week, we heard from central bank speakers. The prevailing consensus remains the
same: a cautious approach awaiting further data before determining the extent
of additional tightening. While the majority of the FOMC members expect two
additional rate hikes in the current year, they consistently highlight their
data-dependent approach. The data from last week leans towards supporting a
rate hike, as the housing market indicators surprised to the upside, the US Jobless Claims remained stable, and the US Services PMI were stronger than expected. Naturally,
the upcoming NFP and CPI reports will have a crucial role in shaping future expectations
but if we continue to see positive data, the market’s expectation of a rate
increase by the Fed in July appears highly likely.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that since tapping
into the 0.69 handle, AUDUSD sold off pretty heavily into the 0.67 handle where
we can also find the red 21 moving average and the
50% Fibonacci retracement level.
This is where we should expect buyers to come in to try another rally towards
the 0.69 high. A failure to do so, should lead to a depreciation into the
0.6563 support.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that after breaking
below the rising channel, the bullish trend switched to a bearish one as the
moving averages have also crossed to the downside. At the moment, the price is
getting rejected by the strong resistance near the trendline as there
is confluence with the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the current price action and the clean rejection from the Fibonacci
level. The buyers are likely to lean on the support zone near the 0.6680 level
with a defined stop below the low and target the 0.69 handle again. More
conservative buyers may want to wait for the price to first break above the
trendline before piling in and extend the rally towards the 0.69 high. On the
other hand, the sellers should pile in even more aggressively if the price
break below the 0.6660 level and target the 0.6560 support.
The data calendar
for this week is relatively light, featuring only the US Jobless Claims on
Thursday, followed by the US PCE on Friday. However, despite the limited data
releases, we will still hear from many central bank members throughout the
week.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.