Ein Fahrzeugbrand in Südkorea hat für den deutschen Hersteller weitreichende Folgen. Die Behörden verlangen nun, ein normalerweise gut gehütetes Geheimnis preiszugeben.
Aus dem Handelsblatt-Archiv: Finanzpsychologin Julia Pitters erklärt im Interview, was Geld mit uns macht und was Menschen umtreibt, immer mehr Geld haben zu wollen.Markets:
It was a quieter session with Japanese markets closed, so that already set the tone during Asia trading.
There wasn’t much to work with in the European morning either, as market players are more fixated on the key risk events later in the week. For now, it is but a waiting game as such.
The dollar is trading more mixed as risk sentiment is holding up better. The unwinding of the carry trade is easing further as traders are breathing easier again today. USD/JPY pushed higher from around 147.10 in Asia to 147.60 while USD/CHF is up 0.4% to 0.8690 in a decent move.
Meanwhile, AUD/USD is up 0.4% to 0.6600 and NZD/USD up 0.5% to 0.6025 on the day. Besides that, the dollar remains little changed against the euro, pound, and loonie.
In other markets, stocks were calmer as well. European indices opened with slight gains but are keeping guarded mostly. US futures are also just a touch higher, not really getting too carried away with any optimistic push yet.
It’s all about waiting for the big data this week to cook. And only until we get to that will markets start to pile on any moves with more conviction.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
On the change, OPEC says that softening expectations for China’s oil demand is the main reason for that. But the bloc maintains that despite a slow start to the summer driving season, fuel demand is expected to remain „solid due to healthy road and air mobility“.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
All the focus and attention this week is on the US CPI report on Wednesday. But just before that, we will be getting the same report from the UK as well. The thing is given base effects, it is estimated that headline annual inflation in the UK is going to increase from 2.0% in June to 2.3% in July. That will mark the first increase in said reading since December last year.
Logically, this plays into the view among major central banks now that the disinflation process is going to encounter some „bumps along the road“. But this is a market that was very much driven by emotions for the past week or so. As such, market players may not be as composed as you would expect in seeking out a logical reaction initially.
The key detail though will be the core annual inflation reading. That is estimated to hold similar to June at 3.5%. If so, that is likely to help calm the nerves among traders. However, if there is an upside surprise there, then we could see risk trades start to get a bit jittery again ahead of the US CPI report later on in that day.
The BOE already made a cut to its bank rate in a knife-edge call at the start of this month here. They followed that up in saying that markets should not expect continuous rate cuts. And that is precisely what is priced right now. Traders are only seeing ~36% odds of a rate cut in September. So, the inflation numbers this week could seal the deal for a no change decision.
To summarise, I wouldn’t underestimate the impact of the UK report for broader market sentiment. It could yet produce keep traders on edge in fear that the US numbers might also be sticky. Although, I doubt that will be the case. The disinflation process in the US is still ongoing, albeit very gradually. And this week’s numbers should stick with that trend and narrative. But we’ll see about that and stay mindful for any surprises that could come along the way.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
The losses peaked for the
Canadian Dollar last Monday as the volatility normalised, and we got some good
US data throughout the week. That helped to turn around the risk sentiment and
give the Loonie a boost.
The market has been slowly
paring back the aggressive rate cuts expectations for the Fed as now a 25 bps
cut in September is seen as more likely with a total of 98 bps of easing by
year-end. On the BoC side, the market is fully pricing a 25 bps cut in
September and a total of 73 bps of easing by year-end.
USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD spiked above the 1.3860 resistance last Monday due to the global stock
market rout but eventually gave back all the gains as the mood in the market
improved.
The sellers piled in at
every break lower and extended the drop into the 1.3720 level. The natural
target should be the strong support zone around the 1.36 handle. The buyers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the 1.3785 level again
to regain some control and position for new highs.
USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price is consolidating around the 1.3720 level. The sellers will
want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.36
handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely keep on stepping in around
the lows with a defined risk below to position for a rally into a new cycle
high.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the recent price action formed a descending triangle. The price can
break on either side of the pattern but follows next is generally a more
sustained move in the direction of the breakout. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Tomorrow we get the US PPI data. On Wednesday, we have the US CPI report. On
Thursday, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
The moves point to a further relaxing to the carry trade unwind as risk sentiment is keeping steadier. USD/JPY in particular is up 0.5% to 147.30 levels now but is keeping just near the topside of the recent bounce from last week:
It’s not much of a suggestion that we are due a stronger retracement after the sharp fall in July. But buyers are trying to wrestle back some near-term momentum at least. The slow grind higher on the session now sees price move back above its 200-hour moving average of 147.18. It is the first time in four weeks that price action is trading above the key near-term level.
So, that will be one to watch in trying to gauge sentiment in the pair over the next few sessions.
Besides that, USD/CHF is up 0.3% to 0.8680 and also pushing past the same key near-term level as per USD/JPY.
That suggests buyers are back in near-term control but it is still early days. That especially as market players are also going to be watching key US data in the days ahead for more clues.
The euro, sterling, and loonie are all little changed otherwise in the major currencies space. However, the aussie and kiwi are posting slight gains with AUD/USD up 0.4% to near 0.6600 and NZD/USD up 0.5% to 0.6025 currently.
In other markets, S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% while European indices have seen their early gains turn into marginal ones now. So, it’s not that straightforward to kick things off in the new week.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.