Archiv für den Monat: Juli 2024
Parlamentswahl: Neue britische Regierung will engere Handelsbeziehung mit EU
Nasa-Experiment: Ein Jahr auf dem Mars – Nasa-Simulation beendet
AfD: Taktische Fehler, neue Konkurrenten – schwindet der Einfluss von Björn Höcke in der AfD?
Rent a car for a road trip, or drive your own? 5 things to consider
The inflation scare is over: The pandemic was a perfect storm
Generals always fight the last war and central bankers are going to continue to fight the ghost of inflation, even as it becomes increasingly clear that the inflationary threat is over and the bigger risk is recession.
On Thursday, ECB chief economist Phillip Lane noted that firms are telling them that wage pressures are coming down. Their wage tracker also shows much slower wage growth in 2025 and 2026. There won’t be any second-round effects.
With the benefit of hindsight, it will soon be clear that the past-pandemic inflation was a one-off perfect storm caused by:
- Ultra-low rates, including irresponsible forward guidance
- Out of control fiscal spending
- Supply shock
We combined all three and all it got was 9% inflation. All it took to quell it were 5% rates.
Does that sound like a new inflationary normal, or a blip in a long disinflationary cycle?
To illustrate how insane the monetary policy was. This is what the Reserve Bank of Australia did:
- Cut the Cash Rate to 0.10%,
- Bought $100b via QE over six months
- Pledged to buy $5 billion of government bonds a week with a commitment to continue until Feb 2022
- Targeted 3-year note yields at 0.10%
- Guided to not hiking rates until ‚at least‘ 2024
They certainly weren’t alone as central banks the world over were caught in an easing mania — they went ‚full nuclear‘. Ten-year US note yields were below 2% for two years and below 1% for much of that. It was free money.
It was the same with governments. The US Paycheck Protection Program scam gave away $800 billion with minimal oversight. Much of that went straight into the pockets of small business owners. There were $850 billion in stimulus checks, followed by another $900 dose, enhanced unemployment benefits cost $680 billion. Compare that to the financial crisis, which authorized $700 billion in loans that actually had to paid back.
Finally, a great source of inflation via supply chains. All this money and low-interest lending was going to consumers who did things like decide to renovate, build fence and decks. Lumber prices went parabolic.
Supply chains were wrecked in autos, computer chips, consumer goods, meat, steel and dozens of other places.
Yet still: Just 9% inflation.
I’m not saying it wasn’t painful and I think the lags in measuring things like housing mean that inflation was more in the 12-15% range but it was a once-in-a-lifetime event.
Yet somehow central bankers are treating it like it was the start of a new normal. Compounding that insanity is that we’ve seen the dawn of generative AI in the past 20 months. That’s undoubtedly deflationary, something I talked about yesterday with BNNBloomberg (near the end):
I also wrote about it here.
When the economic history of the pandemic is definitively written, it will emphasize that it was a one-off event in a long, disinflatioary cycle that was worsened by central banks keeping rates too high for too long.
I believe this is a rare moment to lock in investments with high rates for a long duration in the same way that the pandemic was a once-in-a-lifetime to lock in low borrowing rates.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 5 Jul: NFP for June sent the USD lower/yields tumbling
- NASDAQ closed at new record levels each day of this trading week
- US Sen Warren seeks to assemble a group of Democratic senators to ask Biden to exit race
- Key events and releases for traders in the upcoming trading week
- Crude oil futures settle at $83.16
- Geopolitics: Head of Israel’s Mossad returned from Doha after initial cease-fire meetings
- Baker Hughes oil rig count 479 unchanged on the current week 101
- New York Fed Nowcast growth estimate for Q2 falls to 1.8% down from 1.93% last week
- European equity close: French stocks cautious ahead of Sunday’s vote
- SNB’s Jordan „relatively comfortable“ with inflation
- Fed mon pol report: Labor supply-demand balance resembles pre-pandemic period
- Rachel Reeves becomes Britain’s first female Chancellor
- Timiraos: The Fed may start the debate about a Sept cut at the upcoming meeting
- Putin: We see Orban’s visit as an attempt to restore the dialogue
- Canada June PMI 62.5 vs 52.0 expected
- The gold market may have found a second leg
- Kickstart the FX trading day for July 5 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
- US dollar chops after non-farm payrolls
- Canada June employment change by -1.4K versus 22.5K estimate
- US May non-farm payrolls +206K vs +190K expected
- The JPY is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins
- What are the Fed odds saying ahead of the jobs report later?
- ForexLive European FX news wrap: On to the NFP next
The US jobs report showed Non-Farm Payroll up a greater than expected 206K vs 190K estimate. However, the details of the report were less than stellar.
- Revisions to prior 2 months was -111K. That more than offset the above expected growth this month.
- The unemployment rate moved to 4.1%. The highest rate since November 2021
- Average hourly earnings YoY came in at 3.9% which is the lowest level June 2021
- The gain in Non-farm payroll was helped by a large 70 K rise in government jobs private education and health also added 82K. The two sectors accounted for 74% of the total gain for the month
- Temporary help fell -48K which is indicative of a slowing job market
- Professional and business services fell -17 K
- Leisure and hospitality – a strong job grower in the post pandemic recovery and indicative of discretionary spending – rose only 7K .
