Bitcoin
remains rangebound on a key support level as the outlook is turning more and
more bearish given the headwinds from global growth and tight monetary
policies. All the positive news eventually gets faded, which is another sign
that the big picture trend remains bearish. Amid this high uncertainty, the
technicals can help with risk management and short-term directional plays.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin
recently sold off into the key 25231 support where it
bounced soon after. The price then rallied into the red 21 moving average where it
found strong sellers. The bias remains bearish as the price keeps on printing
lower lows into the support, which should eventually lead to a breakout. If the
price breaks above the 21 moving average though, we might see a rally back into
the 28400 resistance, where the sellers will be waiting to sell at even better
prices.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we are
currently trading withing a range between the 25231 support and the 26600
resistance. The best strategy in such instances is to just sit tight and wait
for a breakout, but one can also “play the range” by buying at support and
selling at resistance. A break to the upside should take Bitcoin into the 28400
resistance, while a break to the downside should lead to a selloff into the
21509 support.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a level of interest at 26024. In the short term, we might see a rally into
the 26600 resistance in the price breaks above it, but the sellers are likely
to pile in here with a defined risk above it to target the 25231 support.
Upcoming Events
This week we have many important events. Today is the US
CPI Day, which is expected to show an increase in headline inflation due to
higher energy prices but further disinflation in the core measure. Tomorrow, we
will see the latest US Jobless Claims, PPI and Retail Sales data. Finally on
Friday, we get the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Strong
data is likely to tip the market expectations on the more hawkish side and
support the USD, ultimately weighing on Bitcoin. On the other hand, weak
readings should have the opposite effect, unless they are very bad, in which
case the recession fears are likely to send Bitcoin lower anyway.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.