• Labor market is strong, inflation is not falling as rapidly as last year
• With this week’s CPI report, it’s a good time to remind people the Fed is not data-point dependent
• I need to be fully confident inflation is coming down to 2% before considering a rate cut
• There’s a lot of work to do before we can be confident
• There’s too much discussion of how many rate cuts, rather than what we are trying to accomplish

The market is pricing in a 68% chance of a cut in July. We will need a turn lower in inflation data if that’s going to happen.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

„My expectation is sooner than later,“ Biden said when asked how imminent an attack by Iran on Israel was.

„We are devoted to the defense of Israel. We will support Israel, we will defend–help defend Israel and Iran will not succeed,“ he also said.

The market has priced out some of the worries but we won’t find out how much angst is in the market unless nothing happens on the weekend. So it goes with macro trading.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Australian dollar is nearing the February low of 0.6443 as it rests just 14 pips above. AUD/USD traded as high as 0.6644 on Tuesday but traded down sharply on the hot US CPI report and has continued lower today as the dollar breaks higher against a number of currencies.

Though much of the move is broad USD strength, the Australian dollar is particularly soft accounting to broader risk aversion. It’s not benefiting from higher metals prices and improving China growth prospects but those are notable themes to watch.

Ominously, both CAD and NZD are trading at the lowest levels since November. The commodity-driven trio tend to trade together so it may be a struggle for AUD to hold the Feb low. If it breaks, the November low was 0.6339 and the October low was 0.6270.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

BoJ Quarterly Survey Shows Households Pessimistic on Inflation

German CPI m/m 0.4% vs 0.4% expected

U.K. GDP m/m 0.1 vs 0.1% expected

ECB’s Stournaras Supports Divergence from the Fed’s Policies

French CPI m/m 0.2 vs 0.2% expected

Spanish CPI m/m 0.8% vs 0.8% expected

USD/JPY hits highest level since mid-1990 at 153.34

ECB’s Muller says Slower Inflation Rises the Chances of a June Rate Cut

ECB survey shows inflation expectations unchanged across all horizons.

Fed Collins: Rate Hike not Part of Baseline but Not Fully Ruled Out

Markets:

The Dollar continued its strengthening during the European session, but a correction is likely.

Crude oil also rises due to geopolitical events.

Gold reached record highs.

USD/JPY trading near 153.30.

European bourses were in the green today.

This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.

Former Fed Chair Bernanke’s recommendations:

BoE should de-emphasise the central forecast based on market interest rate expectations.

Fan charts should be eliminated and uncertainty conveyed in a more qualitative way.

Central forecasts should be augmented with topical scenarios.

Bank of England’s main forecast model should be replaced or thoroughly revamped.

Incremental quarterly updates to BoE forecasts may slow recognition of bigger structural changes.

This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 8.7%.

New Loans 3,090.0B vs 3,700.0B expected; prior 1,450.0 trillion yuan ($201.5 billion).

Outstanding Loan Growth y/y 9.6% vs 9.9% expected; prior 10.1%.

Chinese Total Social Financing 4,870.0B vs 4,700.0B expected; prior 1,560.0B.

This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no
  change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and
  the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the
  unemployment rate lower.
• The US CPI beat expectations for the third
  consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.
• The US NFP beat expectations across the board
  although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with
  the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to
  the lowest level in 4 years.
• The market now expects the first rate cut in
  September.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and
  finally dropped the tightening bias.
• The
  last Monthly CPI report came in line with
  expectations although the underlying inflation measure increased from the prior
  month.
• The
  latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling
  further into contraction while the Services PMI continue to increase and remain
  in expansion.
• The
  market expects the first rate cut in August.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD got
rejected by the key 0.6623 resistance and sold
off all the way back to the key support zone around the 0.65 handle. Today the
price broke down and the sellers are now targeting the 0.6443 low. That’s where
we will likely find the buyers stepping in with a defined risk below the level
to position for a rally back into the 0.6623 resistance.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
yesterday bounced on the 0.65 support zone but got rejected by the minor
resistance zone around the 0.6550 level where we had also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. The
sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the zone to position for a drop
into the 0.6443 low and increase the bearish bets as soon as the price broke
down. The buyers might try to step in around the recent low at 0.6480, although
the 0.6443 level looks much better from a risk management perspective.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price is starting to diverge
with the MACD
as it approaches the 0.6480 low. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum
often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be a signal
for a bounce on the low, but the sellers will likely sell an eventual rally
into the trendline to position for a break into new lows.

Upcoming Events

Today we conclude the week with the University of
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

She says two rate cuts are possible for 2024 and expects inflation pressure to wane later this year. She noted we can’t pre-judge when the Fed can start cutting rates.

This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.

The Finance
Magnates Africa Summit (FMAS:24) will be here in a few weeks, with the
countdown officially underway to the biggest event of the year in Africa in
2024. FMAS:24 returns for its second year in Sandton City, South Africa on May
20-22, 2024, at the luxurious Sandton Convention Centre. With so many benefits
to attending, this is one event you cannot afford to miss!

As the
largest in Africa, FMAS:24 will be providing many unique opportunities for
professionals in the financial services industry to come together and exchange
ideas, insights, and best practices.

The premium
event brings together industry leaders, innovators, and experts from across
Africa and beyond, offers a platform for networking, learning, and
collaboration.

With a focus
on the latest trends, challenges, and future insights shaping the finance sphere
in Africa, FMAS:24 provides attendees with valuable knowledge and actionable
insights to help them set up operations in Africa or take their business or
trading to the next level.

Registration
is already live for FMAS:24 and can be accessed via the following
link. Make sure to register online ahead of the event to avoid lengthy
queues on-site!

Why
Attend FMAS:24 This May

Diverse
Networking Opportunities

Anything can
happen on the exhibition floor at FMAS:24. Attendees can network with traders,
investors, businesses, and industry leaders from around the world, and build
valuable connections for your future endeavors.

Insightful
Discussions

With
face-to-face engagement and a curated content track spanning four industry
verticals, participants will be at the vanguard of any trends. Stay ahead with
in-depth conversations about the latest topics and opportunities in Africa’s
financial sector.

Forge New
Partnerships

Establish new
and long-lasting partnerships and collaborations with the industry’s biggest
talent, brands, and experts in a one-of-a-kind environment.

Explore
Investments

Africa is
the continent filled with potential. Participants can discover unique
investment opportunities within the African region, allowing anyone the chance
to diversify their portfolio and unlock potential growth avenues.

Engage and
Network with Experts

Network and
interact with expert speakers who will share their wealth of knowledge and
experiences, offering invaluable perspectives to inspire and guide your
journey.

Diverse
Agenda in Focus at FMAS:24

FMAS:24 will
feature a newly expanded content track covering two stages. This includes the
newly launched Trader Zone, which caters to a growing retail trading demographic.

Look for
plenty of insightful
discussions to take place across each of these stages during the two-day
event. Topics will cover four industry verticals, including online trading, fintech,
payments, and blockchain & digital assets.

Register Today for the Biggest Event of the Year in Africa!

These
sessions, panels, workshops, and more will be given by leading CEOs, policymakers,
fintech entrepreneurs, and investors. FMAS:24 will bring together a diverse
range of voices and perspectives to offer attendees a comprehensive
understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing the industry.

By hearing
from industry leaders and experts, attendees can gain valuable insights, learn
from real-world experiences, and stay ahead of the curve and map out the rest
of 2024 and beyond.

This article was written by Jeff Patterson at www.forexlive.com.

• Responsible wage formation benefits the Swedish economy.
• My view at the last monetary policy meeting in March was that the development of inflation looked so favorable that it might have been possible to cut the interest rate even at that stage.
• The important thing, however, is that the development of inflation does not deteriorate.
• If that does not happen, as I see it, the threat to being able cutting the interest rate in May will instead come mainly from the postponement of the rate-cutting plans of other central banks.
• This risks weakening the krona, which in turn could push up inflation again going forward, in the worst case scenario in a serious way.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.