Below is a summary of the jobs data:
The initial reaction in the forex market was the dollar moving higher, but those gains were quickly reversed as yields also reversed to the downside.
The USD is ending the day as the 2nd weakest of the major currencies behind the CAD. The largest declines were versus the GBP (-0.45%), the CHF (-0.49%) and the NZD (-0.48%).
In the US debt market, yields moved lower with the shorter end moving the most as traders increased the expectations for rate cuts in September and through the end of the year.
Looking at the yield curve, a snapshot shows:
- 2-year yield 4.605%, -8.7 basis points
- 5-year yield 4.226%, -8.3 basis points
- 10-year yield 4.278%, -6.9 basis points
- 30-year yield 4.475%, -4.4 basis points
For the trading week yields were solidly lower as well with :
- 2-year yield down -14.8 basis points
- 5-year yield down -14.9 basis points
- 10-year yield down -11.8 basis points
- The 30-year yield down -8.0 basis points
The declining yields also helped to push stocks higher and complete a week that saw the NASDAQ index close at record levels for each day the holiday shortened week.
- Dow Industrial Average average rose 0.17%.
- S&P index rose 0.55%.
- NASDAQ index rose 3.5%, its best week since April 22
Despite the sharp rise in broader stock indices, bitcoin had a horrible week on by nearly $6000 to -$56,718 currently.
Crude oil prices did rise by $1.62 or 1.99% despite being lower today by $0.72 for -0.86%.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
NASDAQ closed at new record levels each day of this trading week
A snapshot of the closing levels shows:
- Dow Industrial Average average rose 67.87 points or 0.17% at 39375.86
- S&P index rose 30.19 points or 0.55% at 5567.20.
- NASDAQ index rose 164.46 points or 0.90% at 18352.76
The small-cap Russell 2000 fell -9.89 points or -0.49% at 2026.72
For the trading week:
- Dow Industrial Average average +0.66%
- S&P index +1.95%
- NASDAQ index rose 3.5%
- Russell 2000-1.02%
For the trading year:
- Dow Industrial Average average of 4.47%
- S&P index +16.72%
- NASDAQ index plus a 22.26%
- Russell 2000 is unchanged this year
Some of the record highs today included Alphabet, Meta Platforms,, Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, and Apple.
Tesla closed higher for its seventh consecutive day. For the trading week, shares rose by 27.12%. For the trading year, Netflix has erased all his losses and trade up 1.22% on the year. At session lows this year the price was down -109.68 points or -43%.
In comparison to the other 6 of the Magnificent 7
- Nvidia rose 1.85%, and is up 154.09% this year
- Meta Platforms rose 7.08%, and is up 52.53% this year
- Amazon rose 3.49%, and is up 31.63% this year
- Alphabet rose 4.64%, and is up 36.44% this year
- Apple rose 7.46%, and is up 17.56% this year
- Microsoft rose 4.61%, and is up 24.34% this year
Shares of Netflix are closing just below its record high close of $691.69 from November 17, 2021. The closing level today was $690.65, up 2.34% on the week.
Oracle shares closed higher by 2.57%, and is up 37.37% for the year
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
US Sen Warren seeks to assemble a group of Democratic senators to ask Biden to exit race
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Key events and releases for traders in the upcoming trading week
Sun, Jul 7
- All Day: EUR – French Parliamentary Elections
Mon, Jul 8
- No major events listed
Tue, Jul 9
- 10:00 am: USD – Fed Chair Powell Testifies on Capital Hill
- 1:01 PM ET: U.S. Treasury sells 3-year notes
- 9:30 pm ET: CNY – CPI y/y. Estimate 0.4% versus 0.3% last month
- 9:30 pm ET: CNY – PPI y/y. Estimate -0.8% versus -1.4% last month
- 10:00 pm ET: NZD – Official Cash Rate. No Change expected
- 10:00 pm ET: NZD – RBNZ Rate Statement
Wed, Jul 10
- 10:00 am ET: USD – Fed Chair Powell Testifies on Capital Hill
- 1:01 pm ET: USD – 10-y Bond Auction
Thu, Jul 11
- 2:00 am ET: GBP – GDP m/m. 0.2% versus 0.0% last month
- 8:30 am ET: USD – Core CPI m/m. 0.2% versus 0.2% last month
- 8:30 am ET: USD – CPI m/m. 0.1% versus 0.0% last month
- 8:30 am ET USD – CPI y/y. 3.1% versus 3.3% last month
- 8:30 am ET: USD – Unemployment Claims. Estimate 236K
- 1:01 pm ET: USD – 30-y Bond Auction
Fri, Jul 12
- 8:30 am ET: USD – Core PPI m/m. Estimate 0.1% versus 0.0% last month
- 8:30 am ET: USD – PPI m/m. Estimate 0.1% versus -0.2% last month
- 10:00 am ET: USD – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. 67.0 versus 68.2 last month
- 10:00 am ET: USD – Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations. Last month 3.0%
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.