Notably, long dated Treasury yields jumped in the immediate aftermath of the debate on June 28 in a signal about a Republican sweep coupled with further tax cut and a deficit running around 6.5% of GDP for the next five years.

Then the market had a rethink. Whether that was due to cross-currents, the still-long timeline before the election or the likelihood of Biden dropping out is debatable. BMO thinks the market is also factoring in the second-order effects of a Republican sweep:

Recall in the wake of the Biden/Trump debate, the
Treasury market bear steepened on supply/reflation concerns. Once the initial
dust settled, the kneejerk response to improved Trump odds appears to be a bear
flattener – the logic being that any rebound of inflationary pressures will
slow the FOMC’s normalization (i.e. cutting) process during the latter part of
2025 and beyond. We suspect the first order response to a Biden withdrawal
would be incrementally bond friendly and most likely still a steepener. Simply
a reversal impulse.

To translate this into FX, the takeaway would be:

• Trump positive = dollar bullish
• Biden/Democrat positive = dollar bearish

I’m on board with this thinking but I wouldn’t get carried away with the idea that it will dominate markets. Also, the most-underappreciated race in 2024 is the House. Betting sites put Democrats only narrowly behind for House control despite all the turmoil and that could quickly turn and lead to a split Congress and the inevitable gridlock that comes with it.

Another thing to keep in mind is that bond seasons are constructive for the next few weeks, meaning the bias in yields is to the downside. None of this is happening in a vacuum and the outlook for the economy and inflation is in flux.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The FTSE China A50 Index Futures (ticker: XIN9) are a vital tool for international investors aiming to tap into China’s vibrant A-share market. Traded on the Singapore Exchange (SGX), these futures mirror the performance of the 50 largest A-share companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, providing a comprehensive snapshot of China’s leading economic players. Their popularity is driven by high liquidity and accessibility, making them a favored choice for both hedging and speculative strategies.

The pros and cons of using technical analysis on FTSE China A50 Index Futures

Advantages

• Liquidity and volume: The FTSE China A50 Index Futures are highly liquid, ensuring smoother trade executions and minimizing slippage risk. This liquidity enhances the reliability of technical analysis by providing consistent price patterns and indicators.
• Market representation: The index includes top-performing companies, capturing broad economic trends and investor sentiment in China. This makes technical analysis more meaningful, as the index reflects significant market forces.
• Global accessibility: Available on SGX, these futures are accessible to international investors, attracting a diverse group of market participants. This global participation increases the validity of observed technical patterns.

Disadvantages

• Regulatory influences: The Chinese stock market is subject to regulatory changes and interventions that can cause sudden, unpredictable movements. These interventions can distort technical signals, complicating long-term analysis.
• Market volatility: High volatility, driven by economic data releases, policy announcements, and geopolitical factors, can create false signals and increase the risk in technical analysis despite the trading opportunities it presents.
• Economic and political sensitivity: The index’s sensitivity to economic policies and political developments in China can overshadow technical factors, making long-term predictions more complex.

Key technical indicators

For traders using technical analysis, identifying „tells“ such as rapid buying or reactionary support and resistance levels is crucial. These tells often appear through specific patterns and indicators:

• Support and resistance levels: Historical price levels where the index consistently finds support or faces resistance can indicate potential reversal points, useful for setting entry and exit points.
• Volume spikes: Significant changes in trading volume often precede major price movements. A sudden volume increase coupled with price action can indicate strong buying or selling interest, signaling potential breakouts or breakdowns.
• Candlestick patterns: Patterns such as Doji, Hammer, and Engulfing provide insights into market sentiment and potential reversals. Observing these patterns over longer time frames can help identify sustained trends and key turning points.
• Moving averages: Long-term moving averages (e.g., 50-day, 200-day) smooth out price action and reveal the underlying trend. Crossovers of these averages can signal the beginning or end of a trend, offering valuable clues for long-term analysis.

Simple tactic for confirmation

A useful tactic is to look for monthly price closes above significant historical levels, such as previous monthly lows. Markets often exhibit „fake-outs“ where prices temporarily breach key levels only to reverse. A monthly close above these levels provides greater confirmation that the price has settled into new territory and is more widely accepted by market participants.

