AUDUSD Technical Analysis


  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
    expected at the last meeting with a shift in the statement that indicated the
    end of the tightening cycle.
  • The Summary of Economic Projections showed a
    downward revision to Growth and Core PCE in 2024 while the Unemployment Rate
    was left unchanged. Moreover, the Dot Plot was revised to show three rate cuts
    in 2024 compared to just two in the last projection.
  • Fed Chair Powell didn’t
    push back against the strong dovish pricing and even said that they are focused
    on not making the mistake of holding rates high for too long.
  • The latest US CPI
    slightly beat expectations but analysts expect the Core PCE to print at 0.2%
    M/M again following the CPI data.
  • The labour market continues to soften although Initial Claims keep on
    hovering around cycle lows while Continuing Claims got stuck at a higher level.
  • The latest ISM Manufacturing

    beat expectations, while the ISM Services PMI missed
    by a big margin.
  • The hawkish Fed members have been leaning
    on a more neutral side lately.
  • The market expects the Fed to start cutting rates
    in Q1 2024.


  • The
    RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with
    the central bank maintaining the usual data dependent language.
  • The
    recent Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
    the board which is another welcome development for the RBA.
  • The
    latest labour market report beat forecasts across the
    board although the unemployment rate rose more than expected.
  • The
    wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
    growth in Australia remains strong.
  • The
    Australian PMIs improved recently but remain in
  • The
    market expects the RBA to start cutting rates in Q3 2024.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD continues
to consolidate at a key support zone
around the 0.6670 level where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. The
buyers are likely to keep piling in here with a defined risk below the support
to position for a rally into the 0.69 handle. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the
0.65 handle.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the recent
price action has been rangebound as the market remains uncertain where to go
next given the mixed economic data. If the price breaks above the minor trendline we can
expect the buyers to increase the bullish bets into the 0.69 handle while a
break below the support will likely trigger a selloff into the 0.65 level.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action with no clear level where to lean onto except
the support zone and the minor trendline. The best strategy is generally to sit
out and wait for a breakout supported by a fundamental catalyst, although one
can also “play the range” by buying at support and selling at resistance.

Upcoming Events

Today the only notable event on the agenda is the US
PPI data.

This article was written by FL Contributors at

Go to Forexlive

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