Fundamental
Overview

Gold continues to trade in
a tight range as the market awaits the key catalysts this week. As a reminder,
the Fed is now very focused on the labour market as Fed Chair Powell said that
they will not welcome any more weakness and will do everything they can to keep
it strong.

Therefore, the NFP report
on Friday will decide whether the central bank will go with a standard 25 bps
cut in September or take a more aggressive approach with a 50 bps cut. Before
that, we will get other important releases like the ISM Manufacturing PMI tomorrow
which last month triggered the “growth scare”.

In the bigger picture, gold
should remain supported as real yields fall due to the Fed’s rate cut cycle,
but in the short-term, strong US data might weighed on the market a bit.

Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that gold got stuck in a tight range as the lack of catalysts kept the
market at bay. Nonetheless, the buyers remain in control for now and they will
keep targeting new all-time highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price falling back below the 2480 level to turn the bias more bearish
and position for a drop into the 2430 level next.

Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the range between the 2480 support
and the 2530 resistance. The market participants will likely keep on “playing
the range” by buying at support and selling at resistance until we get a
breakout on either side.

Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see the choppy price action of the last two weeks. There’s not much to do here
other than waiting for a breakout. The red lines define the average daily range for today and given the lack of
catalysts and the US holiday we shouldn’t expect any breakout today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Wednesday, we have the US Job
Openings. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures and the ISM Services
PMI. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.

See the video below

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar battled in month-end trading last week and that kept a lid on AUD/USD, with sellers also holding at the July high around the figure level. The key level there will remain a focus this week, especially with the dollar side of the equation set to come under heavy scrutiny.

It’s all about jobs-related data in the US for broader markets to start September trading. And not only will that that heavily influence dollar sentiment, but also risk sentiment this week.

There’s not much in it today with the greenback trading more mixed. USD/JPY is up 0.4% to 146.70 but AUD/USD is up 0.3% to 0.6781 currently. The latter is still trading within a 30 pips range, so I wouldn’t be calling for a serious test of 0.6800 just yet.

Buyers will need some form of trigger to really get going, especially after being checked back last week.

As things stand, the key driver of the move higher in AUD/USD is still a case of a divergence between the RBA and Fed.

Last week, we got more stubborn inflation data from Australia here. However, that wasn’t quite enough to seal a breakout for buyers. It may be month-end or it may be sellers leaning on a key technical level and holding. But the fact is price action is still not signaling a break just yet.

And that brings us to this week now. The focus turns towards labour market data from the US. Traders are pricing in ~29% odds of a 50 bps rate cut later this month by the Fed. And for the remaining three meetings this year, there’s ~98 bps of rate cuts priced in.

Are we going to see more shaky data that will compel traders to try and force the Fed’s hand? Or is it all a hiccup and we’re going to have to run that back a little in the weeks ahead?

That will be key in determining what comes next for AUD/USD as well. It’s been a nice ride up since the double-bottom in early August. Now, we’re at a critical juncture and I wouldn’t be taking any bets until we get more clarity from US data at this stage.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Multi-asset Forex and CFD broker, FP Markets,
further cemented its position as one of the industry’s global leaders, claiming
two prestigious awards at the Finance Magnates Pacific Summit (fmps:24). The
company won ‘Best Forex
Spreads APAC’ and ‘Best Trading Experience APAC’ at the closing event of the
two-day summit which was held on Thursday 29 August, in Sydney, Australia.
Although FP Markets has been credited with several global and regional Finance
Magnates awards and mentions in the past, these are the first to be claimed
regarding its service offering in the Asia Pacific region.

The fmps:24 awards have become some of the most sought after accolades
given their reputation and role in shaping the future of the fintech industry.
As the financial services sector continues to evolve in the Asia Pacific
region, many new clients view such awards as a seal of approval when it comes
to choosing a broker to partner with.

FP Markets has been providing exceptional trading experiences for nearly
two decades, with the company constantly innovating to improve its asset
offering and provide cost-effective trading solutions for retail investors. The
company’s competitive spreads and minimal costs make it especially popular with
short-term scalpers and day traders, and is also reflected in the numerous past
awards it has received for its superior trading conditions.

Thomas Roberts, General Manager of APAC, FP Markets, expressed his
gratitude and commented: ‘These two awards are a major milestone in our
company’s global journey, especially as we approach our 20th anniversary next
year. To win, and to do it on our home
ground, the place where it all started, shows how far we’ve come these past two
decades. Also, to be recognised for delivering what our mission as a company
encapsulates – giving traders the best possible trading experience and superior
trading conditions – demonstrates our unwavering commitment to our clients,
existing and new, wherever they are located in the world’.

About
FP Markets:

●
FP Markets is a Multi-Regulated Forex
and CFD Broker with over 19 years of industry experience.

●
The company offers highly competitive
interbank Forex spreads starting from 0.0 pips.

●
Traders can choose from leading
powerful online trading platforms,
including FP Markets’ Mobile App, MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, WebTrader, cTrader, Iress and TradingView.

●
The company’s outstanding 24/7
multilingual customer service has been recognised by Investment Trends and
awarded ‘The Highest Overall Client Satisfaction Award’ over five consecutive
years.

●
FP Markets was awarded ‘Best Global
Forex Value Broker’ for five consecutive years (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023)
at the Global Forex Awards.

●
FP Markets was awarded the ‘Best Forex
Broker – Europe’ and the ‘Best Forex Partners Programme – Asia’ at the Global
Forex Awards 2022 and 2023.

●
FP Markets was awarded ‘Best Trade
Execution’, and ‘Most Trusted Broker’ and ‘Best Trade Execution’ at the
Ultimate Fintech Awards in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

●
FP Markets was crowned ‘Best CFD
Broker – Africa’ at the 2023 FAME Awards.

●
FP Markets was awarded ‘Best Trade
Execution’ and ‘Most Transparent Broker’ at the Ultimate Fintech Awards APAC
2023.

●
FP Markets was awarded the ‘Best Price
Execution’ at the Brokersview Awards 2024, Singapore.

●
FP Markets was awarded the ‘Best
Trading Experience – Africa’ at the FAME Awards 2024.

●
FP Markets was awarded ‘Most Transparent Broker’
and ‘Best Trading Conditions’ at the
Global Ultimate Fintech Awards 2024.

●
FP Markets regulatory presence
includes the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), the
Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) of South Africa, the Financial
Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission
(CySEC), the Securities Commission of the Bahamas (SCB), and the Capital
Markets Authority (CMA) of Kenya.

For more information on FP
Markets‘ comprehensive range of products and services, visit https://www.fpmarkets.com/

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 99 bps (69% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 58 bps (98% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 39 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 75 bps (79% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 19 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 72 bps (79% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 51 bps (70% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 7 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

*Where you see 25 bps probability, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.