• RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected
• RBA’s Bullock: We did not consider the case for a rate cut today
• RBA’s Bullock: We need a lot to go our way to bring inflation back to range
• ECB’s de Guindos: Best time to make rate decisions is together with updated projections
• Gold stays in consolidative mode but the technical risks are growing
• Germany June ZEW survey current conditions -73.8 vs -65.0 expected
• Eurozone May final CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y prelim
• Citi raises S&P 500 year-end target to 5,600 from 5,100 previously

Markets:

• CHF leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities slightly higher; S&P 500 futures flat
• US 10-year yields up 1.2 bps to 4.290%
• Gold down 0.4% to $2,310.01
• WTI crude flat at $80.35
• Bitcoin down 1.8% to $65,202

The dollar is holding steadier on the day, keeping a little higher ahead of the next big event on the calendar later today.

The US retail sales data for May is due and that will be one to watch for markets, in following up from the Fed decision last week.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD are both down 0.2% to 1.0710 and 1.2675 respectively, while USD/JPY pushed higher from 157.60 in Asia to hold just above 158.00 currently.

The franc continues to hold its own ahead of the SNB later this week, with USD/CHF down 0.2% to 0.8875. The pair is now testing waters below its 200-day moving average of 0.8895 on the day.

The aussie is lightly changed at 0.6610 against the dollar with the RBA offering a nothing burger on the day. RBA governor Bullock did say that they did discuss rate hikes today but quickly toned that down by stating the preference to want to cut rates instead as their next move.

In other markets, bond yields are a touch higher again today while equities sentiment is more muted overall. European indices may be higher but it owes to Wall Street gains yesterday. There was a bit of a struggle early on with French stocks briefly paring opening gains. That’s an indication that the political woes are still in play in the bigger picture.

As for commodities, precious metals are lower again and gold might be seeing a more troubling sign when it comes to the charts. So, keep an eye out for that.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

We had some good news last week when both the CPI
and the PPI
came in on the soft side. This should help the stock market in the bigger picture
since it will give the Fed more confidence to begin decreasing rates in the
latter part of the year.

The FOMC decision last week was slightly more
hawkish than expected, but Fed
Chair Powell made it clear that their estimates are subject to change as
they are still very data dependent, so the market looked past the Fed’s
projections.

The risk sentiment remains a bit murky, but it appears that the negative
mood of the prior week is dissipating. We have US Retail Sales data today, and
good data should bolster the market and improve the risk sentiment.

Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq keeps making all-time highs as the path of least resistance
remains to the upside. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have
a better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. At the moment though, it’s
unlikely that we will see such a big pullback unless we get some really ugly US
data.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a good support zone around the 19800 level where we can find
the confluence of a minor trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with
a defined risk below it to position for another rally with a better risk to
reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 19000 level next.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have the lower bound of the average daily range for today right around the recent
resistance now turned support. If we get a dip into it on weak US Retail Sales
data, the buyers might step in around there to fade the reaction and position
for new highs.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the US Retail Sales and US Industrial Production. On Thursday,
we get the US Housing Starts, Building Permits data and the latest US Jobless
Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the and US PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.