• It’s a slower start to the new week so far
• What are the main events for today?
• Weekly update on interest rates expectations
• Fed’s Kashkari: It is appropriate to have debate on whether to cut rates in September
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 16 August CHF 464.9 bn vs CHF 463.1 bn prior

Markets:

• JPY leads, USD and CAD lag on the day
• European equities a little higher; S&P 500 futures flat
• US 10-year yields down 1.7 bps to 3.875%
• Gold down 0.6% to $2,492.62
• WTI crude down 0.7% to $76.08
• Bitcoin down 1.7% to $58,250

It was a much slower session as markets calmed down following the more hectic events last week.

There isn’t much on the economic calendar today and there won’t be much until we really get to Thursday. So, that might invite a bit of a lull in broader market sentiment this week.

But the Japanese yen isn’t one to be wanting to sit down though. USD/JPY fell early on in Asia before continuing its drop to 146.10 in early European trading. That was followed by a further drop to 145.18 before the pair moved back up to hover around 146.00 now, still down 1% on the day.

The dollar in general remains more sluggish, with lower bond yields also weighing. EUR/USD is hovering at 1.1040, up 0.1%, while USD/CHF is down 0.2% to 0.8640 currently.

The antipodean currencies are also higher against the dollar, helped by a stronger yuan as well. AUD/USD up 0.4% to near 0.6700 while NZD/USD is up 0.4% as well to 0.6075 at the moment.

In the equities space, investors are keeping a more tentative approach after the gains last week. European indices are marginally higher while US futures are flat, with eyes on Fed chair Powell’s appearance at Jackson Hole later in the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Balance of risks have shifted more towards labour market and away from inflation
• Inflation is making progress
• But labour market is showing some concerning signs

He’s reiterating what we already have come to know in recent weeks. They’ve been teeing up a rate cut in September and this just contributes to that narrative. We’ll see if Powell will be more explicit during his appearance at Jackson Hole later this week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P 500 finally erased the entire drop from the last ISM Manufacturing PMI as the market faded the
“growth scare”. The first catalyst was the good US Jobless Claims on the 8th of
August as that quelled the fears on a deteriorating labour market triggered by
the weak NFP report.

Last week, we got even better Jobless Claims figures and a great Retail Sales report which increased
the bullish momentum. The market’s focus is now clearly on growth. This week,
we will have two key events.

The first will be on Thursday as we will get the release of the US Flash
PMIs for August and that will be kind of a test for the thesis that the July
data was negatively affected by Hurricane Beryl. The second one will be Fed
Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium where he will likely
pre-commit to a rate cut in September.

S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 reached the key 5600 level where the growth scare
began. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk
above the level to position for a drop back into the 5200 level. The buyers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the
bullish bets into a new all-time high.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a key support zone around the 5440 level where we can find
the confluence
of the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and the upward trendline.
If we were to get a bigger pullback, the buyers will likely step in around that
zone to position for a rally into new highs with a better risk to reward setup.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
increase the bearish bets into the 5200 level.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum.
The buyers leant on this trendline on several occasions as they kept on
targeting new highs. We can expect them to keep doing so, but if the price were
to break lower and fall below the last higher low at 5535, the bearish momentum
might increase as the sellers will pile in more aggressively for a drop into
the 5440 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have Fed’s Waller speaking. On Thursday we get the US Jobless Claims
figures and the US PMIs. On Friday we conclude with Fed Chair Powell speaking
at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The thing about this week is that there won’t be as much key risk events on the calendar as last week. And that means market players will not have too much to work with for the time being. Fedspeak is the main thing to be mindful about, as traders digest the key US data from last week. And also considering that we have the Jackson Hole symposium coming up.

There is the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. But in terms of the economic calendar, we’ll have to wait until Thursday for PMI data and also the US weekly jobless claims. So, traders might be left in a bit of a state of flux in the sessions ahead.

For today, the Japanese yen is a standout mover though as the Nikkei fell by 1.8%. USD/JPY dropped to a low of 145.18 earlier but is now trading roughly 100 pips above that again.

The pair is moving back to its recent consolidation range after the break back above 145.00 earlier this month. And the fall in bond yields is also weighing, as noted here.

As for the risk mood today, traders and investors are not finding much conviction. European indices are lightly changed with marginal gains at best. Meanwhile, US futures are still flat and not observing much movement since Asia trading earlier.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Nasdaq finally erased the entire drop from the last ISM
Manufacturing PMI as the market faded the “growth scare”. The first catalyst
was the good US
Jobless Claims on the 8th of August as that quelled the fears on
a deteriorating labour market triggered by the weak NFP
report.

Last week, we got even better Jobless
Claims figures and a great Retail
Sales report which increased the bullish momentum. The market’s focus is
now clearly on growth. This week, we will have two key events.

The first will be on Thursday as we will get the release of the US Flash
PMIs for August and that will be kind of a test for the thesis that the July
data was negatively affected by Hurricane Beryl. The second one will be Fed
Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium where he will likely
pre-commit to a rate cut in September.

Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq broke above the key trendline and extended the gains into the key
19712 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined
risk above the level to position for a drop into the major trendline around the
18000 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. If we
were to get a bigger pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline
where they will also find the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
increase the bearish bets into the 18000 level.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a steeper minor upward trendline that’s been acting as support
for the buyers as they kept on leaning on it to push into higher highs. This is
where we will likely see them stepping in again with a defined risk below the
last higher low at 19445 to position for a break above the key resistance.

The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline and the 19445
level to increase the bearish bets into the other trendline around the 19000
level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have Fed’s Waller speaking. On Thursday we get the US Jobless Claims
figures and the US PMIs. On Friday we conclude with Fed Chair Powell speaking
at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.