The event will take place at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia at 9pm EDT (or 0100 GMT the next day). The question is, if there is a clear winner, who will be better or worse for the dollar?

The short answer is that it isn’t going to be so straightforward.

On the one hand, Trump is more pro-business and could also clamp down hard on trade policy. Tariffs, anyone? And the latter could still benefit the dollar somewhat amid protectionism and safety flows into markets. But too much of that is also a bad thing and could harm the dollar.

And on the other hand, there’s also Trump having recently come out to want a weaker dollar and warning to the Fed not to cut rates before the election. For some context: Trump wants a weaker dollar but will he get his wish?

As for Harris, there’s the argument that her winning will be a continuation of stability amid ongoing policy arrangements. For me, that’s not really an argument on its own but let’s just try to be open a little about it, eh?

But on the flip side, there are concerns over increased spending especially. That raises more questions surrounding the fiscal status of the US and what not. So, again there are arguments on both sides.

Anyway, whatever the case is, markets will eventually find a narrative to land on. And that will be made more clear once there is a favourite going into November. That makes the debate next week a key litmus test in trying to figure out who that will be.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USD has finally got
some relief since last week after being battered for weeks. The focus is now on
the key data this week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI today and the NFP report
on Friday in the spotlight.

The market is waiting for
the key economic releases this week, and especially the NFP report, as that
will likely decide whether the Fed is going to deliver a standard 25 bps cut or
go for a more aggressive 50 bps cut in the upcoming meeting.

Right now, it looks like
the Fed is going to cut rates into a resilient economy, which has been a
positive driver for the risk sentiment, but if the data deteriorates further,
it could trigger recessionary fears.

Therefore, besides the
headline ISM number today, watch also the employment sub-index as a drop into
new lows could spook the markets while an improvement could lead to a positive
sentiment.

Tomorrow, we have also the
BoC Rate Decision where the central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 bps. The
recent CPI report showed some more easing in the
underlying inflation measures and the labour market data was pretty soft.

Overall, it doesn’t look
like the central bank will go for a 50 bps cut but it cannot be completely
ruled out. Including the September cut, the market expects a total of 75 bps of
easing by year end.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD bounced near the 1.34 handle after an incredible run to the
downside. From a risk to reward perspective, the sellers will have a better setup
around the 1.36 handle where they will find a strong resistance
where to lean onto to position for a drop into the 1.32 handle. The buyers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the 1.36 resistance
to get back control and position for a rally into the 1.38 handle.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum.
The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to target the 1.36 resistance,
while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 1.34 handle.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see the recent price action with some clean higher highs and higher lows on
this timeframe. For now, the buyers remain in control and the sellers will need
the price to break below the trendline to change the bias back to bearish. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we have the BoC Rate Decision
and the US Job Openings. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures and
the ISM Services PMI. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the Canadian
labour market report and the US NFP.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The risk mood was seen steadier at the open in Europe this morning but has quickly turned in the last hour or so. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.5% with Nasdaq futures down 0.8%. Meanwhile, Dow futures are also down by 0.5% currently. That is putting a drag on European equities as well while propping up the dollar and yen in FX.

I’m not seeing any clear cut catalyst for the move but it is all coming as we look to greet Wall Street from the long weekend later in the day.

US stocks endured a bumpy ride last week and that was only salvaged by a jump on Friday. In particular, it was the final two hours that saw equities rebound at the time. Something, something, month-end or whatever.

For this week, it’s all about US data so it is perhaps still too early to say much about the move we’re seeing here.

In any case, it is putting a light bid in the dollar with EUR/USD and GBP/USD both down 0.3% to 1.1035 and 1.3110 respectively.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.