• Mon, Jun 24, 3 AM ET. USD: FOMC member Waller speaking
• Mon, Jun 24, 1:45pm CAD: BOC Gov Macklem Speaks

Tuesday June 25

• Tue, Jun 25, 8:30am CAD: CPI m/m (Estimate: 0.3%, Previous: 0.5%), Median CPI y/y (Estimate: 2.6%, Previous: 2.6%),Trimmed CPI y/y (Estimate: 2.8%, Previous: 2.9%)
• Tue, Jun 25, 10:00am USD: CB Consumer Confidence (Estimate: 100.2, Previous: 102.0)
• Tue, Jun 25, 10:00AM USD: Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Estimate 2.0. Previous 0.0

Wednesday, June 26

• Weds, Jun 26, 9:30pm ET (Tuesday) AUD: CPI y/y (Estimate: 3.5%, Previous: 3.6%)

Thursday, June 27

• Thu, Jun 27, 5:30am GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
• Thu, Jun 27, 8:30am USD: Final GDP Q1 q/q (Estimate: 1.4%, Previous: 1.3%)
• Thu, Jun 27, USD: Unemployment Claims (Estimate: 240K, Previous: 238K)
• Thu, Jun 27, USD. Durable goods orders (Estimate -0.1%, previous 0.6%), Core durable goods orders (Estimate 0.1%. Previous 0.4%
• Thu, Jun 27, 10:00am USD: Pending Home Sales m/m (Estimate: -7.7%, Previous: -7.7%)

Friday June 28

• Fri, Jun 28, 8:30am CAD: GDP m/m (Estimate: 0.3%, Previous: 0.0%)
• Fri, Jun 28, USD: Core PCE Price Index m/m (Estimate: 0.1%, Previous: 0.2%)
• Fri, Jun 28, 10:00am USD: Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (Estimate: 65.9, Previous: 65.6)

In addition to the above the US treasury will auction off:

• June 25, 2-year notes
• Jun 26: 5 -year notes
• Jun 27: 7-year notes

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s outside reversal lower in gold prices rekindles some worries on the chart.

Gold has looked to be forming a head-and-shoulders top over the past two months in a move that would target $2150. However yesterday the bulls made a move and tried to take out the late-May highs. That failed through and today the sellers returned with a vengeance, knocking it lower by $40 to $2318.

While the pattern isn’t exactly textbook, it is a head-and-shoulders top and it comes after some data showing that the US service sector isn’t slowing. In fact, the S&P Global services PMI rose to a 26-month high.

That could keep the Fed from cutting rates at all this year and lead to aggressive profit taking in gold.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

MUFG highlights the yen’s recent weakening trend and anticipates the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising rates at next month’s meeting. Concurrently, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) faces increased pressure to intervene in the currency markets to prevent the yen from further depreciation beyond critical levels.

Key Points:

1. Yen Weakness and Intervention Reversal:
   • USD/JPY has risen back above 159.00, approaching the year-to-date high of 160.17 from April.
   • The impact of Japan’s intervention in late April/early May to support the yen has nearly fully reversed.

2. Yield Spread Dynamics:

   • Despite the narrowing of the 2-year yield spread between US and Japanese government bonds from a peak of around 4.75% in April to a 30bps decrease, the yen continues to weaken.
   • The yield spreads remain at their widest levels since the late 1990s/early 2000s, insufficient to reverse the yen’s weakening trend.

3. MoF Intervention Pressure:

   • The yen’s re-weakening increases pressure on the MoF to intervene again if USD/JPY breaks above 160.00 and the pace of the yen sell-off accelerates.
   • Previous interventions have had limited lasting impact, suggesting the need for more substantial or coordinated efforts.

4. BoJ Policy Normalization:

   • The weakening yen also puts pressure on the BoJ to expedite its policy normalization process.
   • MUFG expects the BoJ to raise rates by 15bps at next month’s policy meeting.
   • Additionally, the BoJ is anticipated to announce detailed plans to slow the pace of Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases over the next couple of years.

Conclusion:

MUFG forecasts that the BoJ will raise rates by 15bps at the upcoming policy meeting and announce plans to reduce JGB purchases. Concurrently, the MoF may face increased pressure to intervene in the currency markets to prevent the yen from depreciating beyond critical levels, particularly if USD/JPY breaches 160.00. The combination of BoJ policy adjustments and potential MoF interventions aims to stabilize the yen and address the ongoing currency depreciation.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.