It is being reported that the current discussions are for tariffs to be applied to all countries but to only cover critical imports. The tariffs will only be on certain sectors deemed critical to national or economic security, according to the report.

The dollar has fallen on the headlines here with USD/JPY stumbling from 157.80 to 157.40 currently. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is now up nearly 1% on the day to 1.0407 at the moment.

I want to say that there is some cachet to this line of thinking. But realistically, do you think Trump will talk up such a small game after having gone big with all his threats since last year? Even the latest round of tweets here don’t seem to suggest that.

As such, I wouldn’t be surprised if he does sort of deny or overwrite whatever the report here is saying in due time. As for when the tariffs do get implemented, whether or not they do walk the walk, that’s a different matter. For now, it’s all about the conceptualisation of it.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bernanke said that the policies set out by Trump may not necessarily cause a major shift in inflation dynamics. He argued that:

„I agree Trump policies, whatever their merits on public-finance grounds, probably will be modest in terms of their effect on the inflation rate. Barring some very unusual situation, including geopolitical risks, it doesn’t seem it is really going to shift the inflation path radically.“

Adding that the tax cuts that Trump wants to pursue are already pretty much in place. The main issue though is tariffs, as it is uncertain if Trump will use that for bargaining on trade or will want to keep them permanently. Bernanke says that import tariffs will reduce output and raise inflation, so that will put the Fed in a tougher spot to respond.

Well, Trump tariffs remain one of, if not the biggest known unknowns in markets at the moment. And that’s going to be a key influence for Fed policy in the months ahead. So, we’ll have to wait and see how he wants to play that out. Big boss man.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Australian Dollar Futures (6A), March 2025 Contract: Key Levels, Analysis, and Price Prediction for the Australian Dollar Futures Market

Current Price: 0.6245

Market Overview and Key Dynamics in Australian Dollar Futures

The Australian dollar futures market, particularly the AUDUSD pair, is showing signs of a continued upward reversal. This Aussie dollar strength is driven by bullish momentum, with the potential for retracements to critical support levels, offering strategic opportunities for long positions. Traders analyzing Australian dollar futures should pay close attention to the following areas in this price prediction:

Key Support Levels in Australian Dollar Futures

1. 0.62395 – Today’s developing Value Area High (VAH).

   • A shallow retracement to this level would still be bullish and could act as a strong support zone for buyers in the AUDUSD futures market.

2. 0.62330 – Today’s developing VWAP and the VAH of the previous three days.

   • A highly significant level due to its confluence of support from both intraday and historical data. This level is ideal for potential long entries, especially for traders looking to ride the upward momentum in Australian dollar futures.

3. Stop Placement Options:

   • Tighter Stops: Near 0.62250, just below the closing VWAP of December 30th. Suitable for short-term traders seeking lower risk in their AUDUSD trades.

   • Wider Stops: At 0.62195 or 0.62210 (current and yesterday’s VAH), providing more room for price fluctuation and accommodating a longer-term view.

Resistance and Price Magnet Levels for Australian Dollar Futures

1. 0.62600 – A strong price magnet for bulls in Australian dollar futures, attracting liquidity and likely triggering short stops above this level.

2. 0.62860 – An extended target, likely achievable on continued bullish momentum in the AUDUSD market.

3. 0.63160 – December 18th’s POC, a longer-term bullish target that may not be reached today but remains in play for the week.

Bearish Scenario in Australian Dollar Futures

• Critical Level: A break below 0.62090 (yesterday’s Value Area Low) would signal bearish control in the Australian dollar futures market.

• Downside Targets:

  • 0.61930 – A near-term bearish target for the AUDUSD.

  • 0.61805 – December 30th’s VAH, aligning with the year-end support level.

Trading Recommendations for Australian Dollar Futures

1. Bullish Setup:

   • Consider long positions near 0.62330 or 0.62395 with tight or moderate stops, depending on your risk appetite.

   • Target the strong resistance at 0.62600, with extensions to 0.62860 and 0.63160. These levels offer high potential in Australian dollar futures trading.

2. Bearish Setup:

   • A decisive break below 0.62090 could open the door for short opportunities in AUDUSD futures, targeting 0.61930 and 0.61805.

Final Thoughts on Australian Dollar Futures

The Australian dollar futures market is presenting clear levels of interest for both bulls and bears. While the bullish bias is currently dominant, retracements to key support levels may offer attractive entry points in AUDUSD. Use the outlined price levels as guides and junctions to anticipate strong price reactions. This analysis of Australian dollar futures emphasizes the importance of managing risk and conducting thorough research in your price prediction strategies. Whether trading AUDUSD short-term or long-term, these levels provide valuable insights for market participants. Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• Fed: 40 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 97 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 55 bps (64% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 65 bps (68% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 72 bps (52% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 119 bps (69% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 45 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 49 bps (54% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin Futures (BTC1!) Analysis: Key Levels and Market Dynamics

Current Price: $99,665 (+0.44%)

Resistance and Liquidity Area: $102,000 to $102,500

• Price Magnet: This area acts as a magnet due to its high liquidity. Many participants and algorithmic strategies are expecting the price to reach this level. Market makers are incentivized to move the price toward this area to absorb the liquidity.

• Potential Selling Pressure: If the price reaches this resistance zone, partial profit-taking and selling pressure are likely. If this area holds as resistance, it could lead to a temporary pullback.

• Bullish Breakout: A sustained move above $102,500 signals strong bullish momentum, with the next target range at $105,500 to $105,750, offering a significant $3,500 jump between the two levels.

Support and Retracement Area: $98,500 to $98,000

• Bullish Above: As long as the price remains above this zone, the market sentiment remains bullish. This area coincides with the developing VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price), currently just under $98,500, making it a potential entry point for long positions.

• Long Setup: If the price retraces to this area, traders may consider entering long positions (at their discretion and risk) to target $102,000 and beyond. Significant partial profits should be taken near $102,000 to mitigate the risk of reversal.

Bearish Breakdown Below Support

• Key Bearish Level: A 30-minute candle close below $96,500 would indicate that bears have gained control of the market.

• Downside Targets: If the price breaks below $96,500, it could lead to a deeper retracement with potential downside targets at $93,700.

Key Observations

1. Liquidity Drives Price: The resistance zone ($102,000 to $102,500) is a magnet for price due to concentrated liquidity. Market makers may exploit this area to generate significant volume.

2. VWAP as a Support Indicator: The developing VWAP near $98,500 serves as an important dynamic support level and a potential area for buyers to step in.

3. Risk Management: Traders should monitor 30-minute candle closes for confirmation of either bullish or bearish trends at critical levels.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin futures are positioned in a critical zone, with high liquidity above and solid support below. Traders should remain cautious near resistance levels and monitor price action for signs of strength or weakness. Key levels to watch are $102,000 to $102,500 for potential resistance and $98,500 to $98,000 as a strong support zone. A move above $102,500 opens the door to the next major resistance at $105,500 to $105,750, while a breakdown below $96,500 could signal a bearish reversal toward the next stop at $93,700. Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.