Yesterday
Bitcoin jumped following the news that Greyscale won the lawsuit against
the SEC as the D.C. court ruled that the SEC improperly rejected the Bitcoin
spot ETF. This was seen as a positive news as Greyscale will have to reapply
for a spot ETF but that an ETF is actually coming. Looking at the bigger
picture though, we have some bearish news all around as CryptoQuant reported
that Bitcoin trading volume is at its lowest in more than four years and on the
macro side we have recessionary fears caused by weakening data as yesterday’s
Job Openings and Consumer Confidence missed expectations by a big margin
possibly pointing to a deterioration in the labour market. On top of that, the
central banks are expected to keep monetary conditions tight even if we start
to see more weakness creeping in, which should ultimately make the economic
conditions and the risk sentiment worse.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin bottomed
out on the key 25231 support and
after almost two weeks of consolidation it spiked up yesterday following the
news of Greyscale winning the lawsuit again the SEC. The price found resistance
near the previous support now turned resistance where we
have also the confluence with the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
This is where the sellers should step back in with a defined risk above the
level and target another fall into the support and eventually a break lower.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that now the buyers
will have a strong support zone around the previous swing high at 26800 where
we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire leg higher
and the red 21 moving average. This is
where we can expect the buyers to pile in with a defined risk below the zone
and target another extension to the upside.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price is currently pulling back and from a risk management perspective, both
buyers and sellers should refrain from entering the market here as it’s
basically a no man’s land. The key levels to watch, in fact, are the resistance
at 28300 and the support at 26800.
Upcoming Events
This week is an important one given that we will see
many key labour market data for the US, including the NFP, before the next FOMC
meeting. Weak data is likely to cause recessionary fears across the markets and
weigh on Bitcoin, while strong readings should keep the Fed on the hawkish side
and put a lid on the cryptocurrency’s upside. Today, we have the US ADP report,
and after yesterday’s big miss in the US Job Openings, a weak report is likely
to increase recessionary fears. Moving on to tomorrow, we will see the US
Jobless Claims and the US PCE data. Finally, we conclude the week with the US
NFP and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.