How to invest in the FTSE China A50 Index Futures: A detailed plan (this is my opinion and trade at your own risk)

Based on the attached chart, here is a detailed plan for investing in the FTSE China A50 Index Futures:

• Entry point: Enter a long position if the monthly price closes above the July 2024 low at 11,894. This acts as a bullish confirmation signal.
• Stop loss: Set a stop loss at 11,840, just below the July 2024 low to minimize risk in case of a false breakout.
• Take profit: Set the take profit level at 16,647, just below the high of December 2021, targeting a substantial move with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
• Risk-reward ratio: This trade plan offers a 5:1 reward-to-risk ratio, which is highly favorable for long-term trading strategies.
• Monitor monthly closes: Continuously monitor the monthly closes to ensure the price stays above key support levels. Adjust the stop loss and take profit levels as necessary based on significant market developments and technical signals.

In summary, while the FTSE China A50 Index Futures present robust opportunities for technical analysis, traders must navigate challenges such as regulatory influences, market volatility, and economic sensitivity. By thoroughly analyzing support and resistance levels, volume patterns, candlestick formations, and moving averages, traders can enhance their ability to predict market movements and make informed trading decisions.

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购买FTSE中国A50指数期货的长期交易计划

FTSE中国A50指数期货（代码：XIN9）为国际投资者提供了进入中国A股市场的机会。以下是详细的交易计划和技术分析：

技术分析的优缺点

优点

• 流动性和交易量：高流动性确保交易执行顺畅，减少滑点风险。
• 市场代表性：该指数包含顶级公司，反映中国经济趋势和投资者情绪。
• 全球可及性：在新加坡交易所（SGX）交易，吸引全球投资者。

缺点

• 监管影响：中国市场监管变化可能导致价格波动，影响技术信号的可靠性。
• 市场波动性：高波动性可能产生虚假信号，增加风险。
• 经济和政治敏感性：政策和经济发展对指数的影响较大，复杂化长期预测。

关键技术指标

• 支撑和阻力位：历史价格水平可作为潜在反转点。
• 交易量激增：交易量的显著变化通常预示价格大幅波动。
• 蜡烛图形态：观察长期时间框架内的形态如十字星、锤子和吞没形态。
• 移动平均线：长期移动平均线交叉点提供趋势信号。

确认策略

• 月线收盘：关注价格是否在重要历史水平上方收盘，以确认新价位的稳定性。

详细交易计划

• 进场点：若月线收盘价高于2024年7月低点11,894点，则买入。
• 止损点：设定在11,840点，低于2024年7月低点。
• 获利点：设定在16,647点，低于2021年12月高点。
• 风险回报比：5:1，非常有利于长期交易策略。
• 监控月线收盘：确保价格保持在关键支撑位上方，必要时调整止损和获利点。

在进行交易时，请注意监管、市场波动和经济政策的影响，确保做出明智的交易决策。

您可以在此查看详细的文章：Forexlive.com

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

The announcement is usually on the 20th, but since that’s Saturday it’ll be on Monday instead.

Earlier this week we had the monthly Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) setting:

• The PBoC has kept the 1-year MLF interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected

When the People’s Bank of China leaves the MLF rate unchanged its often, but not always, a signal that LPRs will remain unchanged.

Current LPR rates are:

• 3.45% for the one year
• 3.95% for the five year

Won’t be cutting this month (is the widely held expectation).

—

The PBOC’s Loan Prime Rate (LPR):

• Its an interest rate benchmark used in China, set by the People’s Bank of China each month.
• The LPR serves as a reference rate for banks when they determine the interest rates for (primarily new) loans issued to their customers.
• Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.
• Its calculated based on the interest rates that a panel of 18 selected commercial banks in China submit daily to the PBOC.
  • The panel consists of both domestic and foreign banks, with different weights assigned to each bank’s contributions based on their size and importance in the Chinese financial system.
  • The LPR is based on the average rates submitted by these panel banks, with the highest and lowest rates excluded to reduce volatility and manipulation. The remaining rates are then ranked, and the median rate becomes the LPR.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.