S&P 500 Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upside 0 (0)

Fundamental
Overview

Last week, we got a
pullback in the S&P 500 as the higher than expected inflation readings and
a less dovish Powell weighed a bit on the market.

Despite the recent events
though, the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by
the end of 2025. This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the
current pricing, and we will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining
rate cuts.

The only bearish reason we
had for the stock market was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally
bearish only when the Fed is tightening policy though not when yields rise on positive
growth expectations.

Right now, the Fed’s
reaction function is that a strong economy would warrant an earlier pause in
the easing cycle and not a tightening. That should still be supportive for the
stock market in the bigger picture considering that Trump’s policies include
tax cuts and deregulation.

If the Fed’s reaction
function changes to a potential tightening, then that will likely trigger a big
correction in the stock market on expected economic slowdown.

For now, the pullbacks look
as something healthy and opportunities to buy the dips.

S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 dropped below the 5918 support level but bounced back a couple of days later
as the dip-buyers took advantage. As long as the price stays above the 5918
level, we can expect the buyers to pile in to position for a rally into a new
all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling
back below the support to target a test of the trendline.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the choppy price action around the 5918 level as the market
continues to wait for catalysts to push into either direction. There’s not much
else we can glean from this timeframe although the 5918 level will likely act
as a barometer for the sentiment.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor support around the 5930 level. If we get a
pullback, the buyers will likely step in around those level with a defined risk
below them to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on
the other hand, will look for a break lower to target a drop into the major trendline.
The red lines define the average daily range for today

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow, we
get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week
with the US PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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Eurozone negotiated wage growth seen accelerating in Q3 0 (0)

That’s a bit problematic for the ECB as pay growth is seen accelerating once again. That is unlikely to put off a December rate cut though as the wages data here hasn’t really translated to any significant reacceleration in consumer prices. So, the hope for policymakers is that wage pressures should fade going into next year. But we’ll see.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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NZDUSD Technical Analysis – The lack of catalysts keeps the market rangebound 0 (0)

Fundamental
Overview

The US Dollar continues to
consolidate despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less
dovish Powell last week. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at
three rate cuts by the end of 2025.

This might be a signal that
the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could lead to some general
US Dollar weakness in the short term.

On the NZD side, the market
is pricing an 80% chance of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting and a total of
142 bps of easing by the end of 2025. Inflation is back in the RBNZ’s target
range, so the central bank can focus on growth now especially with the unemployment
rate continuing to climb.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD bounced from the key support
around the 0.5850 level and rallied into the major trendline
where we got some rejection as the sellers stepped back in. The buyers will
want to see the price breaking above the trendline to increase the bullish bets
into the 0.6050 resistance, while the sellers will look for a break below the
0.5850 support to target the 0.5773 low.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price rejected the swing low level at 0.5912 near the major
trendline as the sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the trendline to
target the break below the 0.5850 support. There’s not much else we can add here
as the buyers will need a break above the trendline to gain more conviction for
further upside.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support zone around the 0.5780 level. This is where we
can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to
position for the break above the major trendline with a better risk to reward setup.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase
the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow,
we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the
week with the US PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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Take on the Prop Trading Challenge with Ultimate Traders 0 (0)

Proprietary (prop) trading as a concept has
experienced a huge surge in popularity over recent years, developing into an
established way of trading for many across the world, while ushering in a new
era in terms of how trades are conducted.

For the many companies now operating within
the sector, prop traders are typically expected to pass a lengthy, multi-level
evaluation process before being deemed appropriate to proceed to the funded
account stage.

This can lead to intense frustration from
some participants, particularly skilled or experienced ones, who end up finding
themselves caught up in a cycle of repetitive evaluations that can negatively
affect both their emotions and outcomes.

Ultimate Traders tackles this problem head on,
with the innovative prop firm removing the need for a second evaluation stage
as part of its ‘Speedy Challenge’ – meaning competent traders can kickstart
their trading journeys without unnecessary delay.

The
speedy way to account funding

Unlike traditional multi-tier structures
offered by various other firms, the Speedy Challenge provides a fast-track
route on the path to a live funded trading account through its unique
single-tier structure.

Designed for experienced, disciplined
traders with rapid results in mind, this challenge saves time and effort,
bypassing the drawbacks of conventional evaluations. It allows individuals to
skip the second step by going directly to a funded account once the challenge
is successfully completed.

It provides traders with up to 1:30 leverage on forex, with tailored leverage
for other assets like commodities, indices, and cryptocurrencies, giving them
greater control over their trading strategies. There is also full transparency
in the pricing structure, with entry fees starting at $79, while VAT is applied
on challengers from the UK or EU.

The Speedy Challenge offers quicker access to
capital, with multiple account sizes ranging from $5,000 to $200,000, allowing
traders to reach the account funding stage and generate profits faster.
However, this accelerated path comes with tighter risk controls, including a 4%
drawdown limit, compared to the 6% cap offered in the company’s ‘Classic
Challenge’.

Unlocking
the Speedy Challenge benefits

With no fixed deadlines, participants who
sign up for the challenge are encouraged to trade on the days when the market
conditions are favourable, meaning there is no time pressure with regards to
generating profit on either the live or evaluation accounts.

Aside from the obvious fast-track benefits
associated with the Speedy Challenge, traders are able to get excellent value
out of their registration fee, which is unmatched by other prop firms. It
represents only a small fraction of the account balance and is refunded once
the first withdrawal is made from their live account.

Another helpful feature for traders is the
access they have to automated trading tools, with Ultimate Traders granting
permission to use Expert Advisors (EAs) so long as they are not used in an
abusive way.

