The Nasdaq is slowly
crawling back to the all-time high. The market continues to look forward to the
next year with Trump’s policies being a positive driver for growth.

The only bearish reason we
had for the stock market was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally
bearish only when the Fed is tightening policy though not when yields rise on
positive growth expectations.

Right now, the Fed’s
reaction function is that a strong economy would warrant an earlier pause in
the easing cycle and not a tightening. That should still be supportive for the
stock market in the bigger picture.

If the Fed’s reaction
function were to change to a potential tightening, then that will likely
trigger a big correction in the stock market on expected economic slowdown. For
now, the pullbacks look as something healthy and opportunities to buy the dips.

Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq continues to slowly rise towards the all-time high. The
buyers continue to lean on the major trendline to position for new highs. The sellers,
on the other hand, will need to see the price falling below the trendline to
start targeting a correction into the 20K level.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rejections from the trendline as the dip-buyers continue
to pile in at every pullback. We have a minor resistance
around the 21050 level. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher
to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the
other hand, will likely step in around the resistance to position for a break
below the major trendline.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline acting as resistance. A break above
it should see the buyers increasing the bullish momentum into the 21050
resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely lean on it to position for
a drop into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• There is no trade off between financial stability and growth
• Stress testing will help with competitiveness of financial sector
• Not seeing signs of higher corporate distress in relation to the budget
• Have to watch for how the effects of the budget will pass through
• BOE has sought to deliver financial stability while also supporting the economy (Breeden)
• We do not consider motor finance to be a risk to financial stability (Woods)

For those interested, the full results of the stress testing on the financial system can be found here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P 500 is slowly
crawling back to the all-time high. The market continues to look forward to the
next year with Trump’s policies being a positive driver for growth.

The only bearish reason we
had for the stock market was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally
bearish only when the Fed is tightening policy though not when yields rise on
positive growth expectations.

Right now, the Fed’s
reaction function is that a strong economy would warrant an earlier pause in
the easing cycle and not a tightening. That should still be supportive for the
stock market in the bigger picture.

If the Fed’s reaction
function were to change to a potential tightening, then that will likely
trigger a big correction in the stock market on expected economic slowdown. For
now, the pullbacks look as something healthy and opportunities to buy the dips.

S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 recovered all the losses and it’s now back near the
all-time high. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to
increase the bullish bets into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will
likely step in around these levels to position for a drop back into the major trendline
around the 5900 level.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for new
highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish
bets into the major trendline.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we are having a pretty slow and choppy price action these days due to
the holidays. This could lead to fake breakouts due to the intraday noise. The
sellers will want to see the price falling below the higher low around the 6017
level to start targeting new lows, while the buyers will likely pile in around
these levels to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.9%
• HICP +1.6% vs +1.5% y/y expected
• Prior +1.0%

The nudge higher owes to base effects, similar to the rest of the euro area. However, core annual inflation is also seen marginally higher on the month – up from 1.8% in October to 1.9% in November. That said, it is still holding under 2% so that’s some comfort for the ECB as compared to the likes of Germany.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +2.0%
• Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.8% y/y expected
• Prior +2.7%

The headline estimate may have nudged higher in November, largely due to base effects, but the core estimate remains steady at 2.7%. If anything, it reaffirms a 25 bps rate cut for next month as the disinflation path remains bumpy in the euro area. Looking at the details, services inflation did come down a little from 4.0% in October to 3.9% in November.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

We continue to see a
pullback in the US Dollar as the market kind of reached the peak in the
repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to
price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025.

This was signalled by the
lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data with the market’s
pricing remaining largely unchanged around three rate cuts by the end of 2025.
We might see the greenback remaining on the backfoot at least until the US CPI
due in two weeks.

On the NZD side, the RBNZ
this week cut interest rates by 50 bps as expected but overall was less dovish
than the market’s aggressive view. Right now, the market sees a 68% chance of a
25 bps cut in February 2025 and a total of 88 bps of easing by the end of next
year.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD probed below the key support zone around the 0.5850 level but eventually
rallied back above it. We are now approaching a key resistance around the
0.5912 level.

This is where we can expect
the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for
a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have also the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level standing around the 0.5912 resistance. This should
technically strengthen the resistance zone. Again, the sellers will look for a
rejection around the resistance, while the buyers will look for a break to the
upside to position for a rally into the 0.6050 level next.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline
defining the current pullback into the resistance. If we were to get a pullback
into it, we can expect the buyers to lean on it to position for a break above
the resistance, while the sellers will look for a break below it to increase
the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Check your diaries and make sure you’re free! It’s nearly time for iFX EXPO Dubai 2025, as the renowned online trading event returns to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region once again – bigger, busier, and better than ever before.

Set to be one of the largest and most prominent B2B and B2C expos ever held in MENA, iFX EXPO Dubai 2025 takes place at the impressive Dubai World Trade Centre, featuring 2+ days of networking, learning, and inspiration between 14-16 January.

Whether you’re a trader, broker, affiliate, IB, fintech, or service provider, make sure you secure your spot early, as this is an expo you won’t want to miss. Expect to meet leading industry figures from the financial world, with 7k+ attendees from 120+ countries, 1.6k companies, and 100+ expert speakers set to attend.

As MENA’s no.1 destination of choice for leading brands across the financial sector, a number of established firms have already been confirmed as official sponsors, including Exness, TradeLocker, Vantage, TradingPRO, Centiwise, CPT Markets, and FundingPips to name a few.

An essential learning hub

Alongside the vast array of networking opportunities and industry insights at iFX EXPO Dubai 2025, the educational aspect forms an integral part of the event, with a range of learning sessions available to businesses and traders alike.

iFX EXPO acts as a platform for all attendees to explore partnerships, discover growth opportunities, gain leads, and learn within a professional setting. Offering a unique platform for knowledge-sharing and growth, the expo features numerous speaker sessions, Q&As, and panel discussions hosted across three separate, designated spaces: Speaker Hall, Idea Hub, and Traders Arena.

Key individuals scheduled to speak include Nameer Khan (Chairman & Founder MENA Fintech Association / FILS), Ahmed Allam (Financial Expert, H.H. The Ruler’s Court of Dubai), Kavish Ahuja (Partnerships Lead, Middle East & Africa, Payoneer), and Prasad Khambalikar (Regional Director, Banking & Financial Services, Europe, Oracle), among many others.

Some of the standout sessions, which are expected to be highly popular among attendees, include:

• License to Bill: The Art of Payment Mastery (Speaker Hall)

• The Fast and the Fintech: MENA’s Race to Innovate (Speaker Hall)

• Golden Bytes: Turning Currency into Gold in MENA (Speaker Hall)

• Success Stories: How to Thrive & Survive in The UAE Startup Ecosystem (Idea Hub)

• UAE: Are We Talking About the New Powerhouse for Prop-Trading? (Idea Hub)

• Trader’s Upgrade – Step Up Your Game: How to Become IBs & Affiliates in MENA (Traders Arena)

Exclusive accommodation and flight offer

Attendees at iFX EXPO Dubai can activate special discounts on both their travel and accommodation, with the event organisers putting in place special arrangements in partnership with Emirates and 25hours Hotel Dubai One Central.

By using the promotional code ‘EVE625F’, travellers booking their flights between gateway cities served by Emirates can receive between 5-10% off travel into Dubai between 9-21 January 2025, with return flights no later than 31 January 2025.

Also, guests choosing to stay in close proximity to the expo floor can unlock an exclusive discount on stays at 25hours Hotel Dubai One Central, with various room types available on a bed and breakfast basis for a special reduced rate.

Dubai awaits! Secure your spot today

With the new year just around the corner, anticipation is already building ahead of the latest edition of iFX EXPO Dubai. Industry players from all over the world are preparing to head to the UAE’s premier financial hub to experience the best expo MENA has to offer.

Those interested in attending are strongly encouraged to secure their place ahead of time, with the early bird offer for the P3 Category (PSP, Technology Providers, Service Providers, and Media) set to expire on 5 December. Individuals can view this and all the other pass categories by heading to the registration page here.

Remember to follow all the latest iFX EXPO news and announcements on social media via LinkedIn, Facebook, X, and Instagram.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -12.5
• Economic confidence 95.8 vs 95.1 expected
• Prior 95.6; revised to 95.7
• Industrial confidence -11.1 vs -13.2 expected
• Prior -13.0; revised to -12.6
• Services confidence 5.3 vs 6.2 expected
• Prior 7.1; revised to 6.8

Slight delay in the release by the source. Economic sentiment in the euro area actually improved on the month but the devil is in the details. It was to do with better sentiment in the industrial sector, though keeping in negative territory. As for services sentiment, that deteriorated again on the month. As such, the outlook remains more challenging for the Eurozone especially with the prospect of Trump tariffs on the horizon.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

We continue to see a
pullback in the US Dollar as the market kind of reached the peak in the
repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to
price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025.

This was signalled by the
lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data with the market’s
pricing remaining largely unchanged around three rate cuts by the end of 2025.
We might see the greenback remaining on the backfoot at least until the US CPI
due in two weeks.

On the AUD side, the market
doesn’t expect the RBA to cut rates in December but sees two rate cuts in 2025.
The Australian economic data remains solid while inflation continues to fall
slowly keeping the RBA in a neutral stance.

AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD is stuck in a range between the 0.6440 support and the 0.6540 resistance. The market
participants will likely keep on playing the range until we get a breakout on
either side.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a very strong resistance zone around the 0.6540 level where we
can find the confluence of the major trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

That’s where we can expect
the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for
the continuation of the downtrend. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for
a rally into the next resistance at 0.6687.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current pullback into
the resistance. The buyers will likely lean on it to keep pushing higher, while
the sellers will look for a break lower to target new lows. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Fed: 16 bps (65% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 75 bps

• ECB: 29 bps (85% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 147 bps

• BoE: 4 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 71 bps

• BoC: 30 bps (82% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 92 bps

• RBA: 2 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 54 bps

• RBNZ: 33 bps (67% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 87 bps

• SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 13 bps (53% probability of rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 48 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.