• Prior -10.6%
• Market index 171.5 vs 181.6 prior
• Purchase index 127.6 vs 133.6 prior
• Refinance index 395.9 vs 427.0 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.04% vs 7.06% prior

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Pleased with recent shift in expectations
• Headline disinflation is going quicker than expected but core prices still remain uncertain
• Prefers June rate cut, then „smooth and steady cycle of policy easing“

The odds of an April rate cut are now just at ~37%, with a June rate cut fully priced in. Meanwhile, the total rate cuts priced in for the year is 91 bps. That is quite a drastic shift compared to where we were just two months ago as seen here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin has been rising steadily in February amid a
positive risk sentiment as the central banks ended their tightening cycles and
are now looking for the right moment to start easing their policies. Recession
fears have also dissipated with resilient economic data and even some
reacceleration lately. Moreover, the market is also looking forward to the
halving event set for April.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin continues
to surge to new highs amid a positive risk sentiment and lots of FOMO. The
price is now a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move.

Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk
management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup
around the previous resistance at 52858
where we can also find the confluence with the
trendline and the
daily 21 moving average. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking below the trendline to invalidate the bullish setup and position
for a drop into the next major trendline around the 45000 level.

Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price bounced on the red 21 moving average today and we can also notice a divergence with
the MACD. This
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. The sellers will want to see the price breaking below the black
trendline to pile in and target a drop into the 52858 support. The buyers, on
the other hand, will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it
to target new highs.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow we will see the US PCE and the latest US
Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US ISM
Manufacturing PMI.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -16.1
• Economic confidence 95.4 vs 96.7 expected
• Prior 96.2; revised to 96.1
• Industrial confidence -9.5 vs -9.2 expected
• Prior -9.4; revised to -9.3
• Services confidence 6.0 vs 9.0 expected
• Prior 8.8; revised to 8.4

Euro area economic sentiment worsened in February, with both industrial and services confidence also slipping. That’s not a good take on the look and feel of the economy to start the year thus far. Of note, consumer inflation expectations also increased from 12.0 to 15.5 – which is the highest since March last year. That might present some concerns for the ECB to look at for the months ahead, if the trend persists.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

European indices are lower but not seeing as heavy losses as US futures though for now. The DAX is still up 0.1% with the Eurostoxx and CAC 40 both down by only 0.1% so far. But the UK FTSE is down 0.5% while the IBEX is down 0.3% on the day. The main drag though is in US futures, with S&P 500 futures now down 0.5%.

There’s not much news driving the drop as it appears to be selling flows coming in as European traders enter the fray. Nasdaq futures are also marked down by 0.6% while Dow futures are lower by 0.4% currently. So, the selling isn’t just solely tech-related.

If anything, this could relate to some month-end rebalancing flows. Bonds are keeping slightly bid still, with 10-year Treasury yields down 2.4 bps to 4.291% on the day.

As equities stumble, the dollar is still finding itself more bid so far on the session. EUR/USD is now down 0.4% to 1.0798 while GBP/USD is down 0.5% to 1.2625 currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been a quiet one in Europe as traders seem content to sit on their hands so far this week. It’s been a case of markets getting caught in a lull amid a lack of key economic data releases. And not even the usual month-end messiness is able to breathe life into things over the last two days.

In FX, major currencies are largely muted today with very little changes for the most part. It is only USD/JPY which is down slightly as noted here. Even then, the pair touched a low of 150.11 before bouncing slightly to 150.34 now and invalidating the near-term break earlier.

Besides that, the bond market continues to hold more sideways while equities are taking a breather after last week’s strong gains. So, there really isn’t much to work with for the time being.

Coming up later, we do have US durable goods orders to add to the mix. It isn’t the most crucial of economic releases but it is one of the few second-rate ones on the data docket this week. That could help to inject some volatility into things besides potential month-end flows this week.

Otherwise, this lull looks set to continue until we get to the first week of March. That is when central bank focus and the US non-farm payrolls will help to breathe some life into markets again.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Finance
Magnates Africa Summit (FMAS:24) is set to take center stage once again this
May in South Africa. As one of the biggest summits in Africa in 2024, the premium
event will look to shine a spotlight on retail traders across the continent on
May 20-22 in Sandton City.

Africa
continues to evolve in 2024, propelled by a growing population and demographics
that make it very conducive to growth and interest from brokers and technology providers.

FMAS:24
looks to serve as a crucial platform for new and existing retail traders to connect,
exchange insights, and explore opportunities in the dynamic markets of the
region.

With a focus
on empowering
traders, the event promises to deliver invaluable perspectives, strategies,
and networking opportunities tailored to meet the needs of professionals
operating in Africa’s burgeoning financial ecosystem.

Leading
Talent and Traders Expected at FMAS:24

Retail
traders and investors play a pivotal role in driving liquidity, innovation, and
efficiency in Africa’s financial markets. From seasoned professionals to
emerging talent, FMAS:24 will welcome participants from all corners of the
industry, offering a diverse and inclusive environment for knowledge-sharing
and collaboration.

Through a
series of engaging panel discussions, keynote speeches, and interactive
workshops, attendees can also gain actionable insights into market trends,
investment strategies, and regulatory developments shaping the future of
finance in Africa.

One of the
key themes of FMAS:24 will be the democratization of trading and opportunities
across the continent with reliable brokers. As technology continues to
democratize access to financial markets, retail traders and individual
investors are increasingly playing a significant role in driving liquidity and
shaping market dynamics.

The summit
will explore the implications of this trend, highlighting the opportunities and
challenges associated with retail participation in African markets and offering
strategies.

Through
dedicated sessions and networking opportunities, FMAS:24 aims to facilitate
meaningful engagement between all attendees. This includes face-to-face
engagement, fostering collaboration, and unlocking new investment opportunities
across the continent.

Furthermore,
the event will delve into the rapidly growing landscape of digital assets and
blockchain technology, which are poised to revolutionize the way traders and
investors access and manage their assets.

Wide
Range of Topics to Be Discussed

From
cryptocurrencies to digital securities, the summit will explore the
opportunities and challenges presented by these emerging asset classes,
offering insights into regulatory developments, investment strategies, and risk
management practices tailored to the African context.

By bringing
together experts, innovators, and industry players, attendees can learn everything
they need to take their trading to the next level or simply get started.

A full rollout
of the summit’s agenda will be released in a manner of weeks so stay tuned. Attendees
can expect a full slate of sessions dedicated to exploring opportunities in the
retail trading space and much more. Registration for FMAS:24 is now live and can
be accessed via the following
link.

Moreover,
the FMAS:24 will offer attendees a unique opportunity to network with peers,
industry leaders, and potential partners from across the continent and beyond.

Networking
has been a cornerstone of the summit, enabling participants to establish
valuable connections, exchange ideas, and explore collaboration opportunities
in a dynamic and supportive environment.

Whether
through formal networking sessions, one-on-one meetings, or casual interactions
during coffee breaks and social events, attendees will have ample opportunities
to expand their professional network and unlock new opportunities for growth
and collaboration.

Take Your
Trading to the Next Level This May

FMAS:24
stands as a testament to the vibrancy and potential of Africa’s financial
markets, with a special focus on traders and investors who are driving
innovation, liquidity, and growth across the continent. By bringing together
industry stakeholders, thought leaders, and innovators, the summit provides a
platform for dialogue, collaboration, and knowledge-sharing aimed at unlocking
new opportunities and driving positive change in Africa’s financial ecosystem.

As traders
and investors converge on this prestigious event, they will gain valuable
insights, forge meaningful connections, and be inspired to seize the abundant
opportunities that lie ahead in Africa’s dynamic and evolving markets.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday,
the Nasdaq Composite didn’t move much although the market ended the day at the
lows. There was no catalyst to trigger a big move on either side, so we
continue to consolidate around these levels with the price slowly retreating
from the highs. The path of least resistance remains to the upside as the economic data points not only to resilience in the economy but
also a slight reacceleration in activity. The main risks for the market are
basically two: a reacceleration in inflation that forces the Fed to increase
interest rates or a hard landing.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite continues to retreat after coming very close to the all-time high.
From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to
reward setup around the trendline where we
can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the 15150 support.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that
the price has been diverging with
the MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we got pullbacks into the bottom
trendline where the price kept on bouncing from as the buyers continued to pile
in. We can also notice that we might have formed a rising wedge right
at the all-time high. It will be important for the buyers to break out into new
highs as a break lower could trigger a selloff into the base of the wedge at
14477.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have
a support zone around the 15900 level where we can also find the 38.2%
Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. This is where we can expect the
buyers to pile in with a defined risk below the trendline to target a new
all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, can only wait for a break below
the trendline to position for a bigger drop into the 14477 level.

Upcoming
Events

Today we get the release of the US Consumer
Confidence report. On Thursday, we will see the US PCE and the latest US
Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US
ISM Manufacturing PMI.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The model indicates „a moderate USD selling signal against most majors, with a strong signal in EUR/USD“. Adding that most of the selling pressure against the dollar „should be seen in non-commodity G10“.

Meanwhile, Citi’s month-end asset rebalancing model suggests that there should be outflows from equities and inflows into fixed income „for investors who target constant proportional asset allocation“.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

🚀 Why is Bitcoin soaring? A quick look into the recent BTCUSD price surge 🌟

Bitcoin’s recent meteoric rise has the crypto world buzzing! Here’s why the digital gold is shining brighter than ever:

🌬️ Bitcoin regulatory tailwinds 📈

The buzz around the US’s approval of a Bitcoin futures ETF has sent waves of optimism across the market. This key regulatory nod 🎉 opens the doors wide for institutional investors to jump into the Bitcoin bandwagon, potentially driving up demand (and prices)!

🛠️ Technological leaps 🌐

The Bitcoin network’s got a shiny new upgrade called Taproot, enhancing privacy, efficiency, and smart contract capabilities. This isn’t just a tech boost; it’s a magnet for investors looking for cutting-edge solutions in the crypto space.

🍂 Seasonal influences 📊

Ever noticed Bitcoin tends to get a year-end bonus? Historical trends show significant price spikes in Q4, making the last quarter of the year a potentially lucrative period for Bitcoin enthusiasts.

🏃‍♂️ Market dynamics: The FOMO effect 💸

The recent price surge? It’s partly thanks to „panic buying.“ Fear of missing out as prices climb has investors scrambling to get their piece of the Bitcoin pie, pushing prices even higher.

🏦 Institutional appetite 📈

MicroStrategy’s recent shopping spree, nabbing around 3,000 BTC, has highlighted the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin. This move not only shows confidence in Bitcoin’s future but also signals to other institutional players that the crypto market is ripe for investment.

⏳ The halvening horizon 🔮

The clock is ticking towards the next Bitcoin halving, expected to reduce the rate at which new Bitcoins are created. This scarcity mechanism has historically led to price increases, making it a key event to watch.

🗣️ Market psychology: Buying the rumors 💬

There’s a current trend of trading on speculation, with investors eagerly buying into rumors of what the future holds for Bitcoin. This sentiment is fueling the current bullish momentum in the market.

Remember, bitcoin traders and investors, the crypto market is as volatile as it gets. While these factors paint a bullish picture, doing your homework and proceeding with caution is key. Remember to visit ForexLive.com for various views, analyses and updates! 🚀✨

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.