Important day trading techniques such as
scalping and hedging are also permitted, meaning traders can modify their
strategies and manage risk more effectively, particularly during periods of
rapid market fluctuation.

Optional add-ons and fast withdrawals

Challengers have several opportunities to
further tailor their prop trading experience through a series of optional
add-ons, which include removing stop-loss requirements, and enabling news
trading during high-volatility events. They can also opt for a 90/10 profit
split in order to retain more of their earnings.

Once funded, traders are able to benefit from flexible withdrawals, with the
ability to withdraw profits every 14 days, which is significantly better than
the industry-standard 30-day cycle. This added flexibility provides quicker
access to profits, supporting financial freedom and motivating participants to
maintain high levels of performance.

Ultimate
Traders’ trading rules

Once a trader accepts the challenge, they
are expected to meet a defined set of rules before they are entrusted with the
company’s capital in a fully-fledged funded trading account, with the most
important rules outlined below.


Minimum of 3 Trading Days: Traders must
place at least one trade on three separate days, but this rule is removed for
those with a funded Ultimate Traders account.


4% Daily Drawdown Limit: Losses cannot
exceed 4% of the previous day’s recorded equity, including both balance and
floating P&L.


6% Maximum Loss Limit: Total losses must
not exceed 6% of the account size, with the limit trailing until it matches the
initial balance, where it remains fixed.


10% Profit Target: Traders need to reach
a 10% profit target (e.g., $100,000 account must grow to $110,000) with no time
limits imposed.


Weekend Trading / Stop-Loss: All trades
require a stop-loss and must close before the weekend, unless traders pay a 10%
premium to lift these restrictions.

Offering an accelerated path to trading
capital, the Speedy Challenge is well suited to disciplined prop traders who
can manage risk effectively under tighter constraints and are looking to
progress without the usual delays associated with completing multiple
evaluation phases.

Looking to take on the challenge? To find
out how to get started, click here.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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Dollar holds firmer in European morning trade 0 (0)

After a bit of a pause in the last few days, the dollar is starting to flex its muscles once again. The greenback is sitting atop the major currencies bloc, now extending gains across the board on the day. USD/JPY already traded a little higher earlier but now other dollar pairs are catching up. EUR/USD is currently seen down by 0.4% to 1.0556:

The pair did break below its 100-hour moving average (red line) yesterday but it owed to risk-off flows, arguably driven by geopolitical headlines. That reversed course later in the day but now, we’re seeing steady flows to nudge the pair back below the key near-term level again.

Hold below that and sellers will reestablish a more bearish near-term bias in the pair. So, that’s a key technical development to be mindful of.

Elsewhere, USD/JPY is now up 0.7% to 155.80 while AUD/USD is down 0.4% to 0.6510 on the day. The dollar is seen firming here as bond yields are also pushing higher. 10-year Treasury yields are now up over 4 bps on the day to 4.42% on the session.

Are we starting to swing back to the post-election momentum after catching a breather?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The market needs more to push into new lows 0 (0)

Fundamental
Overview

Last week, despite the higher-than-expected
inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar couldn’t extend the
gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by
the end of 2025.

This might be a signal that
the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could open the door for some
pullbacks and general US Dollar weakness.

On the GBP side, tomorrow
we get the UK CPI report. Last time, the UK inflation data missed expectations by a big
margin with services inflation dropping to 4.9% from 5.6% in the prior month.

In the meantime, we’ve got
a soft labour market report and a lower than expected GDP print. The market is currently
pricing just a 22% probability of another 25 bps cut in December, but that will
likely increase if we were to get another miss in the CPI data.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD is consolidating near the major upward trendline. This is where we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a
rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the pair looks to be bottoming out here and we might see a pullback
into the major downward trendline. The buyers will want to see the price
breaking above the 1.27 handle to gain more conviction, while the sellers will
likely lean on that level to target the break below the upward trendline.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price action has been mostly rangebound since last Thursday as
that’s when the bullish momentum in the US Dollar stalled. There’s not much we
can add here as the buyers will look for a break above the 1.27 handle, while
the sellers will target a break below the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we have the UK CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the UK and US Flash
PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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BoE’s Lombardelli: I see risks to inflation on both sides 0 (0)

  • I see risks to inflation on both sides.
  • We have seen a fall in services inflation and wage settlements.
  • Minimum wage comes up as pressure for businesses more than any other pressure.
  • I am more concerned about upside risks to inflation as costs are higher if inflation gets entrenched.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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BoE’s Mann: Forward-looking indicators raising the risk of inflation persistence 0 (0)

  • Forward-looking price and wage indicators have been flat and above target for four months, raising the risk of inflation persistence.
  • Financial markets‘ inflation expectations suggest the BoE will not get to a sustainable 2% inflation in the forecast horizon.
  • Risks to inflation are almost all upside.
  • I do not use gradual language on rate cuts.
  • I prefer activist strategy on monetary policy.
  • It’s important to keep rates on hold, and not pursue a gradualist strategy on rate cuts.
  • The current stance on monetary policy is not particularly restrictive.
  • Gradualism causes inflation persistence to drag on for longer.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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BoE’s Taylor: Gradual cuts implies 100 bps of easing over the next year 0 (0)

  • It’s ok to continue with a gradual pace of rate cuts.
  • Gradual cuts implies 100 bps of easing over the next year.
  • This is closely aligned with market curve currently.
  • That is not necessarily what will unfold, depending on economic conditions.
  • There are conditions where the BoE can go faster.
  • Labour market data is key for my view on rate cuts.
  • Disinflation is unfolding as we would expect.
  • QE is a tool that needs to be there for a crisis.
  • QT is moving the BoE in a healthy direction compared to the past.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive