Copper recently got a boost from the Chinese Politburo announcement that it will adopt a
“moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy for 2025 and will seek a “more
proactive” fiscal policy.

These were key changes in the language that triggered a rally in Chinese
stocks and commodity linked markets. Unfortunately, as it’s been the case for
quite some time, the moves were reversed, and we got back to square one pretty
quickly.

Nevertheless, this was a strong shift, and the market might just be waiting
for the Chinese to walk the talk this time around. On Friday, we have the PBoC
LPR decision and big rate cuts might trigger another rally in copper.

Copper
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that copper couldn’t break above the key resistance
around the 4.31 level where we had also the trendline
for confluence.
The sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for
a drop into the major trendline around the 3.90 level. The buyers will now look
for buying opportunities on the lower timeframes but a break above the key
resistance should open up for a rally into the 4.70 level next.

Copper Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we had also an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum that
once got broken, opened the way for new lows as the sellers piled in more
aggressively and the buyers folded.

We are now bouncing from another
upward trendline and if we get a pullback into it again, we can expect the
buyers to try once again for a rally into the 4.31 resistance. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the major upward
trendline to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

Copper Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum on
this timeframe. The sellers will likely lean on it to position for a break
below the major trendline, while the buyers will look for a break higher to
increase the bullish bets into the key resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today, we have the FOMC Policy Decision. Tomorrow, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the PBoC LPR
decision and the US PCE data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Current Overview

Alphabet (GOOG) stock, what many still call Google stock, is trading near $198.54, aligning with yesterday’s VWAP—a critical price magnet. Price has retraced upward after testing the $196.90 support (yesterday’s VAL) and is now aiming for junctions that could trigger significant market reactions.

🔑 Next Key Price Levels to Watch for GOOG Stock

1. Support Levels:
   • 196.90: Yesterday’s Value Area Low, where buyers initially stepped in.
   • 191.26: A critical naked level from two days ago, acting as the potential bottom of the current range.

2. Resistance Levels to Monitor:

   • 198.98: Yesterday’s Value Area High, close to the psychological round number $199.
   • 200.00: Strong magnet for trader psychology and the Value Area High of two days ago.
   • 203.15: Just above yesterday’s high, an area where sellers may step in for a reversal opportunity.

3. Extended Short Opportunity:

   • 204.65: A reasonable stop-loss area for short positions initiated at 203.15.

Volumetric Insights for GOOG 📊

Volumetric stats show:

• Early selling pressure, with significant negative delta and aggressive sellers dominating key bars.
• However, the most recent session shows buyers stepping in, with notable absorption of sell volume.

Why It Matters: This indicates the potential for short-term upward retracement, but price reactions near $199–$200 and yesterday’s high ($203.15) will determine if sellers regain control.

AI Directional Bias Score for Google Stock: +2 (Slightly Bullish) 📈

Rationale:

• Buyers are stepping in near key supports, and price is reclaiming levels like yesterday’s VWAP.
• However, strong resistance around $199–$200 and above could cap the move, creating a range-bound scenario.
• Bullish bias may mean that the stock price is just retracing up where sellers may find an attractive entry, so this analysis and bias can shed short-term, not long-term guidance. Traders and investors should watch and monitor how price may react at the next price levels mentioned, for example, does the stock rise all the way to a new high but they gets rejected close to $203.15. Or does it not even confidentally conquer th $200 round number. All these junctions are spots to collect hints.

Trading Scenarios for GOOG 📉📈

1. Bullish Scenario:

   • Sustained price action above $198.98 and a breakout above $200.00 could target $203.15 and beyond.

2. Bearish Scenario:

   • Price rejection at $200.00–$203.15 creates opportunities for shorts, with downside targets at $198.00, $196.90, and $191.26.

3. Key Fakeout Zone:

   • Watch for a liquidity hunt above $203.15 before a reversal back toward $200.00 or lower.

Key Takeaways for Google Traders 🚦

• $198.98–$200.00 is a key junction for both bulls and bears—watch price reactions closely.
• Sellers could reappear near $203.15, creating short opportunities.
• Buyers need to hold above $196.90 to sustain the bullish case.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage risk effectively. 📊 Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -19

Ouch. That’s the biggest plunge in the order book balance since November 2020. Adding to that, the manufacturing output volume for the past three months also experienced its sharpest decline since August 2020. And for the coming three months, output expectations were the weakest since May 2020. It’s not a good sign as the economic slowdown begins to take a toll on the UK manufacturing sector.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The fundamentals in the crude
oil market haven’t changed much. The price action remains confined in a range
between the 72.00 resistance and the 67.00 support as the market continues to
weigh the future scenarios.

On one hand, we have the
Trump’s victory which might be seen as bearish for fear of the tariffs and a
slowdown in global growth as other countries could retaliate. You can throw
there also a potential increase in supply and the geopolitical risk premium
easing with the Trump’s administration.

On the other hand, we might
have an increase in global growth expectations due to the global central bank
easing, the Trump’s pro-growth policies and more recently the Chinese officials
promising much more on the monetary and fiscal policy side.

Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil continues to trade in a range between the resistance around the 72.00 handle and the
support around the 67.00 handle. The buyers will want to see the price breaking
higher to increase the bullish bets into the 78.00 handle next, while the
sellers will look for a break lower to extend the drop into the 63.00 price
area.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that price action inside the range has been a nightmare. It’s been all over
the place not giving any clear technical level where to lean on. The best
strategy here is to just sit on one’s hands and wait for a breakout or a strong
catalyst.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support zone around the 69.20 level where the price
got rejected from several times in the past weeks. This might add as kind of a barometer
for the short-term sentiment with the price staying above the zone being more
bullish and below being more bearish. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today, we have the FOMC Policy Decision. Tomorrow, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Current Overview

Tesla (TSLA) stock is showing retracement strength in pre-market after initial sell-side pressure, with price approaching today’s VWAP at $468.74. While price is attempting to recover, the overall bias remains cautious as sellers dominated early sessions. Traders must closely watch Tesla’s reaction to key resistance and support levels to determine the next move.

🔑 Key Price Levels to Watch

1. Support Zones:
   • 464.18: Immediate support where buyers have stepped in.
   • 459.64: Next lower support, where price may test bullish resolve.
   • 446.82: A major naked level and a potential target for shorts.

2. Intraday Resistance:

   • 468.74: Today’s VWAP—a critical level to watch for bullish continuation.
   • 474.00: Today’s Point of Control (POC)—a key area where price may stabilize or face resistance.

3. Extended Resistance Levels:

   • 479.86: Yesterday’s POC—a likely magnet if buyers regain control.
   • 481.50: Yesterday’s VAH—another major upside target for bulls.
   • 484.50: A second VWAP deviation from yesterday, a prime fakeout zone for liquidity hunts.

Volumetric Stats Summary 📊

Early volumetric stats reveal strong sell-side activity in the first sessions, but recent bars show buyer absorption and temporary bullish momentum near support levels. Traders should watch for:

• Sustained buying strength above VWAP at $468.74 to confirm the bullish case.
• Rejection at resistance zones like 474.00 or 479.86, which could trigger another leg down.

These stats matter because they reveal where buyers and sellers are active, helping traders identify potential reversals, continuations, and liquidity traps.

AI Directional Bias Score: -1 (Neutral to Slightly Bearish)

Why?

• Sellers controlled earlier price action, but buyers have shown signs of stepping in near support.
• For the bearish bias to hold, price must reject VWAP and stall near 474.00 or 479.86.

Trading Scenarios for TSLA

1. Bullish Scenario:

   • Price sustains above 468.74 VWAP and clears resistance at 474.00.
   • Targets: 479.86 and 481.50 for bullish continuation.

2. Bearish Scenario:

   • Price rejects 468.74 or fails at 474.00, signaling renewed seller strength.
   • Targets: 464.18, followed by 459.64 and 446.82 for a deeper test.

3. Fakeout Alert:

   • A rally toward 484.50 could attract liquidity and reverse quickly, creating a short-term selling opportunity.

Key Takeaways for Tesla Traders 🚦

• VWAP at $468.74 is the immediate level to watch for bullish or bearish confirmation.
• Resistance at 474.00 and 479.86 offers opportunities for both short and long positions.
• If sellers regain control, watch for downside targets near 446.82 as a key area for long setups.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage your risk effectively. 📊

Will Tesla sustain this retracement or reverse back down? Visit ForexLive.com, keep an eye on these key levels and stay ahead of the market! 🚀

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.