone after breaking below the 67275 level. The sellers for now remain in
control but we can expect the buyers to start piling in around these levels with
a better risk to reward setup.

Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the key levels for the buyers which will be:

• the support zone around the
  60000 level and
• the major trendline
  around the 58000 region.

The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking below those levels to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better
risk to reward setup at the downward trendline around the 64000 level. The
buyers will want to see the price breaking above the most
recent lower high at 63000 to find some footing and eventually get the price above
the trendline to gain more conviction and increase the bullish bets into a new
all-time high.

Upcoming
Catalysts

This week is a bit light on the data front although we will still get to see some
important releases. We begin tomorrow with the US Consumer Confidence where the
market will be focused on the labour market details. On Thursday, we get the
latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the
US PCE.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

This is the sort of nervous price action that we also saw previously when getting close to intervention territory. The pair just took a quick dip from 159.60 to 158.75 before holding around 159.15-30 levels again.

In the run up to the last intervention, there were also jerky price movements such as this during the build towards 155.00 previously. That ultimately settled with a break higher though, before Tokyo stepped in at the 160.00 mark.

For now, the price jumps are not too volatile even with the rise since last week. So, I wouldn’t say Japanese officials are feeling extremely compelled to intervene for the time being.

This is all pretty much the same sort of nerves that is leading to profit-taking as we are near the key threshold.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -33

Manufacturing orders in the UK fell again in June but at a slower pace as compared to May at least. The balance for manufacturing output expectations also increased to 13 from 7 previously, marking the highest since October last year. CBI notes that the readings are „encouraging“ and that the recovery should „broaden out over the summer“.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.