Headlines:

• UK July CPI +2.2% vs +2.3% y/y expected
• Traders now see BOE decision in September to be a coin flip
• The kiwi is the main mover today amid dovish RBNZ
• What are the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?
• US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)
• What is the market pricing for the Fed ahead of the US CPI report later?
• France July final CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelim
• Eurozone Q2 GDP second estimate +0.3% vs +0.3% q/q prelim
• Eurozone June industrial production -0.1% vs +0.5% m/m expected
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 9 August +16.8% vs +6.9% prior

Markets:

• EUR leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures flat
• US 10-year yields down 2.3 bps to 3.831%
• Gold up 0.3% to $2,471.93
• WTI crude down 0.3% to $78.10
• Bitcoin up 0.7% to $60,982

It was more of a placeholder session in European morning trade today, as all eyes are on the US CPI report coming up later.

We got inflation numbers from the UK and they were softer than estimated, bolstering expectations for a BOE rate cut next month. The market pricing briefly jumped to near 50-50 before settling down a little bit. Now, traders are seeing ~42% odds of a rate cut as compared to ~36% before the report.

GBP/USD dipped lower initially down to 1.2820 but is now trading back to 1.2840, lower by just 0.1% on the day.

There wasn’t much action in the major currencies space with most dollar pairs relatively muted as traders await the main event later in US trading.

EUR/USD did nudge up a little to 1.1020 from around 1.0990 earlier in the session, with buyers eyeing a firmer break above 1.1000. There are large option expiries at 1.1035 to be mindful of as well.

The kiwi is the weakest performer, owing to a more dovish RBNZ which cut interest rates earlier in the day. NZD/USD remains down 1% at 0.6015, not much changed since Asia.

In the equities space, European stocks are slightly higher while US futures are more muted as the risk mood keeps more tentative for the time being.

It’s over to the US CPI report to see how that will shape things for the remainder of the week now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +6.9%
• Market index 251.3 vs 215.1 prior
• Purchase index 137.7 vs 133.9 prior
• Refinance index 889.3 vs 661.4 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.54% vs 6.55% prior

The big jump in the past week comes as we see a spike in refinancing activity in particular. That comes as the average rate of the most popular US home loan came falling in the last two weeks, amid the plunge in yields. Here’s a look at how the jump in refinancing activity looks from the graph:

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.