• Will stabilise market expectation
• Will enhance stability of credit growth
• To utilise a variety of monetary policy tools, cut interest rates and RRR when appropriate
• Will promote internationalisation of yuan in a prudent manner

These are all just some token remarks. The main development in the Chinese yuan was the story from last week here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Key Observations

From the 240-Minute Chart:

1. VWAP Alignment and Price Position:
   • Today’s VWAP at 2672.7 aligns very closely with the previously naked VAL from December 9th (2672.4), reinforcing its role as strong support.
   • The current price at 2678.3 remains above VWAP, signaling slight bullish pressure.

2. Delta Analysis:

   • The most recent 240-minute bar (last green bar):
     • Shows a positive Delta Change (+1415) indicating strong buyer aggression.
     • Delta SL remains slightly negative (-1168), hinting at mixed follow-through near the high of the bar.
   • The upward delta momentum alongside price closing near its high shows cautious buyer control.

3. Volume and HVN:

   • The bar’s High Volume Node (HVN) sits well above VWAP, confirming buying acceptance above support.

4. Key Resistance Levels:

   • Price stalled around 2679.5, a local high.
   • Next magnets: 2690 (naked POC + Friday’s VWAP) and confluence near 2695-2697.

From the 30-Minute Chart:

1. Sideways Consolidation with Bullish Bias:

   • Price remains range-bound between 2670.5 (support) and 2679.5 (resistance).
   • However, VWAP slopes upward, suggesting mild bullish pressure.

2. Delta Progression (Last Bars):

   • 10:30-11:00: Positive Delta Change (+190) and price closing near its high.
   • 12:00-12:30: Continued small upward delta momentum (+262 cumulative delta).

3. Volume Confirmation:

   • Increasing buy volume shows that buyers are defending support near 2672.7.

4. Key Levels:

   • Immediate support at 2672.7 (VWAP) and 2670.5.
   • Resistance remains firm at 2679.5; clearing this could open the door to 2690 and 2695.

Summary:

• Support Zone: 2672.7 (VWAP) and 2672.4 (December 9 VAL).
• Resistance Levels: 2679.5, 2690, and 2695-2697 (confluence zone).
• Delta and Price: Positive delta and rising price suggest mild bullish continuation, but resistance at 2679.5 must be broken.

Outlook: A slight bullish bias, with a moderate likelihood of testing 2690 next if support holds at 2667, OTHERWISE BEARS GAIN CONTROL

How This AI Gold Prediction Works

The AI prediction leverages advanced order flow analysis and key price levels to assess the likely direction of gold futures. By analyzing volumetric charts (like the 240-minute and 30-minute charts provided) and incorporating Delta stats, volume, and price action around critical levels, the AI identifies areas of support, resistance, and potential reversals.

1. Volumetric Data:

   • Breaks down buying and selling activity within each bar (Buy Volume, Sell Volume, Delta SL, Delta Change).
   • Highlights buyer or seller dominance to determine momentum shifts.

2. Key Levels Integration:

   • Levels such as VWAP, Value Area High (VAH), Value Area Low (VAL), and Naked Points of Control (POC) act as magnets or barriers for price.
   • These levels, combined with delta progression, signal areas where traders may expect price reactions (e.g., reversals, consolidations, or breakouts).

3. Multi-Timeframe Analysis:

   • The 240-minute chart provides a broad view, showing dominant trends and larger support/resistance areas.
   • The 30-minute chart zooms into shorter-term movements, helping traders time entries and exits.

4. AI Scoring System:

   • The scoring ranges from -10 to +10 to quantify the strength and direction of the market bias.
   • The AI combines delta progression, price positioning, and confluence of levels to provide actionable predictions.

Why Traders and Investors Should Consider This

1. Data-Driven Insights:

   • The AI provides precise, unbiased predictions using objective data rather than subjective opinions.
   • Investors can make informed decisions backed by real-time volumetric analysis.

2. Identifying High-Probability Areas:

   • By focusing on key levels like VWAP, naked POCs, and areas of confluence (e.g., 2695-2697), traders can identify where price is most likely to react.
   • These levels serve as entry, exit, or stop-loss zones to maximize trade efficiency.

3. Anticipating Market Behavior:

   • Delta and volume analysis reveal whether buyers or sellers are in control.
   • For example, rising delta and price near support (like 2672.7) signal buyer strength, suggesting upward continuation.

4. Multi-Timeframe Confirmation:

   • Combining longer-term (240-minute) trends with shorter-term (30-minute) patterns allows traders to align strategies for both swing and intraday trades.

5. Risk Management:

   • Key levels and volumetric stats help traders anticipate fakeouts and avoid being trapped by market makers, improving risk-reward ratios.

Conclusion

The AI gold prediction integrates sophisticated order flow data, critical levels, and a refined scoring system to provide actionable insights for traders and investors. By leveraging this method, traders can anticipate price behavior more accurately, identify high-probability opportunities, and make decisions with greater confidence.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• Fed: 24 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 75 bps

• ECB 2025: 111 bps (86% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

• BoE: 4 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 73 bps

• BoC 2025: 56 bps (63% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

• RBA 2025: 72 bps (54% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

• RBNZ 2025: 105 bps (75% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

• SNB 2025: 50 bps (82% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 5 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 44 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD did nudge a little higher to 1.2670 after the UK PMI data here earlier. But the pair is now back down to 1.2645, up just 0.2% on the day. Elsewhere, USD/CHF is down 0.2% to 0.8910 but the euro, yen, loonie, and aussie are all flat against the dollar currently. Even after the French and German PMI data, the euro isn’t doing all too much:

As mentioned earlier here, the ECB rate move in January is largely priced in already and there wasn’t much to move the needle from the PMI data releases today. Adding to that, the key near-term levels seen above and large option expiries are continuing to anchor the pair closer to 1.0500 for the time being.

Besides that, there isn’t much for major currencies to work with as we get the new week underway.

European indices are lower after a more sluggish showing last week, with US indices also having been kept in check. That said, US futures are higher today but again we’ll have to take stock of the mood again later when Wall Street enters the fray. It’s always a different ball game when US markets open and with eyes on the PMI data later.

In the bond market, 10-year Treasury yields are down slightly by 2 bps to 4.38% but this doesn’t do much to take away from the run higher in yields last week. 10-year yields moved up from 4.15% to end the week at 4.40%. So, yeah.

The main events this week are the key central bank meetings featuring the Fed, BOJ, and BOE. As such, we’re caught in a bit of a waiting game in starting off the final real trading week of the year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USD continues to
consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it
extended into new highs. The US inflation data last week was once again a
disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall
benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase.

Nonetheless, the Treasury
yields continue to climb and are now back around the post-US election highs.
There’s some understandable uneasiness in the bond market given the hot US data
and the Fed continuing to cut into an accelerating economy.

On the CHF side, the SNB
cut interest rates by 50 bps bringing the policy rate to 0.50% and dropped the
language signalling further cuts in the coming quarters.

This suggests that the
central bank will likely slow the pace of easing which is something that the
market was already expecting with two 25 bps cuts priced in for next year.

SNB’s Chairman Schlegel was
a bit more cautious on the negative rates policy but didn’t exclude it from
their strategy if it’s needed to stop the appreciation in the Swiss Franc.

USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF reversed the fall and rallied back above the major trendline leaving behind a fakeout. The
buyers are back in control and will keep on targeting the 0.9050 level. The sellers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to
start targeting new lows.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it with a
defined risk below it to position for new highs, while the sellers will look
for a break lower to pile in for a chance to break below the major trendline
and extend into new lows.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor counter-trendline defining the current pullback. More
aggressive buyers will likely pile in on a break to target new highs, while the
sellers should lean on it to keep targeting the break below the major
trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today, we have the US Flash PMIs. Tomorrow, we get the US Retail Sales data.
On Wednesday, we have the FOMC Policy Decision. On Thursday, we get the latest
US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE
data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.