The SNB will also be part of the mix and while not many are talking about the Swiss central bank, they are one of the few ones to have really surprised markets over the last two years. The latest one was to hold its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% in September here. So, are they now expected to be on pause mode for an extended period?

Let’s take a look at some analyst expectations going into tomorrow’s decision.

BofA

• Rates on hold at 1.75%
• SNB is likely on a longer pause than the ECB now
• No change in language surrounding the Swiss franc for the time being
• First rate cut only expected in Q3 2024

Goldman Sachs

• Rates on hold at 1.75%
• SNB to lower inflation forecasts, while acknowledging lower inflation in the Eurozone and US too
• No pressure for the SNB to cut as quickly as other central banks given „relatively low rate peak“
• First rate cut only expected in September 2024

UBS

• Rates on hold at 1.75%
• Inflation forecast to be revised lower
• SNB likely not decided on any FX intervention yet moving forward
• No changes expected to tiering framework
• First rate cut projected for June 2024, with policy rate seen at 1% in December 2024

Nomura

• Rates on hold at 1.75%
• SNB to communicate „weaker verbal commitment to FX sales“
• Swiss economy has a deflation problem rather than an inflation problem
• In that lieu, inflation likely to approach 0% again by the end of 2024
• SNB to revise lower its inflation forecasts
• First rate cut expected in June 2024

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.