Exxon Mobil Corp’s Upstream President Liam Mallon said at a conference in London that the Trump’s „drill, baby, drill“ will be unlikely under Trump because „the vast majority, if not everybody, is primarily focused on the economics of what they are doing“.

The US is pumping more than 13 million barrels of crude a day, exceeding
every other nation and up almost 45% in the past decade.

Click here to read the article.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Is Intel Stock a Buy or Sell? Here’s My Strategic Orientation for 2024 🎯

Hi, Itai Levitan here! 👋 If you’re looking at Intel stock (INTC) and wondering whether it’s time to buy the dip or sell the rally, here’s a flexible framework to consider. The market has its own rhythm, so this is an orientation you can adapt as you see fit. Let’s dive in!

Dip Buying: A Strategy to Watch for Potential Opportunities 🛒

When the price dips into areas I consider attractive, it may offer a great opportunity to scale into a position. Here’s one possible approach:

💡 Buy Zones:

• Level 1: 50 shares @ $18.95 (Cost: $948; 14.29% of budget)
• Level 2: 100 shares @ $18.29 (Cost: $1,829; 28.57% of budget)
• Level 3: 200 shares @ $17.57 (Cost: $3,514; 57.14% of budget)

Result? Weighted average entry price of $17.97.

🎯 Plan of Action:

• Stop Loss: $17.43 (-3% below entry).
• Take Profit: $21.21 (+18% above entry).
• Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 6:1 — a solid balance. 💪

✨ Flexibility Built In:

• If only two out of three orders are filled and price starts reversing up with an unrealized profit, you could take partial profits early instead of waiting for the full target.
• You don’t have to stick rigidly to the plan — adaptability is key!

Example Math:

• Full Position: 350 shares.
  • Total Entry Cost: $6,291.
  • If Take Profit Hits: Price reaches $21.21, resulting in a gain of $3.24 per share and a total hypothetical profit of $1,321. 🤑
  • If Stop Loss is Hit: Price drops to $17.43, resulting in a loss of $0.54 per share and a total hypothetical loss of $189.

Short Selling: An Opportunity to Watch for Higher Prices 🕵️‍♂️

If Intel’s price rises into key resistance zones, it might create shorting opportunities. Here’s a framework for scaling into a short position:

💡 Sell Zones:

• Level 1: 50 shares @ $29.08 (Cost: $1,454; 14.29% of budget)
• Level 2: 100 shares @ $30.16 (Cost: $3,016; 28.57% of budget)
• Level 3: 200 shares @ $31.08 (Cost: $6,216; 57.14% of budget)

Result? Weighted average entry price of $30.53.

🎯 Plan of Action:

• Stop Loss: $31.45 (+3% above entry).
• Take Profit: $25.04 (-18% below entry).
• Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Another 6:1.

✨ Flexibility Built In:

• Just as an exampe… Say price reaches the sell zone but fails to hit all three levels, and then starts declining, you could trail your stop loss — for example, moving it to breakeven. Meaning, you can decide to take partial profit along the way and/or move your stops (don’t do that too early cause you can get stoppd out).
• Waiting a few months for price to reach these zones? That’s okay too. Be patient and let the market come to you. Remember, we are looking here at prices that are quite far fom the current price, and we have a reason to believe others wll act in the zones identified, so patience is a must. It goes without saying that no one is promising that price will get to these zones, not to mention reverse there in your favor. There are mno promises here, only opinions of attractive reversal zone potential, with a detailed plan including a solid stop.

Example Math:

• Full Position: 350 shares.
  • Total Entry Cost: $10,686.
  • If Take Profit Hits: Price drops to $25.04, resulting in a gain of $5.50 per share and a total hypothetical profit of $1,923. 🤑
  • If Stop Loss is Hit: Price rises to $31.45, resulting in a loss of $0.92 per share and a total hypothetical loss of $321.

Why This Orientation Works 🧠

Here’s why this plan makes sense:

• Key Levels: Based on historical VWAPs, POCs, and value areas, where big players are likely to step in.
• Scaling in and out: Spreading your orders across levels gives you a smoother entry or exit.
• Adaptability: This isn’t a rigid plan — you can:
  • Adjust the position size.
  • Take profits early if the market behaves differently.
  • Trail your stop to lock in gains as price moves in your favor.

Key Takeaway ✨

This is an orientation, not a rigid roadmap. Markets are dynamic, and so should be your approach. Whether you’re looking to buy the dip or sell the rally:

• Be disciplined with your entries and exits.
• Keep your reward-to-risk ratio in mind.
• Stay flexible and ready to adjust based on how the market unfolds. Always have a stop for your swing trades or even buy and holds.
• This is only an opinion. Do your work research on INTC stock and visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Axios reports that the AI czar will be charged with focusing both public and private resources to keep America in the AI forefront.

• The federal government has a tremendous need for AI technology, and the new czar would likely work with agency chief AI officers (which were established in President Biden’s AI executive order, and could survive Trump).
• The person also would work with DOGE ( Department of Government Efficiency) to use AI to root out waste, fraud and abuse, including entitlement fraud.
• The office would spur the massive private investment needed to expand the energy supply to keep the U.S. on the cutting edge.

Click here to read the Axios report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Inflation expected to hit ECB’s target in 2025.
• Eurozone economy will grow slowly and recover gradually.
• Salary and services inflation remain persistent, maintain risk of inflation moderating more slowly than expected.
• If fresh statistics and forecast support current inflation and growth view, ECB should continue to cut rates.
• Downward direction of rates is clear and the pace depends on the data.
• We can cut in December if data and forecasts back it.
• My assessment is that we are moving towards neutral rates from restrictive rates.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The US Dollar remains the
strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple
of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining
largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025.

During the Asian session,
we saw the greenback getting a bid as Trump said that he will charge Mexico and
Canada a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US and will charge China an
additional 10% tariff.

On the CAD side, we had the
Canadian CPI last week and the data came in
stronger than expected. This decreased the chances of a 50 bps cut in December
with the market now seeing an 80% chance of a 25 bps cut and a total of 87 bps
of easing by the end of 2025 compared to 98 bps before the CPI report.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD spiked into the 1.4177 level overnight on the tariffs news. The
pair continues to trade above the 2-year highs with the buyers maintaining
control. The sellers will need to see the price falling back below the 1.3950
level to switch the bias to bearish and start targeting new lows.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support
around the 1.41 handle. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in to
position for further upside. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a
break lower to target a drop back into the 1.40 handle.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s
nothing more we can add as we are now trading right at the support zone where
the buyers will look for a bounce, while the sellers will target a break. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have the US Consumer Confidence report and the FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Tomorrow, we get the US PCE report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On
Friday, we conclude with the Canadian GDP.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.