A more tentative mood so far in trading today


The dollar is trading a little mixed but not much changed overall, after being slightly lower earlier in the day. EUR/USD moved up to 1.0905 before keeping flattish around 1.0888 now while USD/JPY fell to a low of 147.65 before recovering to 147.91 at the moment. In my view, the lack of impetus has much to do with some indecision in the bond market for now:

10-year yields in the US broke above 4.10% after the retail sales data yesterday but there has been a lack of follow through after. Yields are down 2.5 bps today to 4.079% and more importantly, nudging back below the 200-day moving average (blue line) of 4.084%. I would say that is sort of keeping broader markets on edge in trading today.

Major currencies are not really doing a whole lot across the board while equities are also looking fairly tentative for the time being. European stocks are slightly higher but it comes after the heavy losses from earlier this week, while S&P 500 futures are up just 0.1%. So, that is not really helping to give traders much to work with.

Coming up later, we will have the US weekly jobless claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index. Those are minor releases but could offer an excuse for traders to act upon. Otherwise, the lack of any inspiration as seen so far today is not really providing traders with much conviction.

The bond market especially is the one to watch as traders are watching to see if yields will keep the break of the key technical level above or if yesterday’s reaction will be faded. That is sort of where we are at now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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