Nvidia’s release on Wednesday won’t make it the most important day of the year even as so many think it will be.
Archiv für den Monat: August 2024
2 big tests ahead will determine if last week’s stock market excitement was warranted
Wall Street takes back-to-back weekly gains and an overbought market into an important week.
Forexlive European FX news wrap 26 Aug – Libya halts oil production and exports
- Libya’s Al Waha Company says it will start partial reduction in production
- WTI extends gains with news that Libya will be stopping all production and exports
- Earnings in focus this week again with Nvidia
- Germany received a tip-off about potential Russian sabotage act at a NATO site
- FX not playing ball with commodities and equity performance today
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow sitting at 2%
- Germany Aug Ifo business climate index 86.6 vs 86.0 expected
- Heads up that this week is month-end
- Weekly update on interest rates expectations
- Riksbank meeting minutes
- Markets hold to a view of >100 bp of cuts for the Fed by year-end
- What are the main events for today?
- Swiss Non-Farm Payrolls 5.499 vs 5.484M prior
- Conditions for sustained USD weakness not fully in place
- Japan leading indicator -2.1 vs -2.6 prior
- Equity and bond expectations divergence likely to be bullish for the USD
- India GDP seen at 6.9% in April to June vs 7.8% in previous quarter
- Most commodities are trading in the red apart from oil
Markets:
- JPY leads, NZD lags on the day
- European equities flat; S&P
500 futures up 0.15% - US 10-year yields up 2 bps
to 3.81% - Gold
up 0.36% to $2,521 - WTI
crude up 2.69% to $76.84 - Bitcoin down 0.48% to $63,953
It was a classic
quiet Monday session with little in terms of market moving data releases. The
only highlight was the German IFO reading which came out basically in line with
estimates.
The only major
news was the Libyan eastern-based government declaring the closing down of all oil
fields and halting production and exports as a force majeure announced in
response to the attempts to take over the central bank by the Tripoli-based
government.
In the
markets, there’s been very little movement with just crude oil getting the
attention following the Libyan news as the price shot 1.5% higher and counting.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
WTI up over 2% as Libya announces force majeure
Oil continues to extent on gains after Libya announced a force majeure on all facilities, terminals and oil fields.
Next major resistance on the chart is the 200DMA coming up around $77.76. It also has confluence with the 2 standard deviation implied volatility high for the day.
This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.
Libya’s Al Waha Company says it will start partial reduction in production
Libya’s Al Waha Company says it will start partial reduction in production, „continued pressure“ will lead to complete halt – statement.
Oil continues to grind higher on the news with WTI testing close to $76.50.
This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.
WTI extends gains with news that Libya will be stopping all production and exports
Libyan eastern-based government says all oil fields closing down, halting production and exports – statement.
- Force majeure announced in response to the attempts to takeover the central bank by the Tripoli-based governments.
This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.
Earnings in focus this week again with Nvidia
The poster child of the AI theme is reporting earnings this week, with options markets implying a close to 10% move for Ndivia on their earnings release this week.
Given the over 6% weighting in the S&P and close to 12% weighting in the Nasdaq it can really move the needle should earnings offer meaningful positive or negative surprises.
At this stage it feels like a lot of good news have been priced in, and arguably means that the size of beat and guidance needs to be solid to hold up to what is priced.
Another name to keep on the radar is Salesforce with a chunky weighting of close to 5% in the Dow.
This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.