US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 16 August -10.1% vs +16.8% prior 0 (0)

  • Prior +16.8%
  • Market index 225.8 vs 251.3 prior
  • Purchase index 130.6 vs 137.7 prior
  • Refinance index 754.4 vs 889.3 prior
  • 30-year mortgage rate 6.50% vs 6.54% prior

After the surge in mortgage applications in the week before that, we are seeing things moderate back last week. The surge in activity in the week before owes much to the sharp drop in rates, with it weighing on the average rate of the most popular US home loan once again.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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NZDUSD Technical Analysis – The Kiwi benefits from the USD weakness 0 (0)

Fundamental
Overview

The USD continues to remain
under pressure amid positive risk sentiment and the imminent rate cuts from the
Fed which should help global growth. These are generally bearish drivers for
the greenback.

In fact, the recent strong
appreciation of the NZD has been mostly driven by the US Dollar side of the
equation. After the recent more dovish than expected RBNZ decision, the market is pricing a 95% probability of a rate cut in October and then at least another 25 bps cut before year-end.

The focus now will be on
tomorrow’s Flash US PMIs and then Fed Chair Powell speech at the Jackson Hole
Symposium on Friday.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD broke above the key resistance zone around the 0.6050 for good
this time and extended the gains into the 0.6150 level. This is where we can
expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position
for a drop back into the 0.6050 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.6217
resistance.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a very strong support zone around the 0.6050 level where we
can find the confluence
of the trendline
and the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement
level. If the price were to get there, we can expect the buyers
to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into
new highs with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new
lows.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we broke below a minor upward trendline today which was defining the
bullish momentum since the 0.60 handle. This could be a signal of waning momentum,
so the buyers will likely wait for a bigger pullback or a catalyst before resuming
the uptrend. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we get the US Jobless Claims and US PMIs. On Friday we conclude the
week with Fed Chair Powell speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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Dollar steadies in quiet trading so far 0 (0)

Even though the lack of headlines in the last two days were befitting of a summer lull, there was some decent action in markets. But today, that seems to be absent with broader markets also struggling for any conviction. US futures are flat while bond yields are also little changed on the day. That isn’t giving FX traders much to work with as such.

USD/JPY remains caught in a whirlwind of sorts, trading in a roughly 130 pips range today. The pair is up 0.5% to near 146.00 and well off its low of 144.92 from Asia trading earlier.

Besides that, other major currencies are struggling to really get going today. The dollar has been weaker so far this week but is keeping steadier for now. That said, the ranges among dollar pairs are leaving a lot to be desired.

And as a whole, the dollar remains vulnerable to a further drop as highlighted yesterday here.

The focus this week continues to be on the PMI data tomorrow and then Fed chair Powell’s appearance in Jackson Hole just before the weekend.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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