Last week, despite the
higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar
couldn’t extend the gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at
three rate cuts by the end of 2025.

This might be a signal that
the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could open the door for some
pullbacks and general US Dollar weakness.

On the CAD side, we have
the Canadian CPI tomorrow. The market is pricing a 33% chance of another 50 bps
cut at the upcoming meeting. Higher than expected readings might increase the
chances of a 25 bps move and provide a relief rally.

Conversely, lower than
expected figures will likely increase the probabilities for a 50 bps cut and
weigh a bit on the CAD although it might not trigger too much weakness at this
point.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD eventually broke through the 2-year high and extended the rally
into the 1.41 handle. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have
a better risk to reward setup around the previous resistance
now turned support at roughly 1.40 where we can also find a trendline
for confluence.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
invalidate the breakout and position for a drop back into the 1.36 handle.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. If we were to get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the
trendline to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look
for a break lower to target the major trendline.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we
have yet another upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this
timeframe. The buyers will keep on leaning on it to target new highs, while the
sellers will look for a break lower to target the next trendlines. The red
lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

This
week is pretty empty on the data front with the most important releases
scheduled for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US Flash PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Believes in cautious and prudent approach, policy is working as it is
• It would be „going a bit far“ to say that a rate cut in December is „in the bag“
• We are going meeting by meeting
• Let’s see what the data tells us but reasonable to assume we are on a downwards trajectory on rates

Again, it reinforces the notion that it is safe to think that the ECB will cut rates again in December, barring any major surprises. As for the magnitude of the move, they might be leaning more towards a 25 bps one for the time being at least.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Services inflation is still slightly higher than I would prefer
• Prudence and caution have a premium to them, we should continue in that manner
• I don’t feel at the moment the need to rush
• We need to think like a long-distance runner

No rush but the signs are pointing to at least a 25 bps move in December again. That being said, traders are still pricing in a ~26% probability of a 50 bps move for the time being as well.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Last week, despite the
higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar
couldn’t extend the gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at
three rate cuts by the end of 2025.

This might be a signal that
the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could open the door for some
pullbacks and general US Dollar weakness.

USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF couldn’t extend above the 0.89 handle. From a risk management perspective,
the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the major upward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new
lows.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we had another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on
this timeframe. The price recently broke below it which could be a signal of a
bigger pullback to follow.

The sellers are likely to
pile in here to target a drop into the 0.88 handle. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price rising back above the trendline to position
for a rally into new highs.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback.
The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to push into new lows, while the
buyers will look for a break higher to position for new highs. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

This
week is pretty empty on the data front with the most important releases
scheduled for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US Flash PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Gold is up over 1% on the day and starting to close back in on testing the $2,600 mark once more. The bounce here comes as the precious metal looks to snap a run of six straight days of losses, after having ran into a test of its 100-day moving average (red line) last week:

For some context, it was the first time since February that the precious metal even touched the key level. And even when you consider the ~9% drop from the highs at the end of October, it’s but a mild correction to the unrelenting gold rally so far this year.

Nonetheless, a major technical level is still a major technical level regardless. This was highlighted in my post last week here.

And it looks like gold buyers are surviving that test in not letting the pullback run much deeper than it could on a break of the key level above.

The bounce so far is decent but not exactly all too convincing though. It is still running into some potential resistance in the form of the 23.6 Fib retracement level of the swing lower this month, seen at $2,596.63. Adding to that, offers layered around $2,600 adds to some short-term resistance around the current region.

So, buyers will still have some work to do. But the case of an early sign of a bottom is at least starting to build.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.