• Prior -2.6%
• Market index 206.1 vs 206.5 prior
• Purchase index 144.3 vs 142.9 prior
• Refinance index 532.3 vs 544.1 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.00% vs 7.03% prior

Mortgage applications fell marginally in the past week as a drag in refinancing activity outweighed a slight rise in purchase activity. Overall, this continues to point to a more subdued sentiment in the housing market – which has been the case over the past year or so.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USD weakened across the
board last Friday following the soft US NFP
report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the
unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy
that is slowing but still growing.

We will
see if the market will be able to keep the positive sentiment on soft landing
hopes or start to worry about a recession. Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell testified to Congress but he didn’t offer anything in terms of forward
guidance as they want to see more data before signalling any action.

The GBP, on the other hand,
gained last week against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continued to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed but
didn’t send recessionary signals. This week, we are seeing a consolidation as
the market awaits the US CPI and Jobless Claims figures tomorrow.

On the monetary policy
front, the BoE
in June left the door open for a rate cut in August with the market probability
standing at 60%. The next UK CPI report on July 17th will likely
decide whether the central bank will be able to deliver the first cut in August
or wait some more time.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD is struggling around the 1.28 resistance as the market awaits the release of
the US CPI and Jobless Claims figures tomorrow. This is where the sellers
continue to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a
drop back into the 1.2635 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.29 handle
next.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk
to reward setup around the 1.2750 level where we can find the confluence
of the previous swing level and the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.2635 support.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we are
seeing some pickup in bullish momentum today although the buyers will want to
see the price breaking above the most recent lower high at 1.2825 before piling
in with more conviction. On the other hand, a break below the minor counter-trendline
might lead to an increase in the bearish momentum and provide the correction
into the 1.2750 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow will be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and the
US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI and
the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

For some context, the BOJ held discussions with bond market participants over the last two days before announcing their official decision on tapering later this month. It is being reported that many private banks called for the Japanese central bank to halve its monthly purchases by around 2026.

While there was apparently a varying amount of views put forth, there was many who argued for the BOJ to trim their monthly bond buying to around ¥3 trillion two years from now.

Meanwhile, an added source also reveals that the BOJ is likely imagining a scenario where it tapers its bond buying to around ¥2 trillion by March 2026.

All of this fits with the idea that the tapering process is going to be a more gradual one, even if the BOJ decides with a larger amount to begin with at its upcoming meeting on 31 July.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USD weakened across the
board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour
market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage
growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing.

We will
see if the market will be able to keep the positive sentiment on soft landing
hopes or start to worry about a recession.Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell testified to Congress but he didn’t offer anything in terms of forward guidance as they want to see more data before signalling any action.

The AUD, on the other hand,
gained last week against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continued to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed but
didn’t send recessionary signals. This week, we are seeing a consolidation as the market awaits the US CPI and Jobless Claims figures tomorrow.

On the monetary policy front, the Aussie got a boost from another
hot monthly CPI report last month which raised the chances of
a rate hike, although RBA’s Hauser poured some cold water on the
expectations as he said that he would rather hold rates steady for longer.

AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD broke out of the two-month long range last week and consolidated
just above it ever since. The resistance
around the 0.6713 level has
now become support.

That’s where we can expect
the buyers to keep piling in with a defined risk below it to position for a
rally into the 0.6870 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price falling back below the 0.6713 level to regain some control and
position for a drop into the 0.66 handle.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the consolidation just above the 0.6713 level as the market awaits
the key economic data tomorrow with the release of the US CPI and Jobless Claims
figures. For now, we will likely keep ranging here until we get a breakout on
either side.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a good resistance zone around the 0.6750 level. The buyers
will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new
highs, while the sellers will likely keep on leaning on the resistance to
position for a break below the 0.6713 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow will be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and the
US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI and
the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

It’s just one of those days where tomorrow can’t come soon enough. Besides the kiwi today, other major currencies are lacking any real appetite to move on the day. In exemplifying that sentiment, EUR/USD is still hugging a 13 pips range only so far today. Talk about a snoozefest.

We’re pretty much caught in the countdown to the US inflation report tomorrow. And that is leaving traders with a lack of conviction to go hunting today.

The expectation is that we will see headline annual inflation ease back to 3.1% for June. However, core annual inflation is expected to remain sticky at 3.4% – unchanged from May. Once again, there will be plenty of watchful eyes on the details. These were some of the key takeaways from last month’s report.

The release tomorrow will come alongside the weekly jobless claims data, so there might be a bit of an added twist. Just be wary of that as such.

For today, the 10-year Treasury notes auction will be the only real item of significance on the agenda. So, it is still mostly a waiting game until we get to the main event tomorrow.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.