• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting with a shift in the statement that indicated the
  end of the tightening cycle.
• The Summary of Economic Projections showed a
  downward revision to Growth and Core PCE in 2024 while the Unemployment Rate
  was left unchanged. Moreover, the Dot Plot was revised to show three rate cuts
  in 2024 compared to just two in the last projection.
• Fed Chair Powell didn’t
  push back against the strong dovish pricing and even said that they are focused
  on not making the mistake of holding rates high for too long.
• The latest US CPI
  slightly beat expectations but analysts expect the Core PCE to print at 0.2%
  M/M again following the CPI data.
• The labour market continues to soften but remains
  resilient with US Jobless Claims beating
  expectations week after week.
• The latest ISM Manufacturing
  PMI
  beat expectations, while the ISM Services PMI missed
  by a big margin.
• The US Retail Sales beat
  expectations across the board.
• The Fed members recently have been pushing
  back on the aggressive rate cuts expectations.
• The market expectation for a rate cut in March fell
  to roughly 50%.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with
  the central bank maintaining the usual data dependent language.
• The
  recent Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
  the board which is another welcome development for the RBA.
• The
  latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  latest Australian PMIs improved but remain in contraction.
• The
  market expects the RBA to start cutting rates in June.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD bounced
on the key support zone
around the 0.65 handle as the price got overstretched on the downside as
depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk
management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward
setup around the downward trendline where
they will also find the confluence with the
Fibonacci retracement levels.
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the
trendline to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into
the 0.69 resistance.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has been diverging with
the MACD as it
was approaching the key support zone. This is generally a sign of weakening
momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it should be
an extra confirmation for a pullback into the trendline. At the moment, we have
a minor upward trendline defining the uptrend on this timeframe. The buyers
will likely keep on leaning on it to extend the rally into the major trendline
while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and
target a break below the key support.

Upcoming Events

Today, the only notable event will be the University
of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.