The S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES March 2025) are trading at 5969.75 at the time of this analysis. Below is a breakdown of the key levels and the broader market outlook for both S&P 500 intraday traders and swing traders.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures Levels for Traders Today

Bullish Bias Levels for ES

• 5952.95: Today’s developing VWAP, currently trending upward. As long as price remains above this level, the bullish bias in S&P 500 E-mini Futures is intact.
• 5980: A key resistance level likely to be tested as the market rises.
• 5989–5990: An important resistance zone, acting as a potential gateway to the 6000 psychological level.
• 6000: Reclaiming this level could signal a stronger bullish push, setting the stage for additional upside targets in the coming days.

Bearish Bias Levels for ES

• 5952.95: Falling below today’s developing VWAP would indicate a shift toward bearish sentiment for S&P 500 Futures.
• 5929.5: The Value Area Low (VAL) of December 20, a critical support level for ES.
• 5921.5: Yesterday’s Value Area Low (VAL). A break below this could pave the way for a test of the 5900 round number.

Swing Trade Context for S&P 500 E-mini Futures Traders

Upside Price Targets for Swing Traders

• 6023: A key level to watch this week. Reaching this target would reinforce the bullish trend in S&P 500 E-mini Futures.
• 6050: An important upside price target, indicating sustained momentum.
• 6100–6105: This zone represents a significant profit-taking area for swing traders. If price reaches this level, expect temporary pullbacks as traders lock in gains.

Downside Price Targets for Swing Traders

• 5900: A key psychological support level for ES Futures, likely to draw attention if the market weakens.
• 5860: The 20 EMA on the weekly timeframe, a critical support level for S&P 500 swing traders.

Broader Market Outlook for ES Futures and the S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 Futures market maintains a bullish bias above 5952.95, with price likely to test resistance at 5980 and 5990 before attempting to reclaim the 6000 round number. A break above 6000 could open the path to 6023 and 6050 in the coming days, while swing traders may target 6100–6105 as a key profit-taking zone.

On the downside, losing 5952.95 as support shifts the focus to 5929.5 and 5921.5, with a potential move toward the 5900 psychological level and the 20 EMA at 5860 for swing traders.

What S&P 500 Traders Should Be Looking Out For

• Above 5952.95: The bullish trend remains intact for S&P 500 Futures, with resistance at 5980, 5990, and 6000. Swing traders should monitor the weekly upside targets of 6023, 6050, and 6100–6105.
• Below 5952.95: A bearish shift in ES Futures, with support levels at 5929.5 and 5921.5. A break below these levels could trigger further downside toward 5900 or 5860.

As always, trade S&P 500 E-mini Futures and the broader S&P 500 Index at your own risk. Visit ForexLive.com for additional perspectives and analysis. Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

January is already promising some big moves in the major currencies space and we’re off to a rather decent start. The euro and sterling are being offered in European morning trade, both stumbling lower across the board. Of note, EUR/USD is now down to its lowest since November 2022 while GBP/USD is down to its lowest since May.

Looking to the EUR/USD chart above, the sinking towards parity remains very much on the cards with the technicals also lining up. With political uncertainty also set to cast a large shadow over Europe in the first half of the year, it might be tough to feel optimistic about the euro or euro-related assets at this point.

That is not to mention the potential headwind of Trump tariffs also set to enter into the picture.

It’s tough to pick at support levels for EUR/USD at the moment and that is the danger for the pair as any further drop could well be exacerbated by the lack of supportive elements.

As for GBP/USD, the drop today looks to solidify a weekly break under 1.2500. And that will cast the focus on the support from the April low near 1.2300 next.

A hotter dollar continues to make a case for a downside move in the pair, especially with the selloff in the bond market in December. That’s certainly a spot to be mindful about even if there might be a short-term retracement in January. 10-year yields in the US are down 4 bps to 4.536% today while 10-year yields in the UK are down 1.5 bps to 4.558% currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

On January 20, the new (or old) President of the U.S.,
Donald Trump, will be inaugurated, and the big question on the minds of private
investors and governments alike is: what now?

Throughout his campaign, Trump made numerous promises,
including tackling the US national debt, ending the Ukraine conflict in one
day, and, of course, imposing tariffs
against the rest of the world.

In addition, he promised to cut taxes, including those for
corporations. This fueled optimism in the markets, which boosted the S&P 500,
Nasdaq, and Dow Jones following the announcement of the results.

But will Trump deliver all his promises?

Throughout his political career, Trump
has made many promises but has not always kept them. A clear example is the
construction of the wall with Mexico, the main issue of his previous campaign.

First, out of the 1,000 promised miles, which were later
reduced to 500 miles, only 47 miles of new barriers were built. The rest were
renovations of existing structures.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, U.S. taxpayers ended
up paying $15 billion for this, not the president of Mexico, as initially
promised. Nor did it solve the illegal immigration problem.

Trump also promised to eliminate the national debt, which
ballooned by $8.4 trillion. The same trend is expected to continue, and the
debt is unlikely to fall below $36 trillion soon.

According to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible
Federal Budget, its tax cut proposals alone will add $7.5 trillion to the
national debt over the next decade. The BTC reserve likely won’t help solve
this issue.

The main issue is that the government
already spends massive amounts to service the debt. From $476 billion in
2022, the cost has risen rapidly to $882 billion in 2024 and is expected to
continue growing.

As Bankinter analysts highlight, a 3% deficit combined with
3% in interest payments exceeds the typical GDP growth rate of 4.5%. This leads
to a continued 1.5% increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio.

Not surprisingly, despite four rate cuts totaling 1%, yields
on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remain higher than where they started the year
(well before the Fed changed monetary policy).

Another potential setback could come from resolving the
geopolitical crises, especially between Russia and Ukraine, where neither side
seems willing to budge on their positions.

Bottom line?

Trump may be able to deliver on his promises when he has all
the necessary levers of power, or he may not. In this regard, making big bets
on guaranteed outcomes seems risky.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The British Pound Futures (6B March 2025) are trading at 1.2482, correlating closely with the GBP/USD Forex pair at 1.24877. The British Pound appears bearish in the broader context, with key levels pointing to further downside potential. Below is a detailed breakdown for both swing traders and day traders.

GBPUSD Swing Traders: Broader Bearish Trend

On the monthly chart, the British Pound Futures are continuing a leg down from the high of 1.3431 reached in September 2024. This follows a broader downtrend since the historic low of 1.0392 on September 1, 2022.

The next key levels to watch are:

• 1.246: A significant historic level with high liquidity, likely to act as the next support.
• 1.244 and 1.2436: Deeper support levels, representing additional liquidity zones that may come into play if 1.246 is broken.

Swing traders should focus on these levels as potential targets in the ongoing bearish trend.

Day Traders: Key Levels for the Cable Today

Bearish Levels to Watch

• 1.248: Today’s developing Value Area Low (VAL). Price seems intent on breaking below this level, signaling further bearish momentum toward 1.246.
• 1.2493: Today’s Point of Control (POC), where significant trading volume is concentrated.
• 1.2498 and 1.2504: Both previous naked levels that could act as minor resistance if price retraces.
• 1.2506: Today’s developing VWAP, the critical line in the sand between bulls and bears. As long as price remains below this level, the bearish outlook dominates.

Bullish Levels to Watch for British Pound Futures

• 1.2515: Today’s developing Value Area High (VAH). A break above this level could open the door to a short-term bullish move.
• 1.2535: Yesterday’s Value Area High (VAH) and a naked level for today.

Outlook for the Great British Pound: Bears in Control

The British Pound Futures market is showing a strong bearish bias. Unless price conquers the VWAP at 1.2506 and moves above today’s VAH at 1.2515, the bearish trend is likely to persist, targeting 1.246 and potentially lower levels like 1.244 and 1.2436.

What British Pound Traders Should Be Looking Out For

• Below 1.2506: The market remains bearish. Watch for a break of 1.248 to confirm momentum toward 1.246.
• Above 1.2506: A bullish scenario emerges, with potential resistance at 1.2515 and 1.2535.
• Swing Focus: The broader downtrend suggests 1.246 is a key target for swing traders, with further downside to 1.244 and 1.2436 if support fails.

As always, trade British Pound Futures and the GBP/USD pair at your own risk and align strategies with your market outlook.Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

In case you missed the post here last week: What’s the next step for major central banks in 2025?

January will feature a couple of major central bank decisions, namely the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and BOC. As things stand, traders are pricing in no change for the Fed while the ECB and BOC are expected to cut rates by 25 bps. As for the BOJ, traders are leaning slightly more towards them leaving rates unchanged (~59%) as opposed to a 25 bps rate hike (~41%). That said, it does mean that traders have priced in around 10 bps worth of a rate hike – at least in the OIS market.

Besides the BOJ, the policy decisions elsewhere should be relatively straightforward. And even if you want to argue that the BOJ might have the propensity to surprise, one can argue that Ueda already tried to tone that down last month. In any case, the meeting decision will only come on 24 January and one can reasonably expect there to be leaks in the week before. So, that’ll settle things in terms of BOJ expectations.

The Fed will remain the most interesting among the bunch, not in terms of what they will do in January. But instead of how their outlook might evolve through the course of the year. With Trump looking over Powell’s shoulders as well, it will add more intrigue for sure. Currently, Fed funds futures are showing ~45 bps of rate cuts priced in with the first full rate cut only priced in for June.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.