The pair is moving up today as the dollar is seeing a bit of a pullback to last week’s advance. We are seeing price now nudge back just above 1.2500 but does it really mean anything for cable at this point?
For now, the technical argument is indicating that it would take more than a push above the figure level (at least this one) to push the agenda on the part of buyers. The weekly chart shows that:
The pair did run up against the highs from May last year at 1.2660-66 but ultimately failed to breach that on last week’s close. In fact, that sharp rejection was the first weekly drop in cable in nine weeks. But it also comes just under a key technical point in the form of the 100-week moving average (red line), now seen at 1.2693.
As such, even with a push back above 1.2500, it hardly means anything for any upside move in cable unless buyers can look to take out the levels pointed out above.
And even before that, there is the near-term resistance points from the 100 and 200-hour moving averages, now seen at 1.2558 and 1.2575 respectively.
As for any downside push, the 10 and 17 April lows at 1.2343-53 is going to be a key supportive region to watch before any potential breakdown towards the 100-day moving average at 1.2250 currently. Those will be key targets to watch on any further selling during the week.
In terms of the fundamental picture, a lot of the positive vibes has already been priced in for sterling it would seem. The BOE did as expected and didn’t really offer any stronger conviction to battle inflation down the road. Bailey & co. even kept the door open to pausing and with markets already pricing in a peak of 4.85% in the bank rate, there’s not much room left for any further hawkish implications.
The 5.00% mark is of course the big one to watch but that will depend on the BOE’s conviction next month and also incoming UK economic data in the weeks ahead. But with market pricing already being nearly there, it’s hard to imagine more upside to come for the pound from this factor alone.
As for the Fed side of the equation, Fed funds futures are still pointing to around three rate cuts by year-end and all else being equal, that pricing can only turn to be more hawkish at this point. Markets are convinced the Fed will pause but policymakers have insisted that they want to keep rates higher for longer.
As such, the current outlook does suggest that the risks to the rates pricing are skewed towards the possibility that traders could be wrong. That is unless something else breaks in the US economy and the Fed is forced to „save the day“ by kicking off the rate cut cycle earlier than they intend to.
If you consider the above elements, the path of least resistance may be lower for GBP/USD especially if the technical considerations are also favouring the dollar for now. But even so, the amount of weakness in price may be largely contained as markets are still trying to sort out their feet in dealing with all of the other narratives above.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.