A strong and decent enough non-farm payrolls print but perhaps a tick higher in the unemployment rate. That seems to be the growing consensus going into the US jobs report later and that would give markets plenty to think about. The former is likely the case after the resolution of the UAW strikes while the latter is a sign of softening in labour market conditions as the economy slows down.

So, what will that tell us if we do see things play out this way?

All else being equal, that should reaffirm that the Fed is done with rate hikes. The wage numbers are also expected to come in at 4.0% year-on-year, the smallest annual growth since the middle of 2021. So, that should rebuff the narrative that we’re navigating towards a soft landing with gradually declining price pressures.

In other words, markets can find reason to cheer on a mixed report with the dollar potentially struggling in the aftermath and risk trades ripping higher once again. Just some food for thought.

Here’s a quick snapshot on the expectations and estimates going into the report today: Preview: November non-farm payrolls by the numbers

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.