Fundamental
Overview

Last week, we got a
pullback in the S&P 500 as the higher than expected inflation readings and
a less dovish Powell weighed a bit on the market.

Despite the recent events
though, the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by
the end of 2025. This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the
current pricing, and we will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining
rate cuts.

The only bearish reason we
had for the stock market was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally
bearish only when the Fed is tightening policy though not when yields rise on positive
growth expectations.

Right now, the Fed’s
reaction function is that a strong economy would warrant an earlier pause in
the easing cycle and not a tightening. That should still be supportive for the
stock market in the bigger picture considering that Trump’s policies include
tax cuts and deregulation.

If the Fed’s reaction
function changes to a potential tightening, then that will likely trigger a big
correction in the stock market on expected economic slowdown.

For now, the pullbacks look
as something healthy and opportunities to buy the dips.

S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 dropped below the 5918 support level but bounced back a couple of days later
as the dip-buyers took advantage. As long as the price stays above the 5918
level, we can expect the buyers to pile in to position for a rally into a new
all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling
back below the support to target a test of the trendline.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the choppy price action around the 5918 level as the market
continues to wait for catalysts to push into either direction. There’s not much
else we can glean from this timeframe although the 5918 level will likely act
as a barometer for the sentiment.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor support around the 5930 level. If we get a
pullback, the buyers will likely step in around those level with a defined risk
below them to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on
the other hand, will look for a break lower to target a drop into the major trendline.
The red lines define the average daily range for today

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow, we
get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week
with the US PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

That’s a bit problematic for the ECB as pay growth is seen accelerating once again. That is unlikely to put off a December rate cut though as the wages data here hasn’t really translated to any significant reacceleration in consumer prices. So, the hope for policymakers is that wage pressures should fade going into next year. But we’ll see.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The US Dollar continues to
consolidate despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less
dovish Powell last week. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at
three rate cuts by the end of 2025.

This might be a signal that
the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could lead to some general
US Dollar weakness in the short term.

On the NZD side, the market
is pricing an 80% chance of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting and a total of
142 bps of easing by the end of 2025. Inflation is back in the RBNZ’s target
range, so the central bank can focus on growth now especially with the unemployment
rate continuing to climb.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD bounced from the key support
around the 0.5850 level and rallied into the major trendline
where we got some rejection as the sellers stepped back in. The buyers will
want to see the price breaking above the trendline to increase the bullish bets
into the 0.6050 resistance, while the sellers will look for a break below the
0.5850 support to target the 0.5773 low.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price rejected the swing low level at 0.5912 near the major
trendline as the sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the trendline to
target the break below the 0.5850 support. There’s not much else we can add here
as the buyers will need a break above the trendline to gain more conviction for
further upside.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support zone around the 0.5780 level. This is where we
can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to
position for the break above the major trendline with a better risk to reward setup.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase
the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow,
we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the
week with the US PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.