<p>The always awesome Newsquawk US Market Open: NQ outperforms given NVIDIA strength, Gilts lag post-Mann</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://newsquawk.com/daily/article/?id=2874-us-market-open-nq-outperforms-given-nvidia-strength-gilts-lag-postmann&utm_source=newsquawk&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=us-open“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Note</a></p><p>Key Points</p><p>European bourses are firmer on the session with a hefty earnings docket dictating action after an uninspiring APAC handover.</p><p>Stateside, futures are broadly-speaking in-fitting with Europe though the NQ +0.7% outperforms given tailwinds from NVIDIA’s after-market update.</p><p>The DXY continues to grind higher at the top-end of 104.30-65 parameters to the mixed fortune of peers; Antipodeans outperform and GBP lags despite Mann.</p><p>Gilts are the incremental laggards post-Mann and down to a new 101.26 session low with the Sonia strip similarly dented, EGBs & USTs in-fitting though incrementally more contained.</p><p>BoE’s Mann says she does not think UK monetary policy is in a restrictive stance particularly.WTI and Brent April futures are consolidating following another hefty session of losses, Henry Hub firmer, spot gold contained but erring lower.</p><p>Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP/PCE Q4 (2nd Estimate), IJC Japanese CPI, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic & Daly, BoE’s Cunliffe, Supply from US, Earning from Moderna.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price has finally broken out of the range between the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 33540 and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 34477. The market is
repricing a higher terminal rate and what may come next is a recession. </p><p>This is bad for the stock market
as we can see from the bearish price action. Once the support at 32684 gives
way, the sellers will have plenty of room to the downside. That level will also
be the last line of defence for the buyers.</p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see the recent breakout of the range and the price bouncing from the previous
low at 33030. We may see a pullback towards the broken support at 33538 that
now may turn into a resistance. There will be also the red long period <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
average</a> acting as resistance. If the buyers manage to get into the range again,
then we may see another run towards the 34477 resistance. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the resistance at 33538 has also the 61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. The downward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> should act as the first
resistance for the sellers and the 38.2% Fibonacci level may be the spot where
we will see them piling in. </p><p>The 33538 resistance will be the
last line of defence for the sellers, while a break below the recent low at
33030 should give another flush towards the 32684 level. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Turkey’s central bank cut its key interest rate on Thursday to the lowest in three years, in an extension of the country’s emergency response to its worst earthquake disaster in decades.</p><p>Turkish Weekly Repo Rate Actual 8.5% (Forecast 8%, Previous 9.00%)</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-23/turkey-delivers-smaller-rate-cut-than-forecast-after-earthquakes?utm_source=twitter&utm_content=middleeast&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&sref=1STrqapn“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>BBG</a></p><p>After a two-month pause, the Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Sahap Kavcioglu lowered its one-week repo rate to 8.5% from 9%. Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a full percentage-point reduction</p><p>What Bloomberg Economics Says… “The rate cut will likely increase the pressure on the lira, which will curtail the expected deceleration in price gains. As for inflation, the central bank may be relying on strong base-effects to deliver a mechanical deceleration.”</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

<p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-to-shake-up-financial-system-as-xi-jinping-installs-key-associates-1b962796?mod=latest_headlines“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>WSJ Report – </a></p><p>China to Shake Up Financial System as Xi Jinping Installs Key Associates</p><p>_____</p><p>Chinese leader Xi Jinping is preparing to shake up the leadership of the country’s financial system, installing key associates to run the central bank and reviving a Communist Party body to tighten political control over financial affairs, according to people familiar with the discussions.</p><p>The new PBOC leadership will need to lead the central bank through a turbulent time in China, helping the economy get back on its feet following the scrapping of most zero-Covid restrictions and dealing with the worst property downturn on record to safeguard financial stability.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the buyers couldn’t break the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 4175 as the blockbuster <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-nonfarm-payroll-517k-vs-185k-estimate-unemployment-rate-34-vs-35-estimate-20230203/“>NFP
report</a> changed the market expectations of future interest rates. </p><p>The minor upward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> that was acting as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> for the rally was breached as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bullard-at-this-point-sees-policy-rate-in-the-range-of-525-550-as-appropriate-20230216/“>Fed’s
Bullard</a> mentioned that he would be open for a 50 bps hike at the March meeting
and that he sees a higher terminal rate as more appropriate. </p><p>The market will be looking at <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>incoming economic data</a>, especially the next NFP and CPI
reports to decide where to go next. We are in a “good news is bad news”
environment now for the stock market so watch out for more selloffs in case of
hot data. </p><p>In the 4
hour chart below, we can see that the market is founding some short term bottom
as depicted by the multiple wicks around the 4000 level. We may see a pullback
towards the 4060 level where we can also find the 38.2% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. </p><p>That’s
going to be a strong level where we should see sellers piling in. With a break
higher though, we may see the buyers extend the rally towards the broken
trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 4110-4120. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the price broke out of the downward trendline. This may be a signal of
a change in momentum as we can also see from the hourly <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> crossing to the upside. </p><p>Once the buyers manage to break
the 4025 level we should see the pullback towards the previously mentioned 4060
resistance. In case this is just a fakeout, sellers will start to pile in again
on the break of the low at 3984. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.