• Prior +7.5%
• New yuan loans ¥0.6 trillion
• Prior ¥0.5 trillion

The year-to-date total for new yuan loans is now seen at ¥17.1 trillion and barring an unprecedented surge in December, it will fall far short of the 2023 record of roughly ¥22.8 trillion. For some context, this figure was ¥21.3 trillion back in 2022. It’s not too bright a side as new bank lending slows down in a crucial time when Beijing is trying to revive domestic demand conditions.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• The pace and number of further rate cuts will depend on inflation developments

I want to say that his comments are a bit incomplete for now as the ECB has clearly put more emphasis on the economy in their last two rate cuts, as opposed to the inflation story. But they can be happy that the disinflation trajectory is still largely intact I guess, even with a couple of bumps seen.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The greenback is sitting up against the yen and pound but holding lower against the euro so far today. This comes as stocks are looking to bounce back with US futures up 0.3% but Treasury yields are lightly changed though. So, there is definitely some mixed sentiment in there.

Looking at USD/JPY first, the pair is up 0.5% to 153.40 levels now and I’d argue that this is more of an extension higher after the technical break earlier this week. The pair pushed above its 200-day moving average (blue line), opening up scope for further gains as buyers leaned on the key level during the week:

As for EUR/USD, the pair had just moved up to a high of 1.0495 in the past hour without any meaningful headlines to stoke the flames. But I want to point out the extremely large option expiries at 1.0500 as being a potential pull factor. So, there’s that.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD is down 0.2% to 1.2640 but that owes much to the softer UK October monthly GDP data from earlier. It reinforces the narrative that more sluggish economic conditions will eventually weigh on the BOE outlook and quicken the pace of rate cuts going into next year.

Besides that, the dollar is mostly little changed against the rest of the major currencies.

In broader markets, stocks are up but I want to say that Wall Street might have other ideas after the setback yesterday. The only time US stocks produced gains this week was after the critical US CPI report on Wednesday. So, there is a hint of caution there to the early gains we’re seeing thus far today.

Elsewhere, gold is down 0.6% to $2,665 as the rejection of the 25 November high of $2,721 looks to keep the December run higher in check for the time being.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Declining services inflation strengthened the confidence in return to target.
• ECB will decide monetary policy meeting by meeting on the basis of current situation, core inflation and policy transmission.
• Inflation is steadily approaching the target.
• Services inflation remains high, but in recent months it has been steadily moderating which was partly due to lower wage growth.
• Monthly data continue to point to weak growth both due to poor conditions in manufacturing and slowdown in services sector growth.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.