The New York Times released a poll today showing Trump and Harris deadlocked. That’s bad news for the Harris campaign as she had previously been leading. Combined with betting odds shifting in Trump’s favor and it’s starting to feel like we’ve hit a tipping point.

The bond market has been selling off steadily today, which reads like a Trump trade. At the same time, the stock market has been selling off steadily after opening higher and is down on the week.

So what gives? Surely there are some people making election bets but real money knows better. Elections are very tough to predict.

I think we all remember the polling errors in 2016 and 2020 but here is a reminder from Bespoke of what the polls looked like in 2012, which ended up being a 4-point win for Obama and 332-206 in the electoral college.

The kicker here is that betting markets had Obama as a decided favorite, even in the final week as the polls tightened. Right now, betting sites are at about 60:40 for Trump.

As I often say: There is always another trade. Politics and betting on binary outcomes is a tough way to make money in markets. All the best trades on the election are going to be after the results are clear, just like in the last two elections.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Fed blackout starts at midnight but the week ahead is packed with market-moving data, decisions and earnings reports.

Here’s a day-by-day preview of the week ahead:

MONDAY, OCTOBER 28

• US data: Dallas Fed manufacturing activity
• UK: Lloyds Business Barometer
• Japan: Jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio
• ECB’s Wunsch speaks
• Earnings: Ford, Waste Management
• US Treasury Quarterly borrowing estimates, 2yr ($69bn) and 5yr ($70bn) note auctions

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29:

• US: JOLTS job openings, Conference Board consumer confidence (98.7 prior)
• UK: Consumer credit, M4 money supply
• Germany: GfK consumer confidence
• Tech earnings: Alphabet (Google), AMD
• Others: McDonald’s, Pfizer, BP, Visa, PayPal

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 30

Big data day:

• US: Q3 GDP first reading, ADP employment
• Eurozone: Q3 GDP
• Germany: CPI, Q3 GDP
• France: Q3 GDP
• Australia: Q3 CPI
• Tech earnings: Microsoft, Meta
• Others: Boeing, Volkswagen, BASF
• UK Autumn Budget
• US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31

• Bank of Japan policy decision
• US: PCE inflation (core seen +0.28% MoM)
• Eurozone: CPI, unemployment
• China: Official PMIs
• Heavyweight earnings: Apple, Amazon, Intel, Samsung
• Energy: Shell, TotalEnergies, ConocoPhillips
• Others: Mastercard, Merck

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1

• US: Nonfarm payrolls (some forecasts as low as 0K, consensus at +123K), ISM manufacturing
• China: Caixin manufacturing PMI
• Switzerland: CPI
• Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron

The week’s big focus will be on the US jobs report Friday, but markets will have plenty to digest before then with Q3 GDP, inflation data, and massive tech earnings. With five of the „Magnificent 7“ reporting (representing $12 trillion in market cap), expect some volatility in equity and currency markets throughout the week.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Having returned to low inflation, Canada is in a better place to deal with new economic shocks
• There’s a fair amount of uncertainty on how quickly Canada’s new immigration curbs kick in, BOC will be watching
• Effect of changes in assumptions about population growth will have a bigger impact on our GDP forecast that our inflation forecast
• If population growth slows faster than assumed, headline GDP will be lower than assumed

The Canadian government announced 20% lower immigration targets yesterday